I'd assume that's a pretty good thing at least if it stretched that long
2022 Recruiting/Transfer Class
- Thread starter LanningIsBakersDaddy
- Start date
Basile is visiting this weekend.
The SI article with ND AD Jack Swarbrick that you mentioned earlier in this thread, Swarbrick says it can't continue. He says what's happening this spring is no longer NIL, but legalized payment for recruits. What was once an NCAA violation is now being done legally under the guise of NIL. He went as far as saying Universities that had the structure to pay recruits/players under the table, have a head start in the new NIL payment scheme.
What I found most interesting in the Swarbrick/SI article was he felt D1 would fracture into 2 groups.
- Schools that prefer the current student/athlete sport model which is under University Administration.
- Schools that license their Name to an outside group, but the sport teams have no direct affiliation with the University.
It would seem before the Big10, Pac12 & Big12 negotiate their next TV Contracts (over the next 3 years), the upcoming NCAA Constitutional Convention would spell-out the direction for D1 Sport.
That article didn't suggest it going away or even lessening. Its entire premise that it would continue, and grow, resulting in a split. What can't continue is the coexistence of the current NCAA structure and the pay to play era.
Swarbrick is a lawyer and apt leader. He is not going to state anything other than the mid-2030's right now. But the fact he just alluded to the ACC death is ahead of even where I thought we were. NIL has greatly expedited getting to a top-40 to top-48 P2.
The GOR is not prohibitive of an earlier end to the ACC. Once it is realized that the ACC has a death sentence, it doesn't take long for the time of death to move up. Swarbrick and Clemson AD/Dabo comments made it clear that the ACC is close to realizing it is dead come 2036. We may even be into the backroom dealings that move up the breakup.
At first there may be some that want a forced union for 14 more years. The UNC types. But they'll be spending nearly $500 million to merely delay the death, which has larger consequence in the pay-to-play era, while also giving up some of their leverage over determining where other schools go.
The only leverage the leftovers and fringe schools have is selling their dissolution vote to ESPN. Every year that passes their value goes down, and if the GOR were to expire, some end up in the American. Best to play nice with ESPN, vote for dissolution, and take an offer to get paid at the ACC rate in the Big 12. The current ACC deal allows that- even without ACC inventory, the new Big 12 deal will be around the current ACC. ESPN benefits by moving the brands it wants to the SEC, removing them hitting free agency, while creating the premier super conference in both sports that facilitates separation.
Yeah, it's hard to tell... You would hope an extended stay would be a good thing.
Butler picked up a F/C commitment today as well. When I dug into it further though, it sounds like they have 5ish spots open. So they need plenty more pieces as well.
That's where you hope that, with our roster being a little more set, it's slightly better selling point to him. Only time will tell.
I guess that is probably it. My friends at Maude’s said they are expecting some hoops recruits this weekend. I took that as plural, but maybe current players are attending
I think you read a different article than I did. Below are excerpts from SI Article:
Asked if the current Name, Image and Likeness landscape is sustainable, the answer was a blunt no. Recruiting inducements were not the original idea, but that’s what NIL has become in many instances.
“This morphed so quickly into talent acquisition fees that it’s just stunning,” he said. “Two things happened. The schools that have been doing [under the table] this a long time just had a way they could describe it now and be covered. That created a whole bunch of pressure on other schools that said, ‘Oh my god, we’ve got to do that, too.’
“We went from what people thought was an overly restrictive market to the most unrestricted labor market in the history of sports.”
Does Swarbrick see NCAA Enforcement having any chance of reining it in?
“No. I hate to be so pessimistic, but it’s been a lot of years of not seeing them have any,” he said. “I can see a lot of that [rules compliance and enforcement] being transferred to the conferences.”
Swarbrick predicts that the current NIL marketplace will severely damage Olympic sports, as investments and donations continue to tilt toward revenue-producing sports.
“I hate to see that,” he said. “It’s going to be interesting to see how the federal government approaches it. If all of this revenue is disproportionately coming to men, even if you didn’t set it up, how does Title IX analyze that?”
The NCAA has a group of Conference Commissioners, Presidents, AD's, etc. developing a working solution to recent court rulings. The party line seems to be the NCAA is no longer effective and that compliance power will be passed to the conferences. The current NIL structure is unregulated, that will change. The transfer portal has created chaos, something will be done there as well.
What Swarbrick described was 2 entities. One being a pay-for-play structure that would be separate from the University. Athletes would no longer have to go to school, just play sport. Basically, a minor league system where colleges licensed their name and either sell or lease their stadiums to the separate entity.
The other entity would be like the traditional student/athlete model under the oversight of an Athletic Department. NIL could still exist in this model, but payments would be for marketing activities of the student athlete.
Surprised Holmes hasn't committed yet. Maybe he ends up somewhere else.
Holmes has been in the portal less than a week and 1 day past his visit. Patience.
That's very doom and gloom, but I can't disagree with your central thesis. If it's obvious to everyone in the ACC that a break up is inevitable AD's and presidents will start planning ahead as soon as possible. OUT started making their deal with the SEC at least 4 years before the B12 contract was set to expire, with none of the pressure their departure has put on the system now and without active NIL stressing AD budgets, so it wouldn't surprise me if the ACC schools start making their moves 10 years out, if they haven't started exploring options already.
The system is getting hammered by escalation. NIL in itself could force change bigger and faster than ever thought. Every new deal an escalation, let alone what next year will be like with more schools preparing their war chests and plans.
Add in OuT, playoff new deal looming, ncaa vs Johnson, and the P12, BIG, Big 12 all having deals in the next 3 years, and we could be as little as 2 years from Armageddon realignment.
I don’t think formal separation can occur without pay to play being ruled in NCAA vs Johnson, which then could make it easier to legally argue the justification that contracts agreed to in amateurism and not applicable to the semi-professional teams licensed by the school
I think the minor league system approach would fail miserably. 95% of current college sports fans would lose interest.
Seeing the forest through all the trees can be tough.
Yes, it will become actual pay to play with some rules and regulations, and there will be separation. What can’t continue is the coexistence of NIL and NCAA amateurism
It’s not going away. These $100+ million entities aren’t going to stop paying a small fraction of that to their most important input. There will be a market to pay athletes, and if a school can’t or won’t, they’ll be at the lower level
I'm just here to read news on recruits. Instead I get to read some posters go on and on about NIL theory.
I guess that's what the ignore button is for.
I guess that's what the ignore button is for.
There will be a market to pay mens basketball and football players. Other athletes will be paid depending on their individual university booster support. Penn State will find a way to pay their wrestlers top dollar. UConn will scour the cabinets to pay their women's basketball team. But a lot of other non revenue generation sports will largely be unchanged.
He's been in the portal for a week (give or take a few days). He'd be foolish to make a decision that quick.
