I would not be surprise at all if there's well over 2 million that have it or have had it over the last month.
Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)
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I would not be surprise at all if there's well over 2 million that have it or have had it over the last month.
in the same boat here. with my disability, it would be big trouble for me. It freaks me out. I have not been out much, drives with a parent where no one gets out of the car or going along for walks with family members (in my scooter) but, we stay well away from others
I will pray for safety for your family and your daughter @SEIOWA CLONE
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This sort of goes hand in hand, but a treatment will also help hospitals keep up.
Right now, if patients are admitted they could be in the hospital for up to 2 weeks. That's far too long and causes hospitals to get backed up.
If a treatment can be developed that lowers that to say 5 days, then you can get more people in, treated, and out.
In a way wouldn't that actually be a good thing? The nature of peoples' symptoms are what they are whether they get confirmed or not. I guess I'd be a lot more alarmed if we had this many hospitalizations and fatalities and we didn't have a bunch of unconfirmed cases and exposures out there. Considering the ease of transmission for this virus it seems likely that a high percentage of the population is going to be exposed. I'd feel a lot better knowing there are millions of people that contracted the virus but had mild/no symptoms.
Broader testing plus antibody testing would be huge in getting a better idea of where we are at and where we need to potentially shift resources, need to take more stringent measures in terms of lockdown and travel.
So I can see why that thought is pretty frightening to people, but I've always had in my mind that this will play out by a vast majority of people getting exposed, and hopefully it is drawn out enough to stay within hospital capacity.
What I am watching for Iowa specifically is the number of "currently hospitalized." To me that is the key metric. Realistically that number is going to grow for a while, and that will tell us what the most important peak really is. It is growing slowly, meaning new hospitalizations are currently outpacing discharges/recoveries. However, it is growing by single digits per day, and we've got a fair amount of capacity to utilize yet. Considering the length of symptoms and when it really started to hit Iowa, I think we'll see the discharges ramping up. However, if we aren't smart about it that could ramp up quickly. The scary part to me in Iowa is some of the rural areas. If people aren't careful you could have large groups of elderly get sick with limited resources at hospitals nearby.
I really think we'll see this initial peak (based on currently hospitalized), then a few weeks a secondary peak after we open things back up, and probably a third peak in the fall again. With the nature of this virus I really think mass exposure is all but inevitable. As every place has shown us, the key is keeping that spread slow enough to stay within medical capacity, with the ultimate goal slowing it enough to get herd immunity, effective treatment of symptoms to minimize its effect, and a vaccine.
I think that is what will need to happen in order for us to actually get back to our "old" normal, otherwise this virus will always be around until a vaccination is approved.
I'm wondering--are the 2nd and 3rd flare ups/peaks going to have the same kinds of numbers and/or rapid increases?
If you are assuming that many more have had it with little to no symptoms then you have to assume that much more immunity in the population which would help lessen the severity of future peaks.
I think they could if they were treated the same as this current cycle. But, they wont be treated the same. Even if we are back to fairly normal life, people will still be way more cautious with keeping their distance from one another and wearing masks etc. That alone will help tremendously. I also think there wont be any large events (sports, concerts) for a while which were major breeding grounds for places like northern Italy, NYC and New Orleans.
A place like Italy might very well have 20-30% of their population infected by the time this first wave is over. That alone would limit the severity of the 2nd ad 3rd waves in their country.
I think a big concern is that if the numbers come in lower than thought for round 1, that people will take round 2 less seriously.
The Spanish Flu had 3 rounds and the 2nd was the most deadly by far.
If something like 50k die in the US in round 1, my guess is you’ll see certain people dismissing the need to lock down in the fall or winter for round 2. That could make for far worse initial spread and lead to a much bigger issue.
And that doesn’t consider localized pockets this summer that may spread if people start relaxing and having big gatherings. Or travel picking back up - even limited to business types - around the world.
The Spanish Flu had 3 rounds and the 2nd was the most deadly by far.
If something like 50k die in the US in round 1, my guess is you’ll see certain people dismissing the need to lock down in the fall or winter for round 2. That could make for far worse initial spread and lead to a much bigger issue.
And that doesn’t consider localized pockets this summer that may spread if people start relaxing and having big gatherings. Or travel picking back up - even limited to business types - around the world.
We should also be better prepared at that point also though. Should have more ventilators, more PPEs and such on hand, or at least ordered and being shipped, to take some of the anxiety out that is currently there.
I think we'll see most Americans will have been exposed to it by then and developed an immunity to it making the next waves a bit easier to handle.
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Saying "this is going to be the worst week" is light years more honest than a lot of what we've been told by our leaders.
If you live in a world where every leader has been that outstanding without seeing anything worse than that (because there has been gigantic boatloads of it) we need to train every American to only see the outstanding leadership you have seen and somehow ignore all the lies and misdirection.
I'm done being vocal about wanting her to clamp down more, or turn the dial up, but I do think it's at least a little bit interesting she's doing her press conference today at 11 am instead her usual 2:30. 11 am would most likely be too early to give an update on the numbers from today.
That's not me saying she's going to do anything else today.. I'm just wondering if there is any reason to her speaking 3.5 hours earlier the day after we had the worst day.
Honestly though, won't it always be around in some version? Similar to flu - yes we have a "new" vaccine each year, but that's because the organism causing the flu has not disappeared. It just adapts.
On a slightly different note, I've read several places (from true legitimate sources although I can't remember even one right now) that another ongoing question in the whole statistics approach is whether deaths are "from" COVID-19 or something else and the person also had COVID-19. I imagine we'll never know the answer for many deaths because the post-mortem testing is not a high priority or even possible due to insufficient supply of the tests, at least for a while.
I want to see the social experiment of who feels the same and who changes their mind if Reynolds issues SIP.
They both are poor ways to communicate, and obviously Trump's message is a whole different level of bad, agreed. This is also not something that can be communicated on a national level, the virus is spreading at different rates around the country, this is not going to be the worst week in many places. You simply can't have one timeline for the entire country which seems like the message they are relaying. People will start to tune it out as it quickly turns into an office space like every week is the worst week of your life type of message.
Wouldn't be shocked if majority of Americans have been exposed and or infected for months. I know everybody in my family has been pretty sick at some point since early Feb. Fever, fatigue, coughs, throat infections, etc etc. We all tested negative for flu and strep. Not saying for sure we had it, but I wouldn't be surprised if we did.
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