There are a lot of possibilities. Not as simple as Cotton or Alamo. Actually, since the Sugar is a semifinal, the Big12 Champ (assuming no playoff) will be placed based on "best matchup and location". That's why most have the Cotton slotted, but could be any of Peach, Fiesta, or Cotton. This year the Orange is ACC vs best of non playoff SEC/Big10/ND. The Big 12 Bowl tie-ins and NY6 priority are garbage, but that's a story for another thread. For example, a Pac12 champ not in the playoff (USC or Oregon) might face a Big 12 Champ in the Fiesta based on Match up and Geography.
Here are a few good reads:
NY6 for dummies
BYU write up
Where things really get interesting are if we manage to climb the rankings over the next 3 weeks. With a win over WVU and inevitable losses of teams ahead of us we could get into that 6-8 range. If we lose a close one to a #5-8 OU, the ranking might drop to 10 or 11, depending on other circumstances. That would create a good chance of picking up a NY6 at-large spot. If Cincy doesn't make the playoff, BYU is screwed.
I'm rooting against basically anyone ahead of us, but particularly A&M, Indiana vs Wiscy/Purdue, Cincy in AAC CG, & Miami vs. UNC. Those are the teams that would box us out of an at-large bid with a loss to OU. This week, with a Top 20 win on the road, we very well may pass Indiana, OU, and possibly Georgia. Get to #11 this week, get the job done against WVU, and hope for chaos.
Given the strange year and the Ohio State situation, and matchups yet to be played, it's not inconceivable that OU could get a playoff spot with 2 losses. Then we would automatically backdoor into the NY6. Need an ND loss before ACC CG or another Clemson loss to ND in ACC CG. If they split, I think they get 2 bids and box out a 1 loss A&M, Miami, AA Champ Cincy.
A lot still to unfold, but I can't believe ISU will be in the mix of NY6 discussion win or lose the Big12 CG.