Bracket Predictions 2025-26

[cycloneworld]

Playing poorly has consequences and every time ISU moved into the top 5 they lost, any time a cracked in the title race they lost, and losing a seed (or two) is the consequence. I hate it, but I have no faith in big expectations anymore. That’s just me and you may feel totally different and it’s fine, but they have been far from consistent at the time of year they WANT to be consistent.
I’ll be cheering, but I don’t expect anything.

It's the second year in a row we reached #2 in the nation and likely wont finish in the top 4 of the conference and have to play in Wednesday in KC. Last year, we had the injury excuse. This year seems to be "our schedule is hard at the end and we were never that good". Either way, we haven't played our best basketball going into March. Hopefully we get the payoff this March.

 

[alenz95]

Projecting forward, I think a 3 is looking like a very real possibility. It may or may not actually happen, but I hope people aren't outraged when/if it does.

Cannot underscore enough how problematic the loss on Saturday was. With the way the Big-12 tournament will get seeded, its looking like the remainder of the season will be: (1) Loss at Arizona: (2) win over ASU; (3) Win over bottom 2 big 12 team; (4) loss in Big 12 tournament. There are obviously chances to pick up massive wins, but that has to happen against Arizona on the road, or against Tech or Kansas in the Big 12 tournament with ether of those matchups presenting a variety of difficulty. There is also the added possibility of picking up a bad loss in the first round of the Big-12 tournament that would have been impossible with the double bye.

If we finish 2-2 our analytical rankings seem to be trending towards a 3 seed being appropriate. Our NET comparison also starts to get more problematic when compared to other candidates for the 2-3 seed. We would be the only team in that group with a losing record in Q-1 games. Everyone else in that group, except Illinois and Florida, are undefeated in Q2-Q4 games.

 

[MartyFine]

 

[ScottyP]

So we can move up even if we lose? That takes a lot of pressure off this game.

 

[Cyclonepride]

We only dropped to #6 in the AP. I wish some would realize that there are a LOT of really good teams this year, and dropping a couple especially this late in the season isn't going to hurt us.

NCAA College Basketball Rankings: AP Top 25 Basketball Poll

The official page for the AP Top 25 men's college basketball poll. Keep up to date and view the latest NCAA men's basketball ranking updates each week for the 2025-26 season.

apnews.com

People (including bracketologists) seem to get stuck in an early season mindset where one big game can (and should) cause a significant swing. The data set (resume) is much more complete by this time of the season, so big swings are pure silliness.

 

[CoachHines3]

So we can move up even if we lose? That takes a lot of pressure off this game.

when are we as a society going to stop taking Lunardi as a serious bracketologist?

being ranked 125th out of 186 isn't good.

The Bracket Project - Ranking the Bracketologists

(If you click on the blue link next to the bracketologists name it will take you to their bracket)

 

[CoachHines3]

I'd take this bracket from Bauertology though as a #3 seed.

Bauertology: 3/2/26

Could someone remind me what month it is? This is March, the single greatest month of the entire year, where the college basketball season reaches its climax. Conference tournaments, Bubble Watches…

bauertology.com

 

[Urbandale2013]

The bracketologists are absolute morons this year.

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[ClonesFTW]

It's the second year in a row we reached #2 in the nation and likely wont finish in the top 4 of the conference and have to play in Wednesday in KC. Last year, we had the injury excuse. This year seems to be "our schedule is hard at the end and we were never that good". Either way, we haven't played our best basketball going into March. Hopefully we get the payoff this March.

The national narrative remains that we can beat anyone in Hilton but that we are just good not great away from home. Our best win Purdue now has 7 losses and is 5th in the Big 10, unfortunately doesn't help.

 

[dahliaclone]

People (including bracketologists) seem to get stuck in an early season mindset where one big game can (and should) cause a significant swing. The data set (resume) is much more complete by this time of the season, so big swings are pure silliness.

I'm just focused on how we maintain a 2 seed. I'm done worrying about KC seeding and who are the one seeds. Duke/Michigan/Arizona are pretty locked into 1 seeds. UCONN and Florida, to me, are the only other teams vying for the last one seed. The one that doesn't get that last 1 gets a 2, so there are three 2 seeds on the table as I see things.

Iowa State
Houston
Michigan State
Illinois

Those are the teams with a case for a 2 seed. I just don't see how Gonzaga, Purdue, or Nebraska have a case for a 2 seed over any of those other teams. Texas Tech is playing really well so maybe they have a case for a 2 if they win two this week.

 

[mevans7797]

People (including bracketologists) seem to get stuck in an early season mindset where one big game can (and should) cause a significant swing. The data set (resume) is much more complete by this time of the season, so big swings are pure silliness.

It’s just like NFL mock draft season, it’s all about changing things up for the sake of change and for them clicks

 

[CPG4ISU]

Projecting forward, I think a 3 is looking like a very real possibility. It may or may not actually happen, but I hope people aren't outraged when/if it does.

Cannot underscore enough how problematic the loss on Saturday was. With the way the Big-12 tournament will get seeded, its looking like the remainder of the season will be: (1) Loss at Arizona: (2) win over ASU; (3) Win over bottom 2 big 12 team; (4) loss in Big 12 tournament. There are obviously chances to pick up massive wins, but that has to happen against Arizona on the road, or against Tech or Kansas in the Big 12 tournament with ether of those matchups presenting a variety of difficulty. There is also the added possibility of picking up a bad loss in the first round of the Big-12 tournament that would have been impossible with the double bye.

If we finish 2-2 our analytical rankings seem to be trending towards a 3 seed being appropriate. Our NET comparison also starts to get more problematic when compared to other candidates for the 2-3 seed. We would be the only team in that group with a losing record in Q-1 games. Everyone else in that group, except Illinois and Florida, are undefeated in Q2-Q4 games.

While I think a 3 seed if possible, as long as ISU goes 1-1 this week it's really not likely.

It's hard to overstate how unimportant conference tournaments are to the committee. Unless you are on the bubble, they pretty much disregard those games entirely. They need to have their bracket 90% before conference tournament weekend, so they just don't take those games into account.

 

[fsanford]

While I think a 3 seed if possible, as long as ISU goes 1-1 this week it's really not likely.

It's hard to overstate how unimportant conference tournaments are to the committee. Unless you are on the bubble, they pretty much disregard those games entirely. They need to have their bracket 90% before conference tournament weekend, so they just don't take those games into account.

The year ISU and Illinois won their tourney's they got put in with UConn who was by far the best team in all of college hoops.

So yes conference tournaments mean nothing.
Does not matter unless you are on the bubble

 

[CysEyesVet]

At least tonight's game takes pressure off of trying to get the one seed. They can just focus on securing the 2 seed! (And hey, I guess a high end 3 seed isn't the end of the world)

 

[alenz95]

The year ISU and Illinois won their tourney's they got put in with UConn who was by far the best team in all of college hoops.

So yes conference tournaments mean nothing.
Does not matter unless you are on the bubble

I'm not really weighing conference tournament performance as being a positive or negative. The issue is that our current body of work does not look like we are a lock for a 2 seed.

 

[fsanford]

I'm not really weighing conference tournament performance as being a positive or negative. The issue is that our current body of work does not look like we are a lock for a 2 seed.

But the teams vying for it all have warts. Except Florida and they may pass UConn.
ISU is not in a vacuum here

We all ( me included) look at this from an ISU angle only and ignore other teams.

 

[t.m.]

But the teams vying for it all have warts. Except Florida and they may pass UConn.
ISU is not in a vacuum here

We all ( me included) look at this from an ISU angle only and ignore other teams.

One of the people from the twitter bracketology universe (I'd have to go search who) posted a graphic today with 8 teams and a handful of their "metrics". Basically, you could put them in a blender and make a legitimate argument for any random order that came out for teams 6 thru 13.

 

[cycloneworld]

The national narrative remains that we can beat anyone in Hilton but that we are just good not great away from home. Our best win Purdue now has 7 losses and is 5th in the Big 10, unfortunately doesn't help.

And frankly, that is a very fair narrative. Until we can 1) win more consistently on the road and 2) having off nights and dropping games we should win, we won't take the next step from being really, really good to contending for stuff. Maybe we'll never be Houston, but if we want to be more like them, these are the 2 things we need to improve to get there.

 

[CPG4ISU]

One of the major things to look at is total losses. Basically all the 2 seeds have similar wins by now. But total losses could be the main differentiator

Houston (5 losses)
Iowa State (5 losses)
Illinois (7 losses)
Michigan State (7 losses)
Purdue (7 losses)
Florida (7 losses)
Texas Tech (7 losses)

Also, worth pointing out Florida and Illinois both have a bad (quad 2) loss. ISU will probably lose tonight, and Michigan State will probably lose at Michigan Saturday. There are some other tough games, but those stand out

 

[FriendlySpartan]

One of the major things to look at is total losses. Basically all the 2 seeds have similar wins by now. But total losses could be the main differentiator

Houston (5 losses)
Iowa State (5 losses)
Illinois (7 losses)
Michigan State (7 losses)
Purdue (7 losses)
Florida (7 losses)
Texas Tech (7 losses)

Also, worth pointing out Florida and Illinois both have a bad (quad 2) loss. ISU will probably lose tonight, and Michigan State will probably lose at Michigan Saturday. There are some other tough games, but those stand out

Sparty must have picked up another 2 losses in an alternate timeline lol