2020 Oregon is kind of a mystery even to die hard Duck fans. With only having players on campus a little over a month before the first game and with a new offensive coordinator and system, as well as a first time starter at QB things have been rough. The pre-season opt outs hit us hard, taking Outland winner and projected top-3 pick left tackle Penei Sewell, projected first round pick at safety Jevon Holland, starter at CB for the last three years Thomas Graham, and safety/Rose Bowl MVP Brady Breeze. That’s a generational left tackle, the teams three leading returning tacklers, and 20 career interceptions off a team that led the P-5 in interceptions last year.
My factors on why Oregon is a disappointing 4-2, and could just as easily be 2-4 or 6-0 if one play or whistle swings the other way: Lack of prep after no spring ball and a truncated camp, laziness and arrogance from some players on defense, a QB who instead of ice has warm, fresh milk in his veins, over reliance on young guys as roster imbalance has left only ~20-24ish scholarship upperclassmen.
Key Stats:
* Oregon offense gets 6.6 Yards per play, 6th among P-5 teams. Iowa State is just slightly behind at 6.4, so these will be the two most explosive or consistent offenses both have faced. Oregon is explosive, but not consistent.
* 110th in turnover margin, after Oregon was top-5 last year. Lots of fumbles, poor fumble recovery rate. Don’t want to get those pretty uniforms wet. Have forced 7 turnovers but those all came in two games, after leading P-5 in interceptions in 2019. Oregon is at -.80 per game while ISU is at a more respectable -.10 per game.
* Time of possession: Iowa State is 23rd and Oregon is 108th. TOP has never been an Oregon thing, and this year teams are purposefully running the play clock down to keep the inconsistent but dangerous Oregon offense off the field.
* Yards per rush allowed: Iowa State is 11th and Oregon is 58th. Welp. Oregon relies on the run threat to keep the defense honest on RPOs, but since Shough can’t read the defense it doesn’t matter much anyway. Cyclone offense and Hall should be able to grind out a few yards more than they expect on a regular basis.
* Opponent passer rating. A rare defensive category that favors Oregon. On the offensive side, as hard as it is to believe, Tyler Shough is 6th in the country among P-5 QBs, just behind Justin Fields and ahead of Spencer Rattler. When he’s on and the offense is rolling he is dangerous, his 9.4 yards per attempt stack up with the elites like Trevor Lawrence or Fields.
Offense: pistol or shotgun, single back or empty, 1 or 2 TE sets. Lots of RPO, RB swing passes, delayed flats by TE.
Key players:
Tyler Shough: pronounced Shuck. Easy to remember because he has Shoughed lately. Not the fastest guy, but he’s fast enough to keep you honest. Arm strength varies from good when set to how is he our QB? Bad at throwing over the middle, but can kill you on the sidelines.
Travis Dye: the number 2 back, but with injuries and consistency he’s been the main one lately. Very slippery and quick. Averaging 7.0 YPC on 59 carries. Receiving threat with 8 catches for 27 yards per catch and 4 TDs. The lead back CJ Verdell has been injured, he had 260, 210, 170 yard games last year with double digit YPC but has only shown up twice this year.
Devon Williams: one of the four main WRs, a 6’5” gazelle who is either incredible, not playing, or trying to punch people. Others 5’8” speedster Jaylon Redd, and two reliable possession receivers in Johnny Johnson III and Mycah Pittman.
TEs Kampmoyer and DJ Johnson: two former DEs, both willing and physical blockers who are used often in the passing game combining for 6 TDs, 4 games played for one, 3 for the other.
OL: nothing special, but not bad for 5 new starters. Average in pass pro and run, have struggled in the interior. #71 with a long Polynesian name is fun to watch, can maul guys.
Defense: base 3-3-5. NT, DT/Big DE, Edge DE on the line. The 5 DBs use the nickel as kind of a rover.
Kayvon Thibodeaux: He’s getting no shortage of ink or attention. Don’t let this years lackluster sack number fool you. Teams, and I’m sure ISU will do the same, have to plan around him and the havoc he causes. There’s a reason he was rated so highly and has a chance to be the number one pick in 2022. An absolute freak of nature, watch his first step and violent hands. He is key to Oregon’s success.
Noah Sewell: ILB, true freshman brother of the aforementioned Outland winner. Another athletic 5-star freak, size of a DE with speed and power. Makes mistakes every now and then. Dangerous on blitzes as he’s a truck, hits like one as well.
CBs Deommodore Lenoir and Mykael Wright: Lenoir is a senior who opted back in, great in coverage, physical and a good tackler. Wright is a sophomore that leads the conference in passes defended. Last year he had ten kick returns, took two of them back 100 yards this year only one good return so far.
My apologies, brevity is not my strong suit. I’ve been watching Iowa State games to get a preview. I might have more questions, but what happened against Louisiana Lafayette? The punt and kick returns I understand, those happen - but what was Purdy doing? Because a completion rate that low does not bode well.
