Bracket Predictions 2025-26

[cyclones500]

If we are the #5 overall seed, why would we get paired with the #1 overall seed?

Main note "regional balance":

Core placement steps​

• No. 1 seeds placed first:
  The four No. 1 seeds are assigned to the four regions, determining the Final Four semifinal pairings. The overall No. 1 seed chooses its preferred region and first-/second-round site.
• No. 2 seeds placed next:
  Assigned in true-seed order, with flexibility to move teams slightly to avoid placing the No. 5 seed in the same region as the overall No. 1.
  Conference-separation rules cannot be compromised.
• Placement of No. 3 and No. 4 seeds:
  These seeds are placed in each region according to the true-seed list.
• Check for regional balance:
  The committee compares the total seed values within each region to avoid significant imbalance (Preferably, no more than six points should separate the lowest and highest total).

Link

NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Selections

NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Selections

www.ncaa.org

 

[NENick]

Since many current brackets I've looked at have ISU as a 2-seed in the same bracket as Michigan, the presumptive overall #1, those who create those brackets either think location considerations will result in the assignment, or they feel at the end of the regular season ISU will end up as a lower 2-seed, or they aren't following bracketing principles.

 

[Cyhig]

Since many current brackets I've looked at have ISU as a 2-seed in the same bracket as Michigan, the presumptive overall #1, those who create those brackets either think location considerations will result in the assignment, or they feel at the end of the regular season ISU will end up as a lower 2-seed, or they aren't following bracketing principles.

The last part is the truth. They just place teams based on seed with little regard to any rules

 

[dahliaclone]

Inject this bracket/path/draw into my veins today

https://131sports.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/bracket-022026.pdf

 

[SolterraCyclone]

The last part is the truth. They just place teams based on seed with little regard to any rules

I’m seeing more and more brackets, as UConn slips to a 2 seed replaced by Houston for the last 1 seed, putting us in the East with Duke and UConn in the Midwest with Michigan.

I’m confused why. Is it due to the competitive balance? Because I’d think UConn would be the 2 in the East rather than the 2 in the Midwest.

 

[NiceMarmot]

Here's my bracket and resume comparisons headed into the weekend.

• I think there are some tiers developing:
  • Duke, Michigan, Arizona
  • Houston, UConn, Iowa State, Illinois
  • Purdue, Kansas, Florida
  • Nebraska, Gonzaga, Michigan State
  • The 4/5 seed contenders of Alabama, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Tennessee, St. John's, Arkansas, Louisville
• I still have Iowa State behind UConn but could see it either way. Both schools have big wins. UConn has the worst loss. UConn is higher in resume metrics; Iowa State is higher in predictive metrics. I think Illinois is right there too.
• Iowa State fans should root for Arizona this weekend. Opens up that last 1-seed for us if we go 2-0 on the Utah road trip.
• My current fear is us being a 1 or 2 seed in St. Louis and having to play a 7 or 8 seed Saint Louis in their city in the 2nd round. I know people think, "oh, it's a mid-major, we'll be fine." Saint Louis has the #1 effective FG% offense in the country and the #2 effective FG% defense in the country. Schertz is a wizard of a coach. I want no part of that with 1 day of prep in a game where the crowd will be 75-25 against us (you have to assume Illinois fans there would start to root for the underdog).

 

[Cyhig]

I’m seeing more and more brackets, as UConn slips to a 2 seed replaced by Houston for the last 1 seed, putting us in the East with Duke and UConn in the Midwest with Michigan.

I’m confused why. Is it due to the competitive balance? Because I’d think UConn would be the 2 in the East rather than the 2 in the Midwest.

That would be correct. Most "bracketology" experts are listing ISU as the first 2 seed. Using the S curve, they can't be placed in the same region as the first overall seed. So at this moment, any bracket showing ISU in the Midwest means either A) they don't understand bracket principles and/or B) feel ISU is not the first 2 seed

 

[NiceMarmot]

I’m seeing more and more brackets, as UConn slips to a 2 seed replaced by Houston for the last 1 seed, putting us in the East with Duke and UConn in the Midwest with Michigan.

I’m confused why. Is it due to the competitive balance? Because I’d think UConn would be the 2 in the East rather than the 2 in the Midwest.

If we are the 5th overall team (the highest 2-seed), we cannot play in the Midwest with Michigan if they are the overall 1-seed. As a reward for being the top overall seed, they never place the top 2-seed with the top 1-seed.

 

[dahliaclone]

I’m seeing more and more brackets, as UConn slips to a 2 seed replaced with Houston, putting us in the East with Duke and UConn in the Midwest with Michigan.

I’m confused why. Is it due to the competitive balance? Because I’d think UConn would be the 2 in the East rather than the 2 in the Midwest.

I think there's confusion (myself included) on what the committee actually does/prioritizes. Do they prioritize location/proximity for the top seeds or do they prioritize seeding? Because if it's based on the S curve, then, as of today, there is zero logical sense that Iowa State would be in Michigan's region. If Michigan is the overall 1 seed then, based on the S curve, they would be in the same region as the overall 8 seed (last 2 seed). And Iowa State is by and large the overall 5 seed. And as some knowledgable on this board said, the committee seems to do the S curve which is why ISU would be vs Duke in the East.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

If we are the 5th overall team (the highest 2-seed), we cannot play in the Midwest with Michigan if they are the overall 1-seed. As a reward for being the top overall seed, they never place the top 2-seed with the top 1-seed.

Gotcha ok. That makes sense. Surprising to me they’d slip UConn below ISU on the S-Curve.

Just playing bracket games, I don’t think we want that 5th spot on the S-Curve then (just my opinion). I’d rather keep winning and snag the last 1 seed in the South or fall back to snag the 2 seed in the Midwest. I don’t think there’s much difference playing Duke vs Michigan in the elite 8, so rather would play in Chicago than DC.

 

[NiceMarmot]

I think there's confusion (myself included) on what the committee actually does/prioritizes. Do they prioritize location/proximity for the top seeds or do they prioritize seeding? Because if it's based on the S curve, then, as of today, there is zero logical sense that Iowa State would be in Michigan's region. If Michigan is the overall 1 seed then, based on the S curve, they would be in the same region as the overall 8 seed (last 2 seed). And Iowa State is by and large the overall 5 seed. And as some knowledgable on this board said, the committee seems to do the S curve which is why ISU would be vs Duke in the East.

They don't directly consider the S-curve when placing teams into the bracket OUTSIDE of the very specific example of avoiding placing the top 2-seed with the top 1-seed. The second 2-seed (6 overall) could easily end up in the top overall seed's region.

From their bracketing principles, this is how they try to make sure the regions are as balanced as possible.

"After the top four seed lines have been assigned, the committee will review the relative strengths of the regions by adding the “true seed” numbers in each region to determine if any severe numerical imbalance exists. Preferably, no more than six points should separate the lowest and highest total."

This is a good link if anyone wants to read more about how bracketing is done.

 

[Jkclone15]

1st bracket reveal is Saturday. Feels later than past years but will give us an idea on the committee’s thoughts.
Having the national game wins vs KU and UH going in can’t hurt.

Why would Florida get a bump just because they're the SEC champion? Seeding should just be a blind resume comparison. Reeks of bias.

 

[dahliaclone]

Gotcha ok. That makes sense. Surprising to me they’d slip UConn below ISU on the S-Curve.

Just playing bracket games, I don’t think we want that 5th spot on the S-Curve then (just my opinion). I’d rather keep winning and snag the last 1 seed in the South or fall back to snag the 2 seed in the Midwest. I don’t think there’s much difference playing Duke vs Michigan in the elite 8, so rather would play in Chicago than DC.

UCONN's resume and metrics are good not great. Especially after a Q3 (now Q2) home loss to Creighton.

NET: 10
KenPom: 13
BartTorvik: 9

They absolutely should be a low 2/high 3 seed.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Here's my bracket and resume comparisons headed into the weekend.

View attachment 167933

• I think there are some tiers developing:
  • Duke, Michigan, Arizona
  • Houston, UConn, Iowa State, Illinois
  • Purdue, Kansas, Florida
  • Nebraska, Gonzaga, Michigan State
  • The 4/5 seed contenders of Alabama, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Tennessee, St. John's, Arkansas, Louisville
• I still have Iowa State behind UConn but could see it either way. Both schools have big wins. UConn has the worst loss. UConn is higher in resume metrics; Iowa State is higher in predictive metrics. I think Illinois is right there too.
• Iowa State fans should root for Arizona this weekend. Opens up that last 1-seed for us if we go 2-0 on the Utah road trip.
• My current fear is us being a 1 or 2 seed in St. Louis and having to play a 7 or 8 seed Saint Louis in their city in the 2nd round. I know people think, "oh, it's a mid-major, we'll be fine." Saint Louis has the #1 effective FG% offense in the country and the #2 effective FG% defense in the country. Schertz is a wizard of a coach. I want no part of that with 1 day of prep in a game where the crowd will be 75-25 against us (you have to assume Illinois fans there would start to root for the underdog).

As a beggar being a chooser, I think I’d prefer to avoid St Louis, Kentucky, and Wisconsin as a second-round matchup.

St. Louis for the reasons you mentioned, Kentucky and Wisconsin because they are wild cards. Both have big wins and stupefying losses. But they’re capable of slaying dragons.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Inject this bracket/path/draw into my veins today

https://131sports.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/bracket-022026.pdf

Great draw.

Iowa State, Kentucky and Illinois all in StL would make tickets approximately eleventy billion dollars.

 

[NiceMarmot]

UCONN's resume and metrics are good not great. Especially after a Q3 (now Q2) home loss to Creighton.

NET: 10
KenPom: 13
BartTorvik: 9

They absolutely should be a low 2/high 3 seed.

Those are predictive metrics. You have to look at the resume metrics like WAB, SOR, and KPI as well. They are 4/4/6 in those.

Torvik has a good page where you can look/sort that data.

 

[dahliaclone]

Those are predictive metrics. You have to look at the resume metrics like WAB, SOR, and KPI as well. They are 4/4/6 in those.

Torvik has a good page where you can look/sort that data.

Right but I'm saying you're seeing more predictions of them being that lower 2 seed in Michigan's region, meaning they aren't the overall 5 but could be 6/7/8. I personally think they lose two more anyway so they'll continue to fall.

 

[Cyballz]

every year the committee makes a different determination on what metrics are most important, just hope this year they pick metrics that benefit Iowa State. They pick the bracket they want and use whatever data fits to best explain why they chose it that way.

 

[dahliaclone]

I would forgo seeing if we got a #1 seed if we could have this be the final bracket. Our draw in our own region is very doable. And we'd be on the opposite side of the bracket from Michigan, Houston, Florida, Arizona.

https://131sports.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/bracket-022626.pdf

 

[CysEyesVet]

I would forgo seeing if we got a #1 seed if we could have this be the final bracket. Our draw in our own region is very doable. And we'd be on the opposite side of the bracket from Michigan, Houston, Florida, Arizona.

https://131sports.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/bracket-022626.pdf

I couldn't agree more. I think this would be a great draw, A 2 seed would still be exciting for sure!