Another Malaysia airlines crash?

ExCyment

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Jan 8, 2013
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Putin holding Ukraine responsible is like the “someone was on my front porch so I shot eight times through the door even though it turned out it was the neighbor girl selling cookies” defense. You never know, it could have been a burglar or, you know, the ever dangerous transport plane.

Putin's ramblings are for internal consumption, they don't have to make sense.
 

CloneIce

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Apr 11, 2006
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Occams razor for me - separatists with "found" Russian SAMs. They have already been shooting down transport planes. They see ML 777 and think it's Ukraine military transport and shoot it down. Oopsies!

Putin won't care, he won't reign those guys in. Just keep destabilizing Ukraine. The messier it gets, the more out of control, the easier to carve a chunk off and dominate the rest. And the longer it takes, the less the West will care.

Question is: what CAN the West do to show we care, and protect Poland and the Baltics (especially) from the same treatment? Will sanctions be enough? Until the Germans do something serious, Putin has a free hand and he knows it. And he is probably smart enough to not go too far to provoke them.

Too bad our leaders (in the US and the West in general) are politicians and not statesmen or strategists. Putin is playing chess and we are playing checkers. Worse, we have way more power (economic and military), yet Putin is running circles around us.

Agree that is almost surely what happens. Don't agree that Putin doesn't care... he is surely ****** as hell about this. But, this is what happens when you give weapons to poorly trained rebels. However, he won't change his policies over this, so in that sense yeah he doesn't care (just cares because this looks very bad for him and will cement opinion against him).

Also, disagree that he is running circles around the West. He is desperately clawing for one piece of the region that is representative of former Soviet dominance, and he is alienating the rest of the world in the process. He may have gotten Crimea and its ports, and is working hard to destabilize Ukraine so he can keep Russian control over them, but he is going to lose on this one in the long run.
 

Clonefan32

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Nov 19, 2008
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Agree that is almost surely what happens. Don't agree that Putin doesn't care... he is surely ****** as hell about this. But, this is what happens when you give weapons to poorly trained rebels. However, he won't change his policies over this, so in that sense yeah he doesn't care (just cares because this looks very bad for him and will cement opinion against him).

Also, disagree that he is running circles around the West. He is desperately clawing for one piece of the region that is representative of former Soviet dominance, and he is alienating the rest of the world in the process. He may have gotten Crimea and its ports, and is working hard to destabilize Ukraine so he can keep Russian control over them, but he is going to lose on this one in the long run.

Just curious, how do you define "lose", because World powers have seem to have given the situation in the Ukraine a resounding "meh" thus far.
 

HFCS

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Occams razor for me - separatists with "found" Russian SAMs. They have already been shooting down transport planes. They see ML 777 and think it's Ukraine military transport and shoot it down. Oopsies!

Putin won't care, he won't reign those guys in. Just keep destabilizing Ukraine. The messier it gets, the more out of control, the easier to carve a chunk off and dominate the rest. And the longer it takes, the less the West will care.

Question is: what CAN the West do to show we care, and protect Poland and the Baltics (especially) from the same treatment? Will sanctions be enough? Until the Germans do something serious, Putin has a free hand and he knows it. And he is probably smart enough to not go too far to provoke them.

Too bad our leaders (in the US and the West in general) are politicians and not statesmen or strategists. Putin is playing chess and we are playing checkers. Worse, we have way more power (economic and military), yet Putin is running circles around us.

Poland would never have the Russian separatist traction Ukraine has had, can't pretend to know enough about the former soviet republics though. I mean how many of us were knowledgable about the people of Crimea before this?
 

keepngoal

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Poland would never have the Russian separatist traction Ukraine has had, can't pretend to know enough about the former soviet republics though. I mean how many of us were knowledgable about the people of Crimea before this?

what Russia has done with the Crimea area and others that are deep / close to Russia areas is to breed them out. Russia has long infused Russians into an area to change the culture of that area. These loyalists to Russia in parts like Crimea are transplants from Russia, having little ties to the areas when looking over centuries.
 

MaccloNe

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Sep 21, 2011
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what Russia has done with the Crimea area and others that are deep / close to Russia areas is to breed them out. Russia has long infused Russians into an area to change the culture of that area. These loyalists to Russia in parts like Crimea are transplants from Russia, having little ties to the areas when looking over centuries.


So the soldier are there to breed the women and not fight?
 

CloneIce

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Just curious, how do you define "lose", because World powers have seem to have given the situation in the Ukraine a resounding "meh" thus far.

The big game, in the long run. Economic and strategic power in the world is much more than battling for pieces of the Ukraine.
 

Cyclonepride

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Related, and interesting.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-fg-satellites-ukraine-missile-20140717-story.html

"U.S. radar installations and other assets in the region would assist in tracking any surface-to-air missile, which Ukrainian officials have said probably came from a Russian-made Buk system. The information would be relayed to U.S. European Command, headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany."

""They would have known exactly where it was launched, where it was headed, and the rate at which it was traveling," Ellison said. "
 

Mr Janny

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Reductio ad Hitlerum?

nice. I wasn't familiar with that. I was more just pointing out Godwin's law as a joke, because it's such a similar situation that you almost have to make the comparison.
 

RubyClone

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Mar 21, 2014
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Reportedly the Ukrainians have photos of a BUK system being transported back to Russia with only 3 of the usual 4 rockets aboard.

When I went out to lunch, CNN was discussing with some "expert" who said that you could identify the particular unit by it's radar signature. They almost assuredly have the location (been reported that it was inside separatist regions of Ukraine). But they would need that actual unit to do a match.

So you can rest assured that thing has been melted down.

I'd like to take this opportunity to remark how much Wolf Blitzer sucks at his job. Why is he still employed? Does he have photos of someone? He was talking to an Israeli general about their fear of such a missile attack. The general mentioned a recent episode where they were preventing missiles from being transported from Syria to Hamas. Not 10 seconds later, standing face to face, Blitzer prods the general (paraphrase) "so you have proof that Iran is supplying missiles to Hamas?".

No Wolf - he just told you, not 10 seconds ago, Syria.

And I don't know why this irks me, but repeatedly last night they would comment how this was the same model as the plane that went down back in April. As if that in any way matters? Perhaps it does, I don't see it though. CNN just can't let that story go. To much invested I suppose.
 
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Cyclonepride

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Reportedly the Ukrainians have photos of a BUK system being transported back to Russia with only 3 of the usual 4 rockets aboard.

When I went out to lunch, CNN was discussing with some "expert" who said that you could identify the particular unit by it's radar signature. They almost assuredly have the location (been reported that it was inside separatist regions of Ukraine). But they would need that actual unit to do a match.

So you can rest assured that thing has been melted down.

I'd like to take this opportunity to remark how much Wolf Blitzer sucks at his job. Why is he still employed? Does he have photos of someone? He was talking to an Israeli general about their fear of such a missile attack. The general mentioned a recent episode where they were preventing missiles from being transported from Syria to Hamas. Not 10 seconds later, standing face to face, Blitzer prods the general (paraphrase) "so you have proof that Iran is supplying missiles to Hamas?".

No Wolf - he just told you, not 10 seconds ago, Syria.

And I don't know why this irks me, but repeatedly last night they would comment how this was the same model as the plane that went down back in April. As if that in any way matters? Perhaps it does, I don't see it though. CNN just can't let that story go. To much invested I suppose.

Per my recent article, US satellites almost certainly could pinpoint the launch location down to a very small area (my guess is within meters). Apparently this weapon system has a very strong radar signature that tracks the missile to the target, and then turns it over to the missile guidance system itself, which also has a distinct signature.

This is why, during recent conflicts with Russian supported regimes, part of our initial intent was to get the sites to turn on so that we could find and destroy them. Eventually, they just quit turning on.
 
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k123

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Sep 14, 2011
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So you can rest assured that thing has been melted down.

I'd like to take this opportunity to remark how much Wolf Blitzer sucks at his job. Why is he still employed? Does he have photos of someone? He was talking to an Israeli general about their fear of such a missile attack. The general mentioned a recent episode where they were preventing missiles from being transported from Syria to Hamas. Not 10 seconds later, standing face to face, Blitzer prods the general (paraphrase) "so you have proof that Iran is supplying missiles to Hamas?".

No Wolf - he just told you, not 10 seconds ago, Syria.

I agree Wolf Blitzer is a terrible robot reporter. However, he may have said that b/c Iran funnels weapons through Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon and also in Israel/Palestine.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah#Foreign_relations

But this has little to do with MH17....
 

RubyClone

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Mar 21, 2014
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I agree Wolf Blitzer is a terrible robot reporter. However, he may have said that b/c Iran funnels weapons through Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon and also in Israel/Palestine.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah#Foreign_relations

But this has little to do with MH17....

Yeah - I thought that to. But it just wasn't what the gen said, and he corrected him on it.

And even though it's obviously true - what kind of reporter makes that leap of what someone just said?

But that's another thing. I don't watch often - more listen on XM as they have the best "news" and not talk shows - and he's just on during the PM drive home. But Wolf reminds me on a near constant basis, of Jim Grey on his Pete Rose interview. He'll just pull something tangent out and beat an inteviewee over the head with it. He is truly one of those media types who tries to manufacture a headline.

For anyone still watching CNN today, is the Airline still "Breaking News"?
 

CloneIce

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Apr 11, 2006
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But truthful. The strategy is almost identical.

Lots of significant differences also. But honestly, Germany in the 30's has been so beaten into our brain that it is the first thing that comes to all of our minds when somebody starts pulling in territories around them.
 

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