I’d say last year by a slim margin but only because I’d Curtis Jones. Had he been able to come back this year I genuinely think we are top 3 in the country right now.
Higher Ceiling - 2024-2025 or 2025-2026?
- Thread starter ForeverIowan
- Start date
Either year’s team could have conceivably won a national title. But, like for any team, depends how things come together at the right time. Milan’s streakiness, Tamins injury, and the Gilbert thing was somewhat out of people’s control.
Stay healthy, consistent, and gel well… and we’ll see how it goes. But it should be fun.
Stay healthy, consistent, and gel well… and we’ll see how it goes. But it should be fun.
We've risen to #4 on KenPom and EvenMiya metrics without Lipsey the past two games. This team would be insane with CuJo
I’m a huge CuJo fan, but if Milan, Jefferson, and Tamin all continue with this elevated level of play with the addition of Buchanan and Toure and back ups of Heise, Batemon, Nelson, and Pleta, I think this team has the higher ceiling.
Ceiling as in likelihood to win multiple tournament games in a row, this year's team might have the higher ceiling.
Defensive rotation is unquestionably better with Buchanan and Pleta at the 5. That allows our guards to be more aggressive and Jefferson to play the 4 more often and be less gassed.
Last year, CuJo and peak health Gilbert were insane but we didn't have the same Lipsey, Jefferson or Milan we have now. It was a guard-driven offense that could go crazy or cold. Jefferson was a great passer but turned it over a lot, and Gilbert picked up a lot of turnovers playing hero ball
Tamin and Jefferson are more ball-secure creators this year. Passing and cutting is simply more reliable than self-create guard offense. We now have high IQ, skilled passers at every position on the court with a dynamic, efficient, mis-match and iso-capable scorer in Milan. We still have enough shooting to beat St. Johns when they outscored us in the paint.
If Batemon breaks out to 30% of what CuJo was, which sounds likely based on everything staff has said, this team is better all around IMO. That's without really mentioning Buchanan's passing, Toure being a beast, and Nelson bringing depth and a different look off the bench, or the fact that Pleta is rising fast and has potential to be one of the better back-up bigs in the league.
In sum, defense took a huge step, and while we lost some nuclear scoring options, we have more ways to get to 80 every night.
Defensive rotation is unquestionably better with Buchanan and Pleta at the 5. That allows our guards to be more aggressive and Jefferson to play the 4 more often and be less gassed.
Last year, CuJo and peak health Gilbert were insane but we didn't have the same Lipsey, Jefferson or Milan we have now. It was a guard-driven offense that could go crazy or cold. Jefferson was a great passer but turned it over a lot, and Gilbert picked up a lot of turnovers playing hero ball
Tamin and Jefferson are more ball-secure creators this year. Passing and cutting is simply more reliable than self-create guard offense. We now have high IQ, skilled passers at every position on the court with a dynamic, efficient, mis-match and iso-capable scorer in Milan. We still have enough shooting to beat St. Johns when they outscored us in the paint.
If Batemon breaks out to 30% of what CuJo was, which sounds likely based on everything staff has said, this team is better all around IMO. That's without really mentioning Buchanan's passing, Toure being a beast, and Nelson bringing depth and a different look off the bench, or the fact that Pleta is rising fast and has potential to be one of the better back-up bigs in the league.
In sum, defense took a huge step, and while we lost some nuclear scoring options, we have more ways to get to 80 every night.
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I'm going to flip it and say this team has a higher FLOOR. You can only get so good - once you reach "Final Four Capable" there isn't any higher ceiling. The question is how much disruption would it take to knock you down significantly? Last year we had a bunch of weird stuff happen and we ended up losing in the second weekend. If this year's team went through the same issues - extended time without Lipsey and Milan, along with a trading a slasher for a shooter - do we think we'd still end up with a similar result?
I think this team does have a higher floor. It looks like we have more options and less drop-off when rotations change. I feel like we can weather a couple injuries much better. We're better positioned to compete with elite teams when not full strength.
I think this team does have a higher floor. It looks like we have more options and less drop-off when rotations change. I feel like we can weather a couple injuries much better. We're better positioned to compete with elite teams when not full strength.
So far we feel somewhat more consistent offensively but its still early in the season.
Toure feels like he'll always bring energy. Hopefully momchilavic and jefferson can keep this production up. So far St. Johns is the only good team we've played.
Toure feels like he'll always bring energy. Hopefully momchilavic and jefferson can keep this production up. So far St. Johns is the only good team we've played.
On limited sample size I think this year's Lipsey, Jefferson, Milan are better than last year's. I think the 5 spot of Buck & Pleta are much better on D and probably better on O than last year. No doubt Toure is better on D than Key, but MIGHT be just a bit less on O. Heise looks improved from Heise of last year. So only question is can Nelson & Batemon together pick up some of Cujo offense? I think they'll do enough because the others are also better on Offense. Right now the sum looks better with higher floor and ceiling.
I think the question is whether the ceiling at the end of November is higher than the ceiling at the end of November last year? Or higher than the results of last year?
It’s hard to separate the ceiling last year from the actual results - which were obviously less than the best case scenario.
I think the ceiling last year was probably higher, but it’s close and hopefully this team exceeds the worst case scenario.
It’s hard to separate the ceiling last year from the actual results - which were obviously less than the best case scenario.
I think the ceiling last year was probably higher, but it’s close and hopefully this team exceeds the worst case scenario.
While I agree with most of what you are saying, I'm unsure why you think Toure is less on Offense! He was the highest scorer against Creighton and second highest against Syracuse. At this rate, I'd wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being a One-and-Done.
Last year's defensive metrics were really good but they were leaky on recovery down low iirc even before the injuries.
Buchanan might be a bit quicker like Rob Jones in that regard.
Buchanan might be a bit quicker like Rob Jones in that regard.
Oh I don't disagree. But just cautious if he can sustain this level of O.
It's pretty close when both teams are healthy but everyone is better compared to last year so I give this years team the higher up side with the freshman inevitably getting better as the year goes on.
This team feels like the good parts from last year and Robert's senior year put together.
This team feels like the good parts from last year and Robert's senior year put together.
With vantage of hindsight, this year’s team has a higher ceiling. Joshua has a shot of national player of the year, depending on how well the team does in the conference.
Higher Ceiling? I'd say this year's team, no questions asked. We don't have as many proven high-level guards as last year, but we have enough varying styles of skill and depth this season at the 1-3 spots to play however we wish, given any matchup.
Pleta is the key IMO to this year's ceiling. He and Blake both have good offensive instincts. Oddly enough Pleta "looks" oafy, but he always gets to his spot and makes quick adjustments. As long as he keeps progressing and getting better at defensive rotations, it gives the ability to balance minutes and depth with Blake, and allows JJ to stay at the 4 for mismatches.
Pleta is the key IMO to this year's ceiling. He and Blake both have good offensive instincts. Oddly enough Pleta "looks" oafy, but he always gets to his spot and makes quick adjustments. As long as he keeps progressing and getting better at defensive rotations, it gives the ability to balance minutes and depth with Blake, and allows JJ to stay at the 4 for mismatches.
It's hard to say...this season we are only 7 games in. The freshmen haven't had a true tough road environment to deal with yet. Purdue will tell us even more how well they handle it. Then there's the absolute grind of the Big12. The freshmen will have to learn how to navigate that too. They may experience a first year wall.
Yes because you can prove 100% that this happened last year.
Spoiler alert, you can’t, because it didn’t happen
Everyone keeps saying St Johns is the only good team we've played.
Syracuse took Houston to overtime and played Kansas close.
Creighton beat Oregon by double digits and played Baylor close.
I understand those arent upper tier teams this year but they are both dang proud programs and have already shown they are capable of competing with good teams. We blew the doors off both of them.
Syracuse took Houston to overtime and played Kansas close.
Creighton beat Oregon by double digits and played Baylor close.
I understand those arent upper tier teams this year but they are both dang proud programs and have already shown they are capable of competing with good teams. We blew the doors off both of them.
The FT issue will definitely come into play. This is one issue we need to fix pronto
