We all hope that Iowa State and the other Big 12 refugees find a home in a power conference. That’s what would be best for our universities and athletics programs. If that doesn’t happen however and we end up staying in the Big 12, the conference will almost certainly add members.
I decided to compare some numbers for the Big 12 schools (including Texas and Oklahoma for reference), the AAC schools, and some Mountain West schools and Independents that have been mentioned over the years as expansion candidates. Specifically, I compared average football attendance from 2015-2019, US News and World Report university rankings, and rankings of the TV markets where the universities are located.
Average Attendance (2015-2019)
Texas 94,943 (8)
Oklahoma 85,745 (13)
BYU 57,078 (28)
Iowa State 56,562 (30)
West Virginia 56,484 (31)
Texas Tech 55,821 (33)
Oklahoma State 55,326 (36)
Kansas State 50,975 (38)
Baylor 44,536 (48)
TCU 44,353 (49)
East Carolina 38,031 (58)
Memphis 37,229 (59)
UCF 36,010 (61)
San Diego State 33,407 (65)
USF 33,172 (66)
Cincinnati 33,124 (67)
Boise State 32,830 (68)
Navy 32,459 (69)
Houston 32,174 (70)
Army 31,450 (71)
Temple 31,326 (72)
Fresno State 29,643 (74)
Air Force 27,910 (76)
Colorado State 27,484 (77)
Kansas 26,610 (80)
UConn 22,899 (85)
SMU 21,543 (89)
Tulane 20,174 (94)
Tulsa 18,631 (104)
The remaining Big 12 schools other than Kansas are remarkably similar in attendance and superior to every Group of 5 school other than BYU if you consider them G5. UCF’s numbers are getting into Big 12 range, as they averaged 44k fans in 2018 and 2019, which was in the range of TCU and Baylor.
University Rankings
Navy #6, Liberal Arts Colleges
Army #15, Liberal Arts Colleges
Air Force #28, Liberal Arts Colleges
Tulane #41
Texas #42
UConn #63
SMU #66
Baylor #76
TCU #80
BYU #80
USF #103
Temple #103
Iowa State #118
Kansas #124
Oklahoma #133
Cincinnati #143
San Diego State #143
Tulsa #143
Colorado State #153
UCF #160
Kansas State #170
Houston #176
Oklahoma State #187
Fresno State #196
Texas Tech #217
East Carolina #217
West Virginia #241
Memphis #258
Boise State #298-389 range
The rankings have a lot of ties. I didn’t realize just how awful the Big 12 is academically. Half of the remaining schools are ranked #170 or below. The AAC is actually a superior league academically, which is pretty sad. Looking at these numbers you can see why Boise State can’t get into the Pac-12 and West Virginia will never be offered by the Big Ten.
TV Markets
Army (1)
Temple (4)
SMU (5)
TCU (5)
Houston (8)
USF (13)
Colorado State (16)
UCF (17)
West Virginia (26)
San Diego State (27)
Navy (28)
BYU (30)
UConn (32)
Kansas (34)
Cincinnati (36)
Texas (38)
Oklahoma (44)
Oklahoma State (44)
Tulane (50)
Memphis (51)
Fresno State (55)
Tulsa (61)
Iowa State (68)
Air Force (82)
Baylor (83)
Boise State (101)
East Carolina (102)
Kansas State (142)
Texas Tech (145)
These numbers have to be taken with a giant grain of salt for a variety of reasons, but they do give a little bit of insight. First, it’s easy to see that the Big 12 is a small market league. The AAC actually has larger markets overall, albeit fewer fans within their markets for the most part, as the attendance numbers reveal. Second, while schools like East Carolina and Boise State may have nice attendance numbers for G5 schools, the size of their markets makes it difficult to believe they would be realistic candidates for Big 12 expansion.
Conclusion
BYU is clearly the best candidate for Big 12 expansion and it isn’t really close. Arguably, they have a bigger following than any of the remaining Big 12 schools. They have to be a part of any potential Big 12 expansion.
After that it’s a bit tricky. Any team that averages under 30,000 fans is a tough sell, so that leaves East Carolina, Memphis, UCF, San Diego State, USF, Cincinnati, Boise State, Navy, Houston, Army, and Temple.
Army declined an invite from the AAC, so they aren’t joining the Big 12. Boise State and East Carolina have to be eliminated due to market size. I think San Diego State is a tough sell geographically with the other schools. Temple doesn’t have a great football program. I have a hard time seeing Navy being a choice because I think we’ll be looking for full members. That leaves five schools:
Memphis
UCF
USF
Cincinnati
Houston
The best of those is UCF, who has had Big 12 caliber attendance as of late and is a gigantic school in a large TV market that also happens to be a football recruiting hotbed. If we brought in USF along side them, we’d be bringing in another giant university in a even bigger market and firmly establish the Big 12 in the state of Florida.
I don’t like the idea of adding Houston because I don’t really think we get a lot from it, but I could see the Big 12 wanting to stay Texas-centric. Maybe the league feels that with the loss of Texas we would benefit by having another school in the state?
Cincinnati has had a lot of ten win seasons in the last 10+ years. Ohio is a recruiting hotbed and they would provide West Virginia a nearby conference school.
Memphis would be a good basketball addition and they have decent attendance in football. Their market is just ok though.
If we were taking four teams, I would take BYU and UCF for sure. Then I would probably take USF and Cincinnati, but I wouldn’t argue too much against Houston or Memphis instead.
I decided to compare some numbers for the Big 12 schools (including Texas and Oklahoma for reference), the AAC schools, and some Mountain West schools and Independents that have been mentioned over the years as expansion candidates. Specifically, I compared average football attendance from 2015-2019, US News and World Report university rankings, and rankings of the TV markets where the universities are located.
Average Attendance (2015-2019)
Texas 94,943 (8)
Oklahoma 85,745 (13)
BYU 57,078 (28)
Iowa State 56,562 (30)
West Virginia 56,484 (31)
Texas Tech 55,821 (33)
Oklahoma State 55,326 (36)
Kansas State 50,975 (38)
Baylor 44,536 (48)
TCU 44,353 (49)
East Carolina 38,031 (58)
Memphis 37,229 (59)
UCF 36,010 (61)
San Diego State 33,407 (65)
USF 33,172 (66)
Cincinnati 33,124 (67)
Boise State 32,830 (68)
Navy 32,459 (69)
Houston 32,174 (70)
Army 31,450 (71)
Temple 31,326 (72)
Fresno State 29,643 (74)
Air Force 27,910 (76)
Colorado State 27,484 (77)
Kansas 26,610 (80)
UConn 22,899 (85)
SMU 21,543 (89)
Tulane 20,174 (94)
Tulsa 18,631 (104)
The remaining Big 12 schools other than Kansas are remarkably similar in attendance and superior to every Group of 5 school other than BYU if you consider them G5. UCF’s numbers are getting into Big 12 range, as they averaged 44k fans in 2018 and 2019, which was in the range of TCU and Baylor.
University Rankings
Navy #6, Liberal Arts Colleges
Army #15, Liberal Arts Colleges
Air Force #28, Liberal Arts Colleges
Tulane #41
Texas #42
UConn #63
SMU #66
Baylor #76
TCU #80
BYU #80
USF #103
Temple #103
Iowa State #118
Kansas #124
Oklahoma #133
Cincinnati #143
San Diego State #143
Tulsa #143
Colorado State #153
UCF #160
Kansas State #170
Houston #176
Oklahoma State #187
Fresno State #196
Texas Tech #217
East Carolina #217
West Virginia #241
Memphis #258
Boise State #298-389 range
The rankings have a lot of ties. I didn’t realize just how awful the Big 12 is academically. Half of the remaining schools are ranked #170 or below. The AAC is actually a superior league academically, which is pretty sad. Looking at these numbers you can see why Boise State can’t get into the Pac-12 and West Virginia will never be offered by the Big Ten.
TV Markets
Army (1)
Temple (4)
SMU (5)
TCU (5)
Houston (8)
USF (13)
Colorado State (16)
UCF (17)
West Virginia (26)
San Diego State (27)
Navy (28)
BYU (30)
UConn (32)
Kansas (34)
Cincinnati (36)
Texas (38)
Oklahoma (44)
Oklahoma State (44)
Tulane (50)
Memphis (51)
Fresno State (55)
Tulsa (61)
Iowa State (68)
Air Force (82)
Baylor (83)
Boise State (101)
East Carolina (102)
Kansas State (142)
Texas Tech (145)
These numbers have to be taken with a giant grain of salt for a variety of reasons, but they do give a little bit of insight. First, it’s easy to see that the Big 12 is a small market league. The AAC actually has larger markets overall, albeit fewer fans within their markets for the most part, as the attendance numbers reveal. Second, while schools like East Carolina and Boise State may have nice attendance numbers for G5 schools, the size of their markets makes it difficult to believe they would be realistic candidates for Big 12 expansion.
Conclusion
BYU is clearly the best candidate for Big 12 expansion and it isn’t really close. Arguably, they have a bigger following than any of the remaining Big 12 schools. They have to be a part of any potential Big 12 expansion.
After that it’s a bit tricky. Any team that averages under 30,000 fans is a tough sell, so that leaves East Carolina, Memphis, UCF, San Diego State, USF, Cincinnati, Boise State, Navy, Houston, Army, and Temple.
Army declined an invite from the AAC, so they aren’t joining the Big 12. Boise State and East Carolina have to be eliminated due to market size. I think San Diego State is a tough sell geographically with the other schools. Temple doesn’t have a great football program. I have a hard time seeing Navy being a choice because I think we’ll be looking for full members. That leaves five schools:
Memphis
UCF
USF
Cincinnati
Houston
The best of those is UCF, who has had Big 12 caliber attendance as of late and is a gigantic school in a large TV market that also happens to be a football recruiting hotbed. If we brought in USF along side them, we’d be bringing in another giant university in a even bigger market and firmly establish the Big 12 in the state of Florida.
I don’t like the idea of adding Houston because I don’t really think we get a lot from it, but I could see the Big 12 wanting to stay Texas-centric. Maybe the league feels that with the loss of Texas we would benefit by having another school in the state?
Cincinnati has had a lot of ten win seasons in the last 10+ years. Ohio is a recruiting hotbed and they would provide West Virginia a nearby conference school.
Memphis would be a good basketball addition and they have decent attendance in football. Their market is just ok though.
If we were taking four teams, I would take BYU and UCF for sure. Then I would probably take USF and Cincinnati, but I wouldn’t argue too much against Houston or Memphis instead.
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