Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

My unified theory for P2 realignment as it sits right now:
There are 6 programs left that add value to the B1G or SEC: Notre Dame, UVA, UNC, Clemson, FSU, Miami, with Miami being the least of these.

That leads to 2 probable scenarios for realignment:

Scenario 1: SEC chaos
Notre Dame, UVA, UNC -> B1G
Clemson, FSU, Miami -> SEC
The rumored 4th candidate here for the B1G is Stanford. Builds out west coast, rival for Notre Dame, fantastic academics.
The chaos is the SEC has no obvious 4th candidate. One lucky, undeserving school gets a free ticket to P2. Who will it be? Your guess is better than mine.

Scenario 2: B1G chaos
UVA, UNC, Clemson, FSU -> SEC
In this scenario Notre Dame is still an obvious take for the B1G, but is Miami? They're on an island, and borderline for adding enough value to begin with. Maybe the B1G adds Stanford, UO, and UW instead.

There are other possibilities of course, but I see these two as the most likely.

Rumors that Oregon/Washington don’t bring value to big ten are posturing imho.

They are dragging it out to do things in a similar manner to how big 12 was picked apart without serious legal issue.
 
Anybody not willing to take Oregon state and/or Washington state if it brings Oregon and/or Washington doesn’t understand all of this. It’s not just about increasing your slice of the pie. Oregon State and Washington state obviously won’t do that. It’s about crippling your competition. The next exit of the pac 10 is the end of the conference…solidifying the big 12 long-term stability. This isn’t that hard.
 
Rumors that Oregon/Washington don’t bring value to big ten are posturing imho.

They are dragging it out to do things in a similar manner to how big 12 was picked apart without serious legal issue.
I think it is so they can keep hounding ND. If they can get ND, I only see one other team coming with them. They may give ND the option of who they want to sweeten the deal.
 
Anybody not willing to take Oregon state and/or Washington state if it brings Oregon and/or Washington doesn’t understand all of this. It’s not just about increasing your slice of the pie. Oregon State and Washington state obviously won’t do that. It’s about crippling your competition. The next exit of the pac 10 is the end of the conference…solidifying the big 12 long-term stability. This isn’t that hard.
If you get any two schools, it basically folds the PAC, or at least hamstrings it. Take an arizona and a colorado if you have to, and it does the same thing, and puts pressure on UO and UW. Then you can possibly get them and not the state schools.
 
What if oregon st was the price to get oregon, ie they were a pair only. And both signed a strong GoR?
Not advocating for or against, but i think there could be scenarios where it makes sense. Not a lot, but a few.

I still think you try to take 4 to 6 now, then 4 to 6 from ACC whenever that implodes, and have 24 teams in a nice cross country conference/league.
I don't think it's a net gain with both Oregons. Then when Oregon gets the golden ticket someday we're stuck with the ugly little brother.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: SEIOWA CLONE
Does Mesaclone post here? I vaguely remember him from when I used to subscribe to Cyclone Report. He has a comment at the end of this post about a rumor that Yormark and Phil Knight are meeting this weekend. Where did this rumor come from?


He posted some racist stuff over there when I was a regular. Reason I originally left that site, admins sided with the slurs vs people upset with slurs.

He was here briefly and that didn’t go over as well.
 
Anybody not willing to take Oregon state and/or Washington state if it brings Oregon and/or Washington doesn’t understand all of this. It’s not just about increasing your slice of the pie. Oregon State and Washington state obviously won’t do that. It’s about crippling your competition. The next exit of the pac 10 is the end of the conference…solidifying the big 12 long-term stability. This isn’t that hard.
There are many paths to cripple the PAC without picking up their bottom feeders schools. They are already on life support. One or two more defections seals the deal regardless of the details. If you can get the Arizona schools for example, the deal is done. Then there is no leverage remaining for the other schools. Oregon and Washington would find a way to ditch the baggage to make sure they at least end up with a seat at the table.
 
I think it is so they can keep hounding ND. If they can get ND, I only see one other team coming with them. They may give ND the option of who they want to sweeten the deal.

It’s something like that.

UCLA was likely the same to get USC.

The rumor that a conference makes less money by adding just one of them doesn’t seem accurate. If it’s true I’d be skeptical that even Clemson adds value, it’d be just ND left and expansion would be over before acc ever gets touched in meaningful way.
 
  • Like
Reactions: STLISU
I’d gladly pay maybe 20/mo if espn plus was just all of espn.

Unless ISU gets a streaming deal somewhere else, then they probably get zero from me.

I’d be willing to pay $30/mo. Don’t understand why espn doesn’t do that though.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: HFCS
Anybody not willing to take Oregon state and/or Washington state if it brings Oregon and/or Washington doesn’t understand all of this. It’s not just about increasing your slice of the pie. Oregon State and Washington state obviously won’t do that. It’s about crippling your competition. The next exit of the pac 10 is the end of the conference…solidifying the big 12 long-term stability. This isn’t that hard.

If Oregon St and Washington st left the PAC 10. They'd just add Boise, Fresno, SDSU, Gonzaga in MBB and maybe St Mary's in MBB and be in a stronger position
 
  • Agree
Reactions: isucy86
I like the idea of adding Arizona schools. We are recruiting Arizona hard. They have to feel like the Big 12 is their best choice. Take the Arizona schools and watch the fallout. The revenue numbers will not be good for PAC 12.
 
It’s something like that.

UCLA was likely the same to get USC.

The rumor that a conference makes less money by adding just one of them doesn’t seem accurate. If it’s true I’d be skeptical that even Clemson adds value, it’d be just ND left and expansion would be over before acc ever gets touched in meaningful way.
By doing both, you basically make LA a Big ten town for college. Leave one and you have just an island of USC there. I think the Big ten wants to push to the P2 and the PAC was a small obstacle in their way.
 
Anybody not willing to take Oregon state and/or Washington state if it brings Oregon and/or Washington doesn’t understand all of this. It’s not just about increasing your slice of the pie. Oregon State and Washington state obviously won’t do that. It’s about crippling your competition. The next exit of the pac 10 is the end of the conference…solidifying the big 12 long-term stability. This isn’t that hard.

The thing is people think there are other ways to do that.

If that’s the only way because the mountain schools are committed to never leaving but somehow all 4 pnw schools want to leave I’d agree. I think it’s far more likely the mountain schools trigger implosion.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jakemcilroy
Just out of curiosity... do the G5 conferences have tv rights contracts locked in for x amount of years? However long they are? When are those up? I'm to lazy to look it up.

My fear is that ESPN or Fox or whoever else decides it's cheaper to just transition payments from those conferences to prop up the PAC12. Sucks for the G5 leagues, but if you think about it, what are those schools going to do? Switch conferences?

I'm worried that ESPN will shift money to keep the PAC12 alive.
 
Just out of curiosity... do the G5 conferences have tv rights contracts locked in for x amount of years? However long they are? When are those up? I'm to lazy to look it up.

My fear is that ESPN or Fox or whoever else decides it's cheaper to just transition payments from those conferences to prop up the PAC12. Sucks for the G5 leagues, but if you think about it, what are those schools going to do? Switch conferences?

I'm worried that ESPN will shift money to keep the PAC12 alive.

That’s probably how the worst Iowa fans have felt after the past 3 rounds of realignment with a wet dream of ISU joining the MAC.
 
There are many paths to cripple the PAC without picking up their bottom feeders schools. They are already on life support. One or two more defections seals the deal regardless of the details. If you can get the Arizona schools for example, the deal is done. Then there is no leverage remaining for the other schools. Oregon and Washington would find a way to ditch the baggage to make sure they at least end up with a seat at the table.
^^This. I’m sure the BigXII has or will get numbers from Fox on different packages and configurations ranging from 2-10 PAC schools. Not that I think 10 would makes sense, I’d put the cap at 6.

Those that add value, earn their keep, or are close to earning their keep and have growth potential would be the targets. The PAC is going to be a distant 5th, well behind the Big XII and ACC.

I could see 6 schools wanting to make it work. WA, OR and Stanford because they hope a Big 10 invite is coming. Cal, WA St and OR St because the PAC is their only power conference choice.

That leave AZ, AZ St, CO and Utah. Utah might think they have a shot at the Big 10 (which would be…shocking). The other three have to see the PAC isn’t going to get any better, and the Big XII or ACC Is their best-case scenario. What’s the point of sticking around for less money?

And yes, if the PAC loses on or two more the rush is on for the exits.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: AlaCyclone
Just out of curiosity... do the G5 conferences have tv rights contracts locked in for x amount of years? However long they are? When are those up? I'm to lazy to look it up.

My fear is that ESPN or Fox or whoever else decides it's cheaper to just transition payments from those conferences to prop up the PAC12. Sucks for the G5 leagues, but if you think about it, what are those schools going to do? Switch conferences?

I'm worried that ESPN will shift money to keep the PAC12 alive.
Premise, argument, conclusion.
Great questions and ones which should have been answered at the very beginning (ie premise); the most important being 'what was/is ESPN's target revenue?' This, obviously, was the catalyst to OUT. The very next question should've been 'what will our competitors do?' because after all that'll directly impact their 'plan'. From there nearly 100% of everything posted is pure conjecture/speculation. Throw enough darts and someone will be right.
I'm puzzled why people think ESPN has money to throw around. Their balance sheet is crap. Their stock price is reflecting it. This is a HUGE gamble on their part. Obviously there are bean counters out there for ESPN who've pitched and convinced people of their master plan. I prefer to look at it as: these are the same people who probably pitched 'cable' as the solution for everything, but are now pulling up their shorts by raising ESPN+ prices. Talk about a poker play. I think there is tremendous risk in what is playing out; the most important of which will be the 'advertising' and 'streaming' numbers.
But, for everything that's happened I feel darned lucky we were able to add 'the 4'.
 
Just out of curiosity... do the G5 conferences have tv rights contracts locked in for x amount of years? However long they are? When are those up? I'm to lazy to look it up.

My fear is that ESPN or Fox or whoever else decides it's cheaper to just transition payments from those conferences to prop up the PAC12. Sucks for the G5 leagues, but if you think about it, what are those schools going to do? Switch conferences?

I'm worried that ESPN will shift money to keep the PAC12 alive.
They do. I believe both are good through about 2030.

But they only pay schools about $5M a year. I believe BSU's agreement with MWC was for around $8M.

That's why G5 schools want to bump to P5. It's easily $25M more a year.

That said the Playoff money is what props up G5. Even with a 4 team playoff, the G5 schools split 20% of the Playoff TV $.