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2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

not-the-manager said:
I like to this of this thread as more highbrow than most and thus containing less commentary. But what’s crazy is—IMHO—the defense could still be better, and we know if nothing else Otz & Co. can coach defense. So to pair that with potentially his best offense since becoming HC, which practically no one saw coming?? It’s extremely early, and guys are already hurt, but I’m just enjoying the ride
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Discussion is more than welcome in here, though this thread is the consolidated "nerd" thread for talking about analytics related to the college basketball season. Feel free to have some takes, but we prefer to have data behind them in here on just where exactly we are for this campaign.

:)
 
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cyclones122 said:
The only thing that is surprising, based on odds, is the final predicted record is 27-4 (14-4 in Big 12), yet it only gives us a 38% chance to beat Purdue. That final record prediction says we beat Purdue.
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Like @houjix it’s rounding. Those are separate estimates it’s not reconciling the 2.

32% isn’t estimated as a loss. If we had 10 games each estimated at 32% it’d project us to go 3-10 not 0-10.

That game might just move us from like 3.6 losses to 4.3 losses
 
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Sigmapolis said:
Discussion is more than welcome in here, though this thread is the consolidated "nerd" thread for talking about analytics related to the college basketball season. Feel free to have some takes, but we prefer to have data behind them in here on just where exactly we are for this campaign.

:)
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Meanwhile Sig
YAY6pIf.gif
 
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bawbie said:
Still #4 in KenPom, but up to #9 offense and #6 defense, making us and Duke the only teams in the Top 10 for both

That was our third straight 99 game score on Torvik, which is impressive. As is the 164 raw offensive efficiency (143 adjusted is off the charts too)

Both Jefferson and Kelderman had 200+ Offensive Ratings scores per Torvik in that game, which is basically perfect.
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I kinda doubt we stay top 10 in offense once shooting regresses but my hope is we haven’t seen this defensive ceiling yet.

Worth noting 9 vs 15 offense is only 0.7 points per 100 possessions difference. I think the defense could go from 92.5 to sub-90 like it has in some other years with similar personnel which would be net positive.
 
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I would bet that last night's 3 pt % will not be topped this season. That was ridiculous. However, this offense is definitely clicking and it won't be worse with Tamin back in the lineup.
 
Keep in mind with defensive stats/efficiencies..

It was 7-2 Alcorn State with 18:43 to go in the first half. They didn't get above 10 points until 14:28, and didn't get above 20 points until 4:24 left in the first (21-50).. 48-14 run in 14 minutes and 19 seconds

The defensive upside may not be #1 in the country, but make no mistake, this team can guard if they need to
 
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Maybe the most impressive thing this team has done so far is how good they've played in 8 straight games regardless of opponent quality or injury. Below is the Torvik game score graph for this season and last seasons for reference. One of the best graphs from last year was Duke who only had three games below a 90 game score (82, 70, & 77) and the majority of their games were 96+.

2025.png2024.png
 
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