Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[cykadelic2]

Is there any proof that negotiating a single media deal will lead to a gold rush of revenue for colleges that can't be achieved by other means?

Campbell and others have cited multiple studies that support that FBS media rights pooling would double/triple revenues for all FBS schools. I have yet to see anybody not affiliated with the SEC, B10, ESPN and Fox dispute otherwise. And anyone with common sense can see what it does for the NFL and NBA.

And anyone with common sense that understands past realignment motives (i.e. brand consolidation into ESPN/SEC and Fox/B10) is well aware those motives will continue into the future without the SBA amendment, media rights pooling and rational geographic realignment. And that means 20-30 existing ACC and B12 ADs (including ISU) will see their media payouts at least cut in half at the end of the decade with those ADs being financially destroyed along with G5 schools (with their existing meager payouts) having to cut multiple sports.

And that justifies the ongoing Fed regulation efforts to prevent it.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

With this silly misguided hot take, your credibility score on this board is now officially at zero.

Hahaha I’m very happy with my take over you thinking billionaires are moral figures.

 

[cykadelic2]

Hahaha I’m very happy with my take over you thinking billionaires are moral figures.

......your juvenile silliness continues. And it has nothing to do with Campbell.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

......your juvenile silliness continues. And it has nothing to do with Campbell.

Hahahahaha the person who believes billionaires are good people is calling someone else juvenile. That’s incredible. No notes

 

[Clonedogg]

Hahaha I’m very happy with my take over you thinking billionaires are moral figures.

Sorry, I don't think anyone is saying, billionaires = moral, but rather against the notion, any/all billionaire = amoral.

Dehumanizing someone solely based on one criteria, bad form.

 

[Kinch]

Hahahahaha the person who believes billionaires are good people is calling someone else juvenile. That’s incredible. No notes

When did the writer say that?

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Sorry, I don't think anyone is saying, billionaires = moral, but rather against the notion, any/all billionaire = amoral.

Dehumanizing someone solely based on one criteria, bad form.

I’m not gonna derail this thread anymore but billionaires by their very nature of hoarding resources beyond what anyone could ever utilize in their lifetime while their own employees and other go without is by definition amoral.

Ton of papers and research on this. There is no reason ever get to that point, just look at the founder of Patagonia as an example of what actual morals look like for the mega rich. Actual billionaires don’t have them

 

[Clonedogg]

Hahahahaha the person who believes billionaires are good people is calling someone else juvenile. That’s incredible. No notes

You're in a tailspin and I'm just going to get off here. I hope you have a good day, peace to you.

 

[isucy86]

Campbell and others have cited multiple studies that support that FBS media rights pooling would double/triple revenues for all FBS schools. I have yet to see anybody not affiliated with the SEC, B10, ESPN and Fox dispute otherwise. And anyone with common sense can see what it does for the NFL and NBA.

And anyone with common sense that understands past realignment motives (i.e. brand consolidation into ESPN/SEC and Fox/B10) is well aware those motives will continue into the future without the SBA amendment, media rights pooling and rational geographic realignment. And that means 20-30 existing ACC and B12 ADs (including ISU) will see their media payouts at least cut in half at the end of the decade with those ADs being financially destroyed along with G5 schools (with their existing meager payouts) having to cut multiple sports.

And that justifies the ongoing Fed regulation efforts to prevent it.

Look at past media rights deals other than the Big12's decision to extend. The most recent Big10, SEC and ACC deals all doubled their media rights revenue over their prior TV deal. Every reason to expect that 2-3x multiple will happen again in 2030 for the reasons I've mentioned previously (new streaming players like Netflix/Amazon, need by ESPN/FOX/Warner Bros/Comcast to grow their DTC platforms and as Yormark has expressed negotiate separate TV deals for FB, MBB, etc.

Nobody forced the Big12 (Yormark) to extend its deal with ESPN & FOX in 2024. If other media players would have an expressed an interest to pay more, I'm sure Yormark would have considered those offers. A change to the SBA can't force new parties to the table if the investment in college sports isn't profitable.

You compare CFB to the NFL quite a lot, but you seem to forget that media companies pay a premium for high ratings because advertisers pay more if 15m people are watching a game vs. 2M. In CFB having 10M views for a game is the exception and only a handfull of games each week attract 5M+ viewers. Creating a 70 team league isn't going to create a CFB ecosystem with more fans watching individual games or overall.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Campbell and others have cited multiple studies that support that FBS media rights pooling would double/triple revenues for all FBS schools. I have yet to see anybody not affiliated with the SEC, B10, ESPN and Fox dispute otherwise. And anyone with common sense can see what it does for the NFL and NBA.

And anyone with common sense that understands past realignment motives (i.e. brand consolidation into ESPN/SEC and Fox/B10) is well aware those motives will continue into the future without the SBA amendment, media rights pooling and rational geographic realignment. And that means 20-30 existing ACC and B12 ADs (including ISU) will see their media payouts at least cut in half at the end of the decade with those ADs being financially destroyed along with G5 schools (with their existing meager payouts) having to cut multiple sports.

And that justifies the ongoing Fed regulation efforts to prevent it.

Honest question because I don't know and you seem to have done your homework on the nooks and crannies of the Campbell proposal.

Do we know who commissioned the studies that he is using to come up with those numbers? I assume the premise is that it'll get Amazon and Apple into the pool when I struggle with the notion that the big brands are going to allow big games and matchups to be streaming only.

The other struggle I have with it is comparing to the NFL and NBA. The NFL is a behemoth that no other entity can even hope to replicate the success of and the NBA offers programming every night of the week for 7+ months of the year that finishes in the top 3 on cable pretty much every night. College football just doesn't have that kind of volume to sell.

@isucy86 makes a great point that every time we talk about the bubble bursting, the next deal just gets bigger and bigger and bigger.

 

[CascadeClone]

He’s a billionaire, by default he is amoral

How rich can I be before I am automatically amoral?
I will assume it is a number that is larger than your personal net worth, but when does the amorality kick in?

Realted question- can the poor be amoral? Or are they automatically moral due to their poverty?

edit- didn't see we have clocked out on this sub-sub-sub topic. nevermind!

 

[Kinch]

These Tweet will never go out of style

 

[cykadelic2]

Look at past media rights deals other than the Big12's decision to extend. The most recent Big10, SEC and ACC deals all doubled their media rights revenue over their prior TV deal. Every reason to expect that 2-3x multiple will happen again in 2030 for the reasons I've mentioned previously (new streaming players like Netflix/Amazon, need by ESPN/FOX/Warner Bros/Comcast to grow their DTC platforms and as Yormark has expressed negotiate separate TV deals for FB, MBB, etc.

Nobody forced the Big12 (Yormark) to extend its deal with ESPN & FOX in 2024. If other media players would have an expressed an interest to pay more, I'm sure Yormark would have considered those offers. A change to the SBA can't force new parties to the table if the investment in college sports isn't profitable.

You compare CFB to the NFL quite a lot, but you seem to forget that media companies pay a premium for high ratings because advertisers pay more if 15m people are watching a game vs. 2M. In CFB having 10M views for a game is the exception and only a handfull of games each week attract 5M+ viewers. Creating a 70 team league isn't going to create a CFB ecosystem with more fans watching individual games or overall.

We have been through this multiple times before in this thread and for whatever reason, the logic and benefits of media rights pooling with rational realignment don't register with you.

The reason why Yormark didn't get higher payouts in the current deal and legit bids from providers other than Fox and ESPN was due to Fox/ESPN consolidating the top brands to the B10 and SEC (OUT & USC/UDub/Oregon/UCLA). And given that the likes of CBS, Amazon, WBD, etc. don't have a clear path to CFP rights, they don't have the incentive to submit higher bids for B12 inventory that don't have perceived national brands (especially without UT and OU).

If the same climate for both of these factors exists in 2030, B12 payouts will decrease and the gap between those payouts and what the SEC/B10 get (after poaching and killing off the ACC) will at least double and that will essentially financially relegate and destroy leftover B12 and ACC schools (including ISU).

Pooling with rational realignment to 7x10 conferences where each conference has tentpole brand programs and partial access to CFP rights is granted to bid winners will easily double/triple revenues for all existing P4 programs. Bundling G5 regular season/playoff rights with P7 conference rights will also double/triple rights for G5 programs as well.

Exactly what the NFL does and exactly why ESPN and Fox are fighting this. ESPN and Fox want to continue their existing stranglehold on the sport at discounted payouts for their sole benefit.

 

[2speedy1]

It feels like the last 500 pages or so have been the same few people arguing the same argument about whether Cody Campbell is right or wrong.

 

[IceCyIce]

It feels like the last 500 pages or so have been the same few people arguing the same argument about whether Cody Campbell is right or wrong.

I'll take the leadership role here, and be judge and jury.

Cody Campbell is correct, blow up the NCAA, pool the TV contracts, bring back regionality back to college football. Make College Football Great Again (MCFGA). So it is said, so it shall be!!

 

[isucy86]

We have been through this multiple times before in this thread and for whatever reason, the logic and benefits of media rights pooling with rational realignment don't register with you.

The reason why Yormark didn't get higher payouts in the current deal and legit bids from providers other than Fox and ESPN was due to Fox/ESPN consolidating the top brands to the B10 and SEC (OUT & USC/UDub/Oregon/UCLA). And given that the likes of CBS, Amazon, WBD, etc. don't have a clear path to CFP rights, they don't have the incentive to submit higher bids for B12 inventory that don't have perceived national brands (especially without UT and OU).

If the same climate for both of these factors exists in 2030, B12 payouts will decrease and the gap between those payouts and what the SEC/B10 get (after poaching and killing off the ACC) will at least double and that will essentially financially relegate and destroy leftover B12 and ACC schools (including ISU).

Pooling with rational realignment to 7x10 conferences where each conference has tentpole brand programs and partial access to CFP rights is granted to bid winners will easily double/triple revenues for all existing P4 programs. Bundling G5 regular season/playoff rights with P7 conference rights will also double/triple rights for G5 programs as well.

Exactly what the NFL does and exactly why ESPN and Fox are fighting this. ESPN and Fox want to continue their existing stranglehold on the sport at discounted payouts for their sole benefit.

Just because people don't agree with you, doesn't mean they don't understand the issue. Just means they view the issues and/or solutions differently.

I'd love for something like 7 ten team geography-based conferences. But it's not realistic. Just like pooling TV rights. Don't see how legislation can force the Big 10/SEC to the table.

And if somehow Big 10/SEC were open to a single TV deal, the elites would demand unequal distribution of TV monies. Forcing Big12/ACC schools to spend a higher % of their revenue on FB & MBB. Not solving the Olympic Sport implosion you and Cody are losing sleep over.

 

[QBEagles]

I don't think billionaires are inherently evil, but as far as I can tell this particular billionaire's plan is to lobby the government to allow him to form a cartel, strong-arm other schools into joining said cartel, and using that power to increase revenues while capping his labor costs. He's no hero, he's looking out for #1.

Obviously it's appealing to ACC and B12 schools because we get in on the top floor and pull up the ladder behind us, but it's not very attractive to anyone else. Even if you throw the G5/6 some extra money for leaving them behind it'll get eaten up right away by inflated costs (if everyone gets more money everyone has to spend more money to keep up), and they'll lose exposure, which is their primary reason for existence. The top of the B10/SEC can afford the current system and are doing just fine. The bottom of those conferences lose out relative to everyone else in the P4. I don't think they'll come along willingly.

This won't get solved by brute forcing a solution that picks winners and losers. I'll start to have faith in a solution when I hear university presidents (not ADs) are getting together to discuss how the college sports business model can work going forward. And I don't think that will happen until ratings/revenues start to fall, which doesn't seem to be happening yet.

 

[Kinch]

I don't think billionaires are inherently evil, but as far as I can tell this particular billionaire's plan is to lobby the government to allow him to form a cartel, strong-arm other schools into joining said cartel, and using that power to increase revenues while capping his labor costs. He's no hero, he's looking out for #1.

Obviously it's appealing to ACC and B12 schools because we get in on the top floor and pull up the ladder behind us, but it's not very attractive to anyone else. Even if you throw the G5/6 some extra money for leaving them behind it'll get eaten up right away by inflated costs (if everyone gets more money everyone has to spend more money to keep up), and they'll lose exposure, which is their primary reason for existence. The top of the B10/SEC can afford the current system and are doing just fine. The bottom of those conferences lose out relative to everyone else in the P4. I don't think they'll come along willingly.

This won't get solved by brute forcing a solution that picks winners and losers. I'll start to have faith in a solution when I hear university presidents (not ADs) are getting together to discuss how the college sports business model can work going forward. And I don't think that will happen until ratings/revenues start to fall, which doesn't seem to be happening yet.

If the Iowa State president favors Campbell I’m in favor him, that’s the only president I’m interested in hearing what their opinion is. Also, JP has my best interest at heart and deserves my support. Also, CW and BB also put their support and as a Cyclone fan, I put my trust in their opinion.

 

[RustShack]

The Big12 could have got more from streaming, but didn’t go to market. They kept ESPN and Fox. The PAC could have had our deal, but they went to market and the Big12 took the deal before them. The PAC did get offered a bump from streaming, but as of now no one wants that deal because the eyeballs aren’t there(yet). So they elected to jump to the Big12/ACC and obviously the two who jumped to the B1G first then the other two joined later.

 

[cykadelic2]

I'll take the leadership role here, and be judge and jury.

Cody Campbell is correct, blow up the NCAA, pool the TV contracts, bring back regionality back to college football. Make College Football Great Again (MCFGA). So it is said, so it shall be!!

Campbell could roll with MCFGA but his top ally at this point is Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell who is pushing the SAFE Act which includes amending the SBA and could facilitate bipartisan support of a combined SCORE/SAFE that gets passed by both the House and Senate.