Well, I am of the assumption that since the team is a disorganized mess again that the odds of winning more than 1-2 games are slim.
But, for arguments sake, let's just say that the Iowa game was a one-off due to scheme the offense couldn't figure out. Let's say Toledo was such a ugly mess because all the new players had never played on the road before. And let's say they really start to turn a corner and improve. So essentially, they ARE headed in the right direction, they just didn't get there fast enough in September.
Well, if they managed to win 4 conference games, and be competitive in the losses (ie don't lose by 40 to OU, BU, TCU)... then I guess I could say it would make sense to retain CPR. I would be looking as much at quality of play as I would W/L. Sometimes a good team loses games, and sometimes a lousy team wins games.
I do not see this happening. To expect a change now is triumph of hope over experience. But I suppose anything is possible.