Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Cyrealist]

Lot of things changed to allow for Nebraska’s fall. Just becuase a school is in a top position doesn’t mean they will stay there. Tenn football, Georgetown/Indiana basketball, etc. There is no rule that OSU and Bama have to remain dominant and NIL is already shifting things.

One could ask whether Nebraska was a true blue-blood or if the simply had a great 30-year run by taking advantage of loopholes in the rules that are shut tight now. The blue bloods have advantages in fan support, money, and media attention that allow them to return to the top fairly quickly even if they have some down years. The exception might be Texas. Their ability to screw things up is unparalleled.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Mentally preparing for the next wave of “news” about the Pac-12 raiding the Big 12.

Just get this over with one way or another

 

[GoldCy]

Seems like years ago the alumni Association had Amtrak trips to Denver and arranged hotels, transport, tickets and tailgating for the CU game. I never got to go because they left before I had a chance but maybe they'll start this again.

It wasn't the AA

 

[Gunnerclone]

Boilerplate statement. What's he gonna say?

What would be great is for an AD to come out and say:
"OMFG we are so screwed and have no idea what to do! I only got hired to puff donations out of alumni, I have no idea how to negotiate a contract or have a strategic vision about things and stuff! Plus I just bought a new Porsche SUV for my mistress and have no idea how to make the payments if we have to play in the Mountain West!"

In my biz we call that “plastic”.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

The big 10 would make a ton more money in an Ohio State vs. nebby rivalry than playing Purdue or MSU. That would help nubby recruiting. The Big 12 taking away the NU and OU rivalry hurt both schools in recruiting and the Big 10 made things even worse for Nebby.

So Nebraska getting boat raced every year against OSU would help their brand/recruiting? OSU vs, Nebraska, sparty and Purdue all drew over 5 mil views last year. Just sparty vs Purdue got over 4 mil. I get that you have your bias but the actual facts don’t match up to your viewpoint

 

[Althetuna]

IMO, the statements put out by Colorado, ASU, etc. is simply giving the PAC-12 some kind of legitimacy to negotiate a new media contract. It's hard to negotiate value for a non-product.

Not doing so would be counterproductive.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

So Nebraska staying in the Big 12 means no one else would have left? I find that hard to believe that Nebraska could hold that much power.

NU took advantage of the opportunity, but they weren’t the ones that initiaTed it with the BIG. TU and company were already talking to th Pac10 and MU was flirting with an uninterested BIG.

 

[HouClone]

This time reminds me of when Clemson and Florida State were "rumored" to be going to the Big 12. Notre Dame joined the ACC and the good expansion news got squashed.

 

[JUKEBOX]

Nebraska's dynasty I believe was combination of good fortune, good timing, and unique circumstances that started to erode after the formation of the Big 12.

They had a lot of things going for themselves during their heyday including:
* Excellent, innovative coaching (and strength program)
* Able to recruit nationally due to limited TV slot availability
* Partial qualifiers
* Walk-on program
* ...

Towards the end, these things started to fall apart, leading to Nebraska's irrational and erratic decision making and current state of the program.

Nebraska fans keep looking to the past in order to reclaim their former glory, but it's unlikely that they will find the success they are looking for there.

Every college football team is on TV now, would-be Nebraska "walk-ons" go to NDSU or Wyoming, and they probably won't be able to get partial qualifiers in the B1G.

Really I think Bo Pelini probably achieved sort of the peak of what modern Nebraska football could look like unless they find the next great coach (chances for that are pretty low I think).

IMO there's not a lot that separates Nebraska from any other midwest team right now besides unrealistic expectations and a storied past over 20 years ago.

Maybe if they can convince Warren Buffett to set up an NIL program, they can have some good seasons lol

 

[Cyrealist]

Yes, they were always going to be second fiddle to those two, but if they were winning they could have been at that second tier with Penn State and Wisconsin. The media is always going to take time to blow a big winner from the chosen conference.

This is really where Nebby was at in the B12 before they left. OU and Texas carried the banner, but Nebby got plenty of attention as long as they were winning.

And they were able to dominate the Big XII North.

 

[Cyrealist]

Colorado and Utah released similar.

It's like an alliance.

 

[CloneJD]

I think it’s unlikely any moves from the pac12 happen soon. It’ll be down the line when faced with a small media deal to sign and being faced with bringing sdsu and boise into their conference.

 

[Boxerdaddy]

To think it matters is asinine. I get our fans are excited about possible matchups, but to bring it up in any fashion as if it matters is ludicrous. FB and FB only moves the needle. Period.

I think your reading comprehension needs some work. No one is saying that it matters as in a factor to weigh schools on inviting them. They're saying it matters to our overall payout and the fact that hopefully the streaming giants get in with this round to bump up our pay. That it's exciting to htink about the possibilities.
We're clearly (at best) #3 in overall TV contracts and there's no way we're keeping up with the BIG or SEC. The only thing that can help close that gap a little at this time is Basketball. If we're far and away the best league for Basketball, that makes our T2 and T3 options go up, which helps our overall take at the end of the year. We could theoretically outpace the SEC or possibly the BIG10 in just T2 or T3 numbers. (Their contracts are structured differently so I don't think there's an apples to apples comparison)

There is more than one "needle" that we care about.

BUT AGAIN, NO ONE IS SAYING IT MATTERS FOR INCLUSION

 

[HFCS]

It doesn't grow viewers -- but it concentrates them.

It allows the braodcasters to lock up the biggest brands and ensure ALL marquee matchups every week. Imagine if all 10 games they broadcast weekly had 6 million viewers, the ad revenue per game is fantastic.

That's what Fox & ESPN think will happen, so that's why they are pushing it that way. Reasonable minds may disagree, but I think that is what they think, and what they are trying to do.

I'm sure the few power players are maximizing short term profits with practically no thought about long term profits. That's pretty much how all of capitalism has always worked with a few visionary exceptions.

 

[cyatheart]

I kind of feel like the Pac 10 opening up negotiations, might end badly for them. Hard to say, but some people are saying this is good for the Pac 10 so they can get in front of the Big 12 or whatever, not so sure.

 

[SCNCY]

My gut feeling that these statements by the schools is to just slow things down. I believe that with the news that the PAC is looking to start their media negotiations now is just a formality. Once they get those preliminary numbers, it will give the schools enough justification to leave.

 

[StLouisClone]

I think it’s unlikely any moves from the pac12 happen soon. It’ll be down the line when faced with a small media deal to sign and being faced with bringing sdsu and boise into their conference.

Yep. I was skeptical the B12 could get it done quickly. The PAC is weaker now. There should be absolutely no reason for anyone in the B12 to leave for the PAC. So now some of the PAC presidents need to decide if it's worth staying together in their cool West Coast club for less money than they would make in the B12.

 

[cyatheart]

My gut feeling that these statements by the schools is to just slow things down. I believe that with the news that the PAC is looking to start their media negotiations now is just a formality. Once they get those preliminary numbers, it will give the schools enough justification to leave.

This exactly, you said it better than I did.

 

[HFCS]

Yep. I was skeptical the B12 could get it done quickly. The PAC is weaker now. There should be absolutely no reason for anyone in the B12 to leave for the PAC. So now some of the PAC presidents need to decide if it's worth staying together in their cool West Coast club for less money than they would make in the B12.

I think for AZ/ASU/Utah that answer is a super obvious no and they are ready to sign up immediately. Not as sure for the others including CU.

In the unlikely event UW/Oregon stick around, they could see some sort of "pie slicing" at 8 the way we did for years at 10.

 

[cyfan92]

If you want to know exactly what WON'T happen. Read a national reporter's take on realignment.

These idiots have not called a single element of the process correctly.

Remember when Stewart Mandel went on the CF Podcast and said streaming meanings nothing.. Big 12 has died 3 times in the past decade.