2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[NoCreativity]

And what about Iowa state and all the metrics say we aren’t a title contender at this point in the season? Every metric says we are right there with the best of them. Or is that your weird ability to not be able to admit we are good?

If you read my posts I said Iowa State is elite and I just said they have the metrics and players right now. Im not sure why you think that im not admitting we are good when I literally said that.

Cloned4life pretty much summed it up so there's not much to add. The only thing I can add is I think we first need to get to a Final 4 and then we can start talking about National Championships.

 

[bawbie]

According to basketball-reference, Milan is now leading the NCAA with 88 made threes (next highest is 85) and is also leading in 3pt percentage at 54% (next highest is 50.7%)

I'm too lazy to look up if anyone has ever lead in both percentage and makes in a season - but I would guess not, that is insane.

 

[ABECyguy]

So, apparently Illinois now has the highest offensive efficiency rating in KenPom ever (since it started) at 130.9. Here are the other number 1 offenses (end of season) since 2020:

2026: 130.9 (Illinois)
2025: 130.1 (Duke)
2024: 127.5 (UConn)
2023: 122.3 (Gonzaga)
2022: 121.1 (Duke)
2021: 126.4 (Gonzaga)
2020: 121.3 (Gonzaga)

As far as I’m aware, this is on a “points per 100 possessions”. Or you could divide by 100 and think of it as points per possession. Crazy to see how much more efficient the offenses are the past couple seasons compared to 2022 or 2023.

For reference, our Iowa State Cyclones currently come in at 6th with an offensive efficiency of 126.3. That would have been the best offense in the country by a big margin in TJ's first couple years.

If anyone has a KenPom subscription or can more easily extract the data, I’d be curious to see the number of teams this season that have an offensive rating better than the number 1 in past seasons. Or just a comparison of how do the best teams this year compare in efficiency to the best teams of the past several years.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Up to #4 in the NET. I can't remember who, but someone went from Q3 to Q2 as I think we had a Q3 game in there last week.

Iowa State Cyclones Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists

bracketologists.com

 

[houjix]

Up to #4 in the NET. I can't remember who, but someone went from Q3 to Q2 as I think we had a Q3 game in there last week.

Iowa State Cyclones Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists

bracketologists.com

Miss St. maybe. They're at 94. That makes it a 51-100 Neutral since that game was in Sioux Falls.

 

[Clone95]

Up to #4 in the NET. I can't remember who, but someone went from Q3 to Q2 as I think we had a Q3 game in there last week.

Iowa State Cyclones Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists

bracketologists.com

It was CO. When we kild 'em they dropped way down, but then they beat down TCU and moved way up to the 60s in the NET.

 

[bawbie]

Cincy is sitting at 77, if they move up two spots that will move to a Q1 loss - although Creighton and Syracuse are sitting right above them, so it might not help us overall

 

[Clone95]

Cincy is sitting at 77, if they move up two spots that will move to a Q1 loss - although Creighton and Syracuse are sitting right above them, so it might not help us overall

Creighton or Syracuse have to get to #50 to be Q1, since it was neutral site, so that's not happening. Cincy only needs to get to 75 to be a Q1 loss. UCF is up to 37 so if they can pull out a couple of big performances, they could be a Q1 win.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Creighton or Syracuse have to get to #50 to be Q1, since it was neutral site, so that's not happening. Cincy only needs to get to 75 to be a Q1 loss. UCF is up to 37 so if they can pull out a couple of big performances, they could be a Q1 win.

I think our beatdown of UCF is seriously underrated, particularly when we were coming off a two game skid and needed that win in a big way. They only have one other loss on the road, at OSU by 11, so it's not like they're a bad road team either.

 

[rosshm16]

I think our main problem right now concerning seeding is that none of the other top teams have a loss as bad as our worst loss (Cincinnati).

 

[houjix]

I think our main problem right now concerning seeding is that none of the other top teams have a loss as bad as our worst loss (Cincinnati).

Michigan has a Q2 loss to Wisconsin. Looking at the Badgers upcoming schedule, that stink may hang around for a while yet.

 

[not-the-manager]

As of today I would think Illinois' loss to UConn is about the only thing standing in their way of getting a 1, in which case Iowa State would "just" have to avoid dropping to a 3 in order to end up in a different region. Now, if Illinois wins out, that would include wins at Michigan State and against Michigan, so if UConn stumbles...

I agree that the Cincinnati loss combined with their SOS leaves Iowa State almost no margin for error. For example, even if Nebraska loses to Purdue their losses would all be to top 15 teams. Half of Florida's losses are to top five teams (!).

Iowa State is a top eight team right now by every available metric, but if in a month the lines between ~7 and ~11 are very blurry, I don't think the committee—which I think has mostly bought into "Iowa State games the NET"—would be very forgiving. That's why I keep coming back to how important the Kansas and Houston games are

 

[cyclonestunners]

So, apparently Illinois now has the highest offensive efficiency rating in KenPom ever (since it started) at 130.9. Here are the other number 1 offenses (end of season) since 2020:

2026: 130.9 (Illinois)
2025: 130.1 (Duke)
2024: 127.5 (UConn)
2023: 122.3 (Gonzaga)
2022: 121.1 (Duke)
2021: 126.4 (Gonzaga)
2020: 121.3 (Gonzaga)

As far as I’m aware, this is on a “points per 100 possessions”. Or you could divide by 100 and think of it as points per possession. Crazy to see how much more efficient the offenses are the past couple seasons compared to 2022 or 2023.

For reference, our Iowa State Cyclones currently come in at 6th with an offensive efficiency of 126.3. That would have been the best offense in the country by a big margin in TJ's first couple years.

If anyone has a KenPom subscription or can more easily extract the data, I’d be curious to see the number of teams this season that have an offensive rating better than the number 1 in past seasons. Or just a comparison of how do the best teams this year compare in efficiency to the best teams of the past several years.

Interesting that only one of those won the championship. 4 made the final 4.

 

[Jkclone15]

As of today I would think Illinois' loss to UConn is about the only thing standing in their way of getting a 1, in which case Iowa State would "just" have to avoid dropping to a 3 in order to end up in a different region. Now, if Illinois wins out, that would include wins at Michigan State and against Michigan, so if UConn stumbles...

I agree that the Cincinnati loss combined with their SOS leaves Iowa State almost no margin for error. For example, even if Nebraska loses to Purdue their losses would all be to top 15 teams. Half of Florida's losses are to top five teams (!).

Iowa State is a top eight team right now by every available metric, but if in a month the lines between ~7 and ~11 are very blurry, I don't think the committee—which I think has mostly bought into "Iowa State games the NET"—would be very forgiving. That's why I keep coming back to how important the Kansas and Houston games are

Are they still on that "games the net"? I thought that ended after the team went to a better MTE and scheduled Purdue.

 

[KennyPratt42]

According to basketball-reference, Milan is now leading the NCAA with 88 made threes (next highest is 85) and is also leading in 3pt percentage at 54% (next highest is 50.7%)

I'm too lazy to look up if anyone has ever lead in both percentage and makes in a season - but I would guess not, that is insane.

The only high major 3 point shooting season comparable to what Milan is doing is Steve Kerr in '87-'88. He made 57.3% on 199 attempts.

For context that was the second season of the 3 point line in college basketball and it was at the current high school distance of 19'9" (little more that 2' inside the current NCAA 3 point line).

Steve Kerr College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Steve Kerr - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more

www.sports-reference.com

 

[Chitowncy]

I think our beatdown of UCF is seriously underrated, particularly when we were coming off a two game skid and needed that win in a big way. They only have one other loss on the road, at OSU by 11, so it's not like they're a bad road team either.

Agreed. I've also felt UCF has been underrated by the computers and bracketologists this year consistently when comparing them to other teams around their position. Until their win over Texas Tech over the weekend, the bracketologists had them as a bubble team with 9 seed type material. I remember them winning at Texas A&M early in the year (on the road) and they're still behind A&M in the Net and KenPom and all UCF's losses are good losses, with maybe the exception of Okie State, and their wins at home against KU, Texas Tech and at A&M are really good wins. Hope they get the bump they deserve to like the 6 seed range this week. Look at other 4 loss teams and compare resumes. Oh wait, they're probably the lowest 4 loss team.

Anyway, I pay attention to the other Big 12 teams and hope we sneak in as many as possible, but it's not looking good right now to get 8 or 9 into the Dance.

Edit: I suspect our annihilation of them by such a large margin maybe played a tiny role in their lower rating?

 

[Cyclonepride]

Agreed. I've also felt UCF has been underrated by the computers and bracketologists this year consistently when comparing them to other teams around their position. Until their win over Texas Tech over the weekend, the bracketologists had them as a bubble team with 9 seed type material. I remember them winning at Texas A&M early in the year (on the road) and they're still behind A&M in the Net and KenPom and all UCF's losses are good losses, with maybe the exception of Okie State, and their wins at home against KU, Texas Tech and at A&M are really good wins. Hope they get the bump they deserve to like the 6 seed range this week. Look at other 4 loss teams and compare resumes. Oh wait, they're probably the lowest 4 loss team.

Anyway, I pay attention to the other Big 12 teams and hope we sneak in as many as possible, but it's not looking good right now to get 8 or 9 into the Dance.

Edit: I suspect our annihilation of them by such a large margin maybe played a tiny role in their lower rating?

I think OSU has a chance to be team #8 if they take care of business with the bottom half and get one or two against the top half.

 

[Chitowncy]

I think OSU has a chance to be team #8 if they take care of business with the bottom half and get one or two against the top half.

Agreed. That's a solid OSU team.

I'm also holding out hope for TCU to sneak-in, but their Colorado loss last weekend won't help.

 

[MJ271]

Agreed. I've also felt UCF has been underrated by the computers and bracketologists this year consistently when comparing them to other teams around their position. Until their win over Texas Tech over the weekend, the bracketologists had them as a bubble team with 9 seed type material. I remember them winning at Texas A&M early in the year (on the road) and they're still behind A&M in the Net and KenPom and all UCF's losses are good losses, with maybe the exception of Okie State, and their wins at home against KU, Texas Tech and at A&M are really good wins. Hope they get the bump they deserve to like the 6 seed range this week. Look at other 4 loss teams and compare resumes. Oh wait, they're probably the lowest 4 loss team.

Anyway, I pay attention to the other Big 12 teams and hope we sneak in as many as possible, but it's not looking good right now to get 8 or 9 into the Dance.

Edit: I suspect our annihilation of them by such a large margin maybe played a tiny role in their lower rating?

At least in terms of Barttorvik and Kenpom, UCF is probably being pulled down by some lackluster performances in their non-conference. They beat Hofstra by 4, Oakland by 4, Quinnipiac by 11, and Florida Atlantic by 5. Those teams aren't awful, but they also aren't great--they all fall between 100 and 200 on Barttorvik.

But at least they avoided any of those being Q3 losses. Right now, UCF's W/L resume looks very solid: 4-4 in Q1 and no sub-Q1 losses.



In terms of perception, UCF was probably also hurt by losing to Vanderbilt before everyone realized how good Vanderbilt was, and beating Texas A&M before A&M showed themselves to be one of the better SEC teams. Both of those were in the first four games of the season; the rest of UCF's non-conference was pretty meh.

 

[not-the-manager]

Are they still on that "games the net"? I thought that ended after the team went to a better MTE and scheduled Purdue.

I haven't seen much of it yet but won't be at all surprised if it gets brought up later this month. Once again, Iowa State's NCSOS stands out among the top 11 on kenpom. Personally, I don't think beating teams by 40 is a knock against someone's resume, but it's looking like the differences between teams vying for 2 seeds are going to be small