Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[cykadelic2]

I don't think billionaires are inherently evil, but as far as I can tell this particular billionaire's plan is to lobby the government to allow him to form a cartel, strong-arm other schools into joining said cartel, and using that power to increase revenues while capping his labor costs. He's no hero, he's looking out for #1.

Obviously it's appealing to ACC and B12 schools because we get in on the top floor and pull up the ladder behind us, but it's not very attractive to anyone else. Even if you throw the G5/6 some extra money for leaving them behind it'll get eaten up right away by inflated costs (if everyone gets more money everyone has to spend more money to keep up), and they'll lose exposure, which is their primary reason for existence. The top of the B10/SEC can afford the current system and are doing just fine. The bottom of those conferences lose out relative to everyone else in the P4. I don't think they'll come along willingly.

This won't get solved by brute forcing a solution that picks winners and losers. I'll start to have faith in a solution when I hear university presidents (not ADs) are getting together to discuss how the college sports business model can work going forward. And I don't think that will happen until ratings/revenues start to fall, which doesn't seem to be happening yet.

Not sure how you’re concluding that Campbell’s intent is to cap labor costs. House Settlement already did that and SCORE would codify House. And everyone wants NIL regulation except for agents and SCORE addresses that as well.

And you’re wrong about the top of the B10 and SEC not benefiting. They double their media revenues like everyone else would and would maintain their revenue advantages with an element of unequal revenue sharing based on TV ratings. And obviously G5 would benefit with doubling of their revenues as well and a separate G5 playoff would finally afford those schools deserved access to a national championship instead of the current BS with token CFP access for only one team that has no shot at a national title.

The only parties not benefiting from Campbell reform are ESPN and Fox which is why they are refusing to broadcast Campbell’s ads.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Not sure how you’re concluding that Campbell’s intent is to cap labor costs. House Settlement already did that and SCORE would codify House. And everyone wants NIL regulation except for agents and SCORE addresses that as well.

And you’re wrong about the top of the B10 and SEC not benefiting. They double their media revenues like everyone else would and would maintain their revenue advantages with an element of unequal revenue sharing based on TV ratings. And obviously G5 would benefit with doubling of their revenues as well and a separate G5 playoff would finally afford those schools deserved access to a national championship instead of the current BS with token CFP access for only one team that has no shot at a national title.

The only parties not benefiting from Campbell reform are ESPN and Fox which is why they are refusing to broadcast Campbell’s ads.

The G5 does not want their own playoff. They want access to the current CFP and a true national title, even if it's one bid. If winning a lesser national title was what they wanted, they'd all drop to the FCS.

Seems as though you're (royal you) more than willing to relegate certain leagues without a thought while crying crocodile tears about Wazzu and Oregon State.

Also, TV partners were more than willing to broadcast his ads right up until he started taking petty shots at conference commissioners that would make political strategists in insignificant state house races blush.

 

[cykadelic2]

Honest question because I don't know and you seem to have done your homework on the nooks and crannies of the Campbell proposal.

Do we know who commissioned the studies that he is using to come up with those numbers? I assume the premise is that it'll get Amazon and Apple into the pool when I struggle with the notion that the big brands are going to allow big games and matchups to be streaming only.

The other struggle I have with it is comparing to the NFL and NBA. The NFL is a behemoth that no other entity can even hope to replicate the success of and the NBA offers programming every night of the week for 7+ months of the year that finishes in the top 3 on cable pretty much every night. College football just doesn't have that kind of volume to sell.

@isucy86 makes a great point that every time we talk about the bubble bursting, the next deal just gets bigger and bigger and bigger.

Already posted these links multiple times:

Is college football undervalued? America's second-most popular game still leaving billions on the table

Ripe for venture capitalists and mega streaming deals down the line, college football's bottom line is getting astronomical

www.cbssports.com

Meet Cody Campbell, the billionaire Texas Tech booster with plan to save college sports

A billionaire and capital investment savant, Texas Tech booster Cody Campbell has a plan to save college sports from itself.

www.usatoday.com

In addition, Campbell has publicly cited that virtually all media experts, institutions,non-profits and other groups that have commissioned extensive studies have concluded the conservative annual benefit would be $7B. I am not aware of anyone disputing those studies that is not affiliated with ESPN, Fox, SEC or B10.

And the NFL already has streaming only playoff games, if the money is right, CFB will do likewise to some extent as well, but not completely.

 

[Kinch]

Already posted these links multiple times:

Is college football undervalued? America's second-most popular game still leaving billions on the table

Ripe for venture capitalists and mega streaming deals down the line, college football's bottom line is getting astronomical

www.cbssports.com

Meet Cody Campbell, the billionaire Texas Tech booster with plan to save college sports

A billionaire and capital investment savant, Texas Tech booster Cody Campbell has a plan to save college sports from itself.

www.usatoday.com

In addition, Campbell has publicly cited that virtually all media experts, institutions,non-profits and other groups that have commissioned extensive studies have concluded the conservative annual benefit would be $7B. I am not aware of anyone disputing those studies that is not affiliated with ESPN, Fox, SEC or B10.

And the NFL already has streaming only playoff games, if the money is right, CFB will do likewise to some extent as well, but not completely.

March Madness is doing $1 billion in TV rights. That gives a lot of credence to the $7B estimate for football.

 

[cykadelic2]

The G5 does not want their own playoff. They want access to the current CFP and a true national title, even if it's one bid. If winning a lesser national title was what they wanted, they'd all drop to the FCS.

Seems as though you're (royal you) more than willing to relegate certain leagues without a thought while crying crocodile tears about Wazzu and Oregon State.

Also, TV partners were more than willing to broadcast his ads right up until he started taking petty shots at conference commissioners that would make political strategists in insignificant state house races blush.

The G5 would earn more money with their own playoff and legit access to a FB national championship like every other NCAA sport. It’s not relegation as you suggest given they are already being relegated both competitively and financially in the current BS format.

And not surprised you are a Sankey and Pettiti sympathizer given your posting history on this topic. Poor Greggy and Toni taking those awful petty shots from Campbell while they continue to eff up a sport in partnership with ESPN and Fox.

 

[cykadelic2]

March Madness is doing $1 billion in TV rights. That gives a lot of credence to the $7B estimate for football.

And March Madness is undervalued as well but not near to the extent that FBS CFB is. NCAA has never been great media negotiators.

 

[Kinch]

Kinda interesting the battle that Washington States U.S. Representative is waging against Greggy. Looks like he’s getting under Greggy’s skin.

 

[HouClone]

Kinda interesting the battle that Washington States U.S. Representative is waging against Greggy. Looks like he’s getting under Greggy’s skin.

Sankey complaining about the G6 not directly talking to him. I guess he forgets about his meetings with Petitti only to shape the New CFP World Order.

 

[HouClone]

Been talked the past several pages on this thread, but Cody Campbell must be making progress as the Big 10 and SEC have called in their media minions to attack Campbell this past week.

 

[qwerty]

Former player donates $50M to Stanford football

The Stanford football program has received a $50 million gift from former player Bradford M. Freeman, a significant donation as Stanford attempts to revive the fortunes of the football program under new general manager Andrew Luck.

www.espn.com

 

[Kinch]

UT is going bonkers on the Athletic story on Arch. They said it went too far. The funny thing is two months ago their Athletic had a story saying Sark was the next Saban. I don’t think I read any UT fans saying that went too far. It’s amusing to me.

 

[cytor]

And March Madness is undervalued as well but not near to the extent that FBS CFB is. NCAA has never been great media negotiators.

March Madness is WAY better than the college football playoffs.

 

[MugNight]

UT is going bonkers on the Athletic story on Arch. They said it went too far. The funny thing is two months ago their Athletic had a story saying Sark was the next Saban. I don’t think I read any UT fans saying that went too far. It’s amusing to me.

6 weeks ago we all had to watch Fox hand Arch the pre-season Heisman in the lead up to the Ohio State game. Fast forward and the Longhorns are out of the top 25 and the pitchforks are coming out.

He’s already made millions in NIL, he’s got NFL Royalty on the back of his jersey, and he made some big plays in garbage time last season.

At the same time he’s a 20 year old learning the ropes as a starting QB in the SEC. The meteoric expectations that fans and media levy on him are not fair, but that’s the world we are in now.

With social media + NIL + betting, fans have never felt more entitled to critique players. UT fans and the media machine did this to themselves.

 

[QBEagles]

Not sure how you’re concluding that Campbell’s intent is to cap labor costs. House Settlement already did that and SCORE would codify House. And everyone wants NIL regulation except for agents and SCORE addresses that as well.

And you’re wrong about the top of the B10 and SEC not benefiting. They double their media revenues like everyone else would and would maintain their revenue advantages with an element of unequal revenue sharing based on TV ratings. And obviously G5 would benefit with doubling of their revenues as well and a separate G5 playoff would finally afford those schools deserved access to a national championship instead of the current BS with token CFP access for only one team that has no shot at a national title.

The only parties not benefiting from Campbell reform are ESPN and Fox which is why they are refusing to broadcast Campbell’s ads.

If the big schools wanted this, Campbell wouldn't need an ad campaign to make it happen. They have all the brand power. The commissioners work for them, and they aren't shy about taking advantage of networks or dumping them for more money. If the blue bloods get on board I'll change my tune, but I suspect they either think the advantages of the current system outweigh the extra $$$, or are skeptical of how much more money is out there. A 2-3X increase just from rights pooling is a bold claim unless it includes the next inflationary bump already. I'm getting "P12 is worth $50M/school" vibes from that.

And as mentioned, the G6 highly values the exposure of being in the same ecosystem as the P4. Most of those ADs are running $20M+ deficits (covered by university funds) because they think it's worth the cost of competing at the top level, title odds be damned. Doubling their $500k-$7M media deals won't make up for that, especially after all the money added to the system causes salary inflation. Now if you want to argue the G6 should take what they can get because the P2/4 are liable to break away and leave them with nothing, then you probably have a point. I don't see a happy ending for them either way.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

If the big schools wanted this, Campbell wouldn't need an ad campaign to make it happen. They have all the brand power. The commissioners work for them, and they aren't shy about taking advantage of networks or dumping them for more money. If the blue bloods get on board I'll change my tune, but I suspect they either think the advantages of the current system outweigh the extra $$$, or are skeptical of how much more money is out there. A 2-3X increase just from rights pooling is a bold claim unless it includes the next inflationary bump already. I'm getting "P12 is worth $50M/school" vibes from that.

And as mentioned, the G6 highly values the exposure of being in the same ecosystem as the P4. Most of those ADs are running $20M+ deficits (covered by university funds) because they think it's worth the cost of competing at the top level, title odds be damned. Doubling their $500k-$7M media deals won't make up for that, especially after all the money added to the system causes salary inflation. Now if you want to argue the G6 should take what they can get because the P2/4 are liable to break away and leave them with nothing, then you probably have a point. I don't see a happy ending for them either way.

Dead on. If it were about controlling costs for the G6, they'd all have dropped to the FCS a long time ago where they can play for a lesser national title and not get the exposure that they currently do.

Everybody looks at mid-week football as a kind of joke but, in reality, it's incredibly valuable for some of those universities and conferences to have what's basically a 3 hour infomercial on national TV on Tuesday or Wednesday night. The 200k people that tune in are way more than they'd ever get being buried on ESPN+ on Saturday afternoon.

 

[CascadeClone]

Dead on. If it were about controlling costs for the G6, they'd all have dropped to the FCS a long time ago where they can play for a lesser national title and not get the exposure that they currently do.

Everybody looks at mid-week football as a kind of joke but, in reality, it's incredibly valuable for some of those universities and conferences to have what's basically a 3 hour infomercial on national TV on Tuesday or Wednesday night. The 200k people that tune in are way more than they'd ever get being buried on ESPN+ on Saturday afternoon.

What would anyone know about Applachian State University if they weren't on TV once in a while and beat UM in the big house?

Not much.

Is it worth a $20M annual cost for that exposure? IDK, smarter folks than I would have to say.

 

[Kinch]

What would anyone know about Applachian State University if they weren't on TV once in a while and beat UM in the big house?

Not much.

Is it worth a $20M annual cost for that exposure? IDK, smarter folks than I would have to say.

Well, Iowa athletic department just got a $50 million welfare payment from the state. I would say it wasn’t worth it based on past results.

 

[MugNight]

Well, Iowa athletic department just got a $50 million welfare payment from the state. I would say it wasn’t worth it based on past results.

It’s a shame that ISU has been responsible and developed a surplus that may whittle away in the next few years while our great friends in IC got a loan during Covid while they cut Olympic sports and gave Kirk Ferentz a raise in the same breath. They’ll pay a few million here or there and then it’ll be quietly written off.

I hope the state is as generous with us if and when we might need that kind of support.

 

[Kinch]

It’s a shame that ISU has been responsible and developed a surplus that may whittle away in the next few years while our great friends in IC got a loan during Covid while they cut Olympic sports and gave Kirk Ferentz a raise in the same breath. They’ll pay a few million here or there and then it’ll be quietly written off.

I hope the state is as generous with us if and when we might need that kind of support.

I forgot to add the multi million settlement against Kirk and Barta that they wanted the state to pay.

 

[cykadelic2]

If the big schools wanted this, Campbell wouldn't need an ad campaign to make it happen. They have all the brand power. The commissioners work for them, and they aren't shy about taking advantage of networks or dumping them for more money. If the blue bloods get on board I'll change my tune, but I suspect they either think the advantages of the current system outweigh the extra $$$, or are skeptical of how much more money is out there. A 2-3X increase just from rights pooling is a bold claim unless it includes the next inflationary bump already. I'm getting "P12 is worth $50M/school" vibes from that.

And as mentioned, the G6 highly values the exposure of being in the same ecosystem as the P4. Most of those ADs are running $20M+ deficits (covered by university funds) because they think it's worth the cost of competing at the top level, title odds be damned. Doubling their $500k-$7M media deals won't make up for that, especially after all the money added to the system causes salary inflation. Now if you want to argue the G6 should take what they can get because the P2/4 are liable to break away and leave them with nothing, then you probably have a point. I don't see a happy ending for them either way.

It's not about the big schools wanting this. It's about the networks not wanting it and using their puppets, Sankey and Pettiti, to keep the status quo, continue additional brand consolidation into the SEC & B10 at discounted payouts and keep deeper pocketed media providers out of the CFP space.

And the G6 is not truly competing at the highest level of CFB as you suggest. They are only getting a single token CFP slot and and effing 5 of their conference champs out of competing for a national championship.

They would get for more far more exposure and make far more money with a separate 8-team playoff that would utilize existing bowl games for their semi-final games and final games. I would sure as hell would watch those games instead of an exhibition and meaningless P4 bowl game with opt outs, etc.

And the G5 makes that extra money with a separate playoff by strategically bundling their rights with the rights of the realigned P7 conferences (e.g. if you want SEC rights, you have to pay for partial G5 rights as well).