Prohm is 9-16 at ISU
- Thread starter Jkclone15
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over the five year periods quoted that equates to approximately five more total wins for hoiberg that project (or one more 3 pt or less loss per year for prohm than hoiberg).... when playing around 30 games a year, is one more 3 pt or less loss per year really that big of a gap?
Floyd had this trick, that was really bizarre. You wouldn't think it would work, but I saw it work in person. If an opposing player was getting hot, he would take an ISU deep bench player and have him very lightly foul twice in a row. Like, a light tap on the shoulder. It would take that opposing player completely out of his game. It was amazing.
I’m pretty sure you’re wrong. Not fouling works something like 93% and fouling works 90%.
Thanks for not crucifying me with your reply.
Anybody have the Larry numbers? We always wore out the opposition being in better shape than most teams we played. Went to one practice they ran for a hour straight puking in garbage can every now and then. "I didn't come here on a track scholarship" It got ugly from there.
I'm pretty sure the analytics show that it's pretty much even fouling vs not fouling with a 3 point lead. Here is a good article by Ken Pomeroy that suggests it might by slightly better to NOT foul.
https://kenpom.com/blog/yet-another-study-about-fouling-when-up-3/
With our rebounding troubles that last couple years, I don't know why anyone wants us to foul in the situation. We forced TCU into a very bad, low percentage shot that happened to bank in.
Also, Prohm wanted them to foul (which I still don't agree is necessarily the right move) after TCU crossed half court, but TCU set a screen at just the right time. Conditt was a little late coming to help and commit the foul so by the time he got there, Nembhard was already pulling up for the shot from way beyond the 3pt line and Conditt obviously didn't want to foul him on the shot.
Basically, fouling the other team, without it being a shooting foul while also trying to let some clock run is a lot harder than simply saying "just foul them so they can't shoot a 3". Fouling with 8-9 seconds left on the clock is too risky in my opinion. It extends the game by adding extra possession, which is exactly what the trailing team wants. It forces you to inbound the ball successfully one more time, make free throws one more time, then defend again. I'd rather take my chances on the other team taking an extremely low percentage 3.
While a running 30 footer is never an ideal shot, it was as clean of a look as you could hope for given the situation. We didn't even put a hand up.
3:56 mark
I did a similar analysis last year if a game was 5 points or less at the 4 minute mark. His win percentage was less than 40%.
Bill Self is damn lucky then because he is between 41-11 Over the last 4.5 years in games decided by 6 points or less (including all OT games). Some is luck and some is coaching.
Other Big 12 coaches in last 4.5 years
Scott Drew 27-22
Bob Huggins 23-16
Chris Beard 19-16 (3.5 seasons)
Lon Krueger 28-24
Bruce Webber 25-23
Jamie Dixon 22-20 (3.5 seasons)
Mike Boynton 13-13 (2.5 seasons)
Steve Prohm 22-31
Shaka Smart 29-34
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Sorry if already posted but I thought someone did an analysis of recent games that were within 3 points at the 4 minute mark. To me that was more interesting since (to me) it gave a better idea of coaching down the line in a close game without excluding games where one team pulled away.
Edit: This has already been brought up! I should read the thread first.
Edit: This has already been brought up! I should read the thread first.
So they bank in a running 30 fitter and we miss an open 35 footer, does Prohm get credit for getting the look? I don’t recall the set very well.
It appeared we attempted to, but Dixon did an excellent job of screening the designated fouler out of the play and we didn't have a backup plan for that.
In fairness, Self is the clearly the outlier. I also find it interesting that Huggins has the fewest number of those games (excluding Beard).
For Orr, any loss by less than 20 on the road should be a win.
It's at the end of the video. IMO, he had a decent look. The defender at least got a hand up.
I'm not sure if you were trying to compare the situations, but TCU clearly wouldn't foul in that scenario and give Haliburton 2 free throws with the chance to tie it. Their only sensible option was to defend.
I don't think anyone will argue that he is a pretty poor in-game coach that lacks making solid adjustments. Which explains the poor close W-L record.
