Oregon State lost that Tinkle kid and still made the elite 8, so I'm not sleeping on the Beavers.
2021-2022 Nonconference Schedule
- Thread starter CyPunch
- Start date
Bart Torvik (and the model, not the person behind it) kind of hates the following guys...
Conditt = outside of a brief stretch of his sophomore year, he's been unplayable
Enaruna = he was not very good in Lawrence, no reason to think that's going to change
Foster = sucked last year (no adjustment made for injuries) and likely to suck again
Hinson = didn't play last year, wasn't very good as a sophomore (no adjustment for illness/injury)
Hunter = highly-recruited, but not that highly-recruited, and way too small
...or at least that is what the model sees if I had to put the numbers into qualitative descriptions.
I think it generally rates the other guys fairly, though. It has respect for the high-floor, low-ceiling starters we brought in and thinks some of the other guys could at least be bench pieces.
If some subset of those five greatly improve, then our rating shoots up really fast.
Creighton is super young but has a ton of talent -- more than us. I think they win in Omaha.
JoBo is still an annoying twat but he's going to make a lot of shots. The two McCaffery brothers are not bad players, and Keegan Murray had an excellent freshman year, though we will see if he is kind of like Percy Gibson where he looked great with Royce White/Luka Garza setting him up and being the focus of the defense, leaving the secondary big man/wing to operate more freely with less attention.
I would pick us to win if only because it is in Hilton, though. It is going to be a madhouse. Neither Kalscheur nor Brockington were very good against Iowa last year, but I doubt that is going to matter.
Disagree on Hunter. Not really sure what happened there tbh. Highly recruited and very highly ranked prospect.
Creighton definitely has a talented class incoming. A wild factoid about Creighton is they have like 3 players on the roster who have ever played a minute of Division 1 basketball (5 true freshmen, 2 redshirt freshmen, a D2 transfer).
I think 9-4 in the non-con.
They will beat the 7 scrubs in Hilton.
Plus 2 of Iowa, Oregon St, Mizzou - note those are all at Hilton.
Plus 6 or 7 wins in conference, right on the edge of .500 overall.
Yes I am modestly bullish; but I think even minimal competence will get them 7 or 8 wins. I am not going to flip out unless they look completely without a plan (like the last few years).
Agree with those who have said cupcakes are the way to start the season with essentially an entirely new team.
They will beat the 7 scrubs in Hilton.
Plus 2 of Iowa, Oregon St, Mizzou - note those are all at Hilton.
Plus 6 or 7 wins in conference, right on the edge of .500 overall.
Yes I am modestly bullish; but I think even minimal competence will get them 7 or 8 wins. I am not going to flip out unless they look completely without a plan (like the last few years).
Agree with those who have said cupcakes are the way to start the season with essentially an entirely new team.
This. 9-4 in non con would be fantastic and create good momentum for big 12 play. I think 6 wins in big 12 play would be a reasonable expectation. So somewhere around .500 in March. Get on the right side of it and maybe get a few more games in one of those screwy pay to play postseason tournaments.
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
Bart Torvik projects the following stat line for Hunter...
Tyrese Hunter (BT projected freshman)
6.4 minutes per game
99 ORTG
2.2 points per game
0.3 rebounds per game
0;8 rebounds per game
That would imply he was either hurt or simply a colossal bust. Assuming he is healthy, then the above stat line would imply probably the biggest recruiting miss in the history of the program.
I don't know how that could happen save for injury.
Compare to two of our other freshman PGs...
Monté Morris (freshman)
27.6 minutes per game
125.1 ORTG
6.8 points per game
2.6 rebounds per game
3.7 assists per game
Tyrese Haliburton (freshman)
33.2 minutes per game
136.8 ORTG
6.8 points per game
3.4 rebounds per game
3.6 assists per game
Those two might be a lot to live up to, but there's a pretty yawning difference between playing six minutes per night as a near-5* recruit and the freshman years of future NBA PGs.
I don't know how else to explain it other than the Bart Torvik algorithm puts pretty strong weight on player height in making these projections, and Hunter is just short. That is all.
I think it is a ridiculous projection, but I think that is where it is coming from.
Scheduling the entirety of the SWAC tells me that we're not planning on going to the NCAA tournament this year. That's ok, we probably weren't going anyways. Gotta build some confidence early and then maybe we sneak out an NIT bid
I guess if Torvik thinks Hunter is a non-factor, whatever -- but which players is he projecting to get the other 33.6 minutes at PG?
“Thinks” is a strong word implying some careful reasoning instead of making a massive set of projections for thousands of players. There is no room for nuanced analysis like that. That being said, BT has Brockington and GK playing 30+ per night and Grill and Jackson playing 20+ per night. BT does not project a formal PG, but there is your guard rotation implied by the playing time numbers.
Your post got me curious.
Beyond “The Fiasco” in 2019, ISU has done well on Dec. 31. Granted, lotta cupcakes. Notable: Scoring 67 seems to be popular for ISU on New Year’s Eve.
Results this century:
2019: L FAMU, 70-68
2014: W Mississippi Valley State, 88-83
2013: W Northern Illinois, 99-63
2011: W MVSU, 67-65*
2008: W Mercer, 67-49
2006: W North Dakota State, 67-54
2004: W Tennessee State, 67-61
2003: L at Virginia, 85-74
2002: W Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 90-46
2001: W Morris Brown (!), 69-45
* I think this was the legendary “Hoiberg slams table during postgame press conference.”
7-6 would be horrible. That means we couldn't even beat 1 of Iowa, Oregon St or Missouri in Hilton. If this team goes 7-6 in the non-conf that's a major red flag for where this thing is going with TJ.
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
Nah. It's year one after back-to-back 20 loss seasons.
It is what it is, but not a red flag.
I think you are underestimating the talent on this team and the culture change TJ will bring. Hilton will be rocking again also as people are ready to get out after Covid.
Not at all a flag.
Do you know what kind of absolute hole you have to be in to lose 20 games in back to back years at a P6?
Seriously, if he can win 8 out of the non-con and get 5 or 6 in the league, he'll have had a helluva year. A team this young, with a new staff, that's never played together is going to be CRAZY inconsistent and unfortunately you can lose to bad teams when that happens. The plus side is that there will be some games where it all comes together and you're more competitive than you should be on some nights.
The future is bright but expectations have to be realistic for the first couple of years here.
Do you know what kind of absolute hole you have to be in to lose 20 games in back to back years at a P6?
Seriously, if he can win 8 out of the non-con and get 5 or 6 in the league, he'll have had a helluva year. A team this young, with a new staff, that's never played together is going to be CRAZY inconsistent and unfortunately you can lose to bad teams when that happens. The plus side is that there will be some games where it all comes together and you're more competitive than you should be on some nights.
The future is bright but expectations have to be realistic for the first couple of years here.
There's no reason whatsoever this team can't win at least 1 of Oregon St, Iowa, Creighton, or Missouri in the non-conf. I dont expect them to win a game in New York and the Oregon St game is really early but no reason they can't beat Iowa or Missouir in Hilton. If we only beat the 7 scrub teams and lose the rest that will be a horrible start.
9-4 would be an excellent start for this team, 7-6 would be bad.
If Steve Prohm can beat a Top 15 Seton Hall team no reason TJ can't get a win over teams ranked in the 60s-90s.
