Ohio State and Louisville - 13th data point
- Thread starter scottwv
- Start date
I thought nut cups were an ISU only concept? But I do agree they will never let that happen.
I don't see there being a scenario where the Big 12 gets a team into the playoff unless the majority of teams rated in the top 4 have two losses.
- If either Louisville or Clemson finish with one loss, they will get a bid ahead of Ohio State.
- Ohio State, Michigan, PSU or Wisky with 2 or fewer losses, would get in before OU or WVU.
- The SEC will have a representative before the Big 12. Bama with 0 or 1 losses is a no brainer. However, if Tennessee wins the SEC CCG with 3 losses, I could see SEC bias putting the Vols in before a Big 12 team.
- In the Pac 12 a one loss Washington would get in before OU.
After the Louisville loss last night, the Big XII does have a realistic shot at getting a team into the playoff. Basically, Michigan needs to win out and Washington needs to lose one of their remaining games, which is definitely a possibility after their showing against USC. IMO, if this happens and OU wins out they will be in (I think it has to be OU because of brand, I don’t think WVU or OSU would get in if they won out under the scenario above).
Fivethirtyeight has a nice tool to play around with the odds if you are interested. Not an exact science by any means, but still fun to look at: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Fivethirtyeight has a nice tool to play around with the odds if you are interested. Not an exact science by any means, but still fun to look at: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
I think West Virginia has to win out for the Big 12 to have a realistic shot (barring other big upsets, which is possible). That loss to Ohio State on their home field is really going to hurt OU. The problem for either Big 12 team is neither has or will have a signature win
Right now, Alabama would be a 24 point favorite over Western Michigan on a neutral field. Ohio State would be a 20 point favorite, Michigan 19, Clemson, Washington and Wisconsin about two touchdown favorites. They have one decent win, a one pointer over Northwestern where Northwestern fumbled at the goal line at the end of the game while setting up the game winning field goal. Even Northwestern is a bottom half of the Big 10 team. Western Michigan would be a middle of the road team in any of the P5 conferences.
By Michigan not falling at all after losing to an unranked team, I think we know who the committee wants in the playoff.
I still think a 2 loss undefeated-in-conference play OU team is more attractive than an Ohio State team with 2 losses in the Big Ten who would finish 3rd in their division, despite the head to head. With WVU even if they would finish with 1 loss and as conference champs I don't think they are a big enough brand for the committee to select them. If there's anything we've learned after two years of this, the committee wants the brand name teams in the playoff.
undefeated in conference play might mean something if the Big 12 wasn't the worst power 5 conference this year. Think Iowa's resume last year, accept if Iowa had lost to Stanford in the OOC rather than the bowl game
I'm sorry that you had to type out all of those words because I in no way think Western Michigan could beat any of those teams.
Sorry- really more of a response to the Toledo guy that said they should get in if they run the remainder of their MAC schedule.
The playoff committee established in 2014 that when teams are ranked close together, the head to head winner gets ranked higher (see Baylor over TCU in final 2014 ranking for 1 example). If OU could get a 13th data point or was a much bigger brand, then it could get interesting but neither of those situations applies. Best case for BigXII is for OU win out, OSU to win out, Michigan to lose out (more likely now that QB is hurt), Washington to lose to WSU, AND (this is the hardest one) have PedoState lose to Rutgers or MSU so that OSU can beat Wisc in Big10 champ game. Then I think OU can squeeze in as team #4.
This is true. I said in another thread that the OU/WV is basically the first intriguing match up for the Big 12 this season, and I don't think either of them are all that good.
ISU fans work really hard to put the Big 10 down but at least they've had multiple weekends of games where the results matter and two good teams are playing each other.
This may have been discussed--who goes to the Big Ten Title Game if Michigan didn't flop at Iowa, but still got beat by OSU, but beat PSU, who beat OSU?
PSU would have been out due to their loss to Pitt. Then it would be the winner of OSU v Michigan.
it's a tiebreaker (not one of the first one's, but they all would have identical conference records)
None of the three had victories over both of the other two but all three had victories over one of the other two.
They all would have had one conference loss
They all would have had one division loss
Right....that's interesting if they'd go with overall/out of conference losses.
I don't recall that happening before.
Here's an interesting and semi-related question: Is there a single national media personality with Big 12 ties who would be naturally inclined to promote our conference? I'm talking booth guys or halftime show guys that get lots of screen time. All the big ones I can think of off the top of my head are former Big 10, PAC-12 or SEC players and coaches. I guess Mack Brown gets on the ESPN2 Friday Night games. Joel Klatt played for Big 12 Colorado and gets a fair amount of screen time for FOX, but Colorado has been in the PAC-12 for quite a while now. Of course CBS is all SEC.
