Top 32 teams in KenPom Adjusted Offensive AND Defensive Efficiency

[EarthIsMan]

Here are the teams ranked 32 or better in both KenPom adjusted offense and defense efficiency:

The top 32 was more or less an arbitrary chosen number, but I am figuring it is "half" of the NCAA tourney field (yes, I am not counting the first 4).

The greater point is it is promising to see Prohm improve on defense (even with spotty to non-existent post defenders). From 2012-2016 we were largely reliant on our prolific offense, and couldn't really depend on our defense to weather scoring droughts. This 2017 may be a little different....

Here are the KenPom rankings of NCAA Tourney winners since 2002:

*Keep in mind these are rankings at the end of the season. As one might expect the farther you advance in the tournament your ratings keeps improving since you are generally, progressively playing better teams.

Am I saying ISU is winning it all? Hell no. I am afraid we have too many deficiencies. But I hope this illustrates that if you want to advance deep into the tournament you 1) need some luck and 2) it would not hurt to have a KenPom top 40 offensive AND defensive team.

 

[Doc]

Our offensive efficiency is probably Top 10 over the last 10 games, quite possibly Top 5. It's jumped up from 45 to 27 in a few games, which is a big jump at this point in the season. The 3s and playing KSU without Johnson helped.

 

[megamanxzero35]

UCONN being the huge outliers. Known as the Kemba-Shabazz Effect.

 

[HFCS]

UCONN being the huge outliers. Known as the Kemba-Shabazz Effect.

They certainly weren't the 39th best offensive team at times during that run either.

 

[Cynonymous]

UCONN in '14 was closer to 99th off efficiency before conference tourneys if I remember correctly. The numbers can change wildly just from post season games so it's better to post the numbers at the end of the regular season for comparison imo.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Our offensive efficiency is probably Top 10 over the last 10 games, quite possibly Top 5. It's jumped up from 45 to 27 in a few games, which is a big jump at this point in the season. The 3s and playing KSU without Johnson helped.

KSU did have Johnson play, but it was very limited.

 

[CycloneWarning]

Great post. If he can recruit talent, I think Prohm's approach of emphasizing some defense can deliver us better conference and tourney results in the long term. Loved watching Hoiball, but it was not a system that would take us far. Too much dependency on outscoring our opponents. Defense can be there when offense is struggling.

 

[bluestarcyclone]

But I hope this illustrates that if you want to advance deep into the tournament you 1) need some luck

Good thing we have KP #274 in luck.

 

[State43]

I feel like with Young being able to get many rebounds we used to not get the first half of the season, it does bode well for us going forward. I just wish Bowie and Holden were a bit more useful.

 

[EarthIsMan]

UCONN in '14 was closer to 99th off efficiency before conference tourneys if I remember correctly. The numbers can change wildly just from post season games so it's better to post the numbers at the end of the regular season for comparison imo.

Yeah, before the NCAA tourney UConn had the #58 ranked adjusted offensive efficiency and #12 ranked adjusted defensive efficiency.

Favorable matchups, luck, and players/team peaking or getting hot can make any team go far.

 

[madguy30]

I feel like with Young being able to get many rebounds we used to not get the first half of the season, it does bode well for us going forward. I just wish Bowie and Holden were a bit more useful.

I'm hoping this changes if Young's development increases, which is possible within itself. Bowie's been serviceable in his role. Wish Holden added more because I think he's bought in.

Last season ISU seemed to be peaking about the last two weeks, so I'm hoping this little run is just the start of a trend to play even better and maybe make roles even more defined/productive.

 

[EarthIsMan]

Good thing we have KP #274 in luck.

I have often wondered how does one discern "luck" from being able to "superiorly finish close games".

For example Kansas gets a lot of love for being able to win a lot of close games and people attribute it to the team. They are also ranked #12 on luck. Luck presumably regresses to the mean. When does luck run out on a team like Kansas?

ISU had a pretty "lucky" team in 2014 with its ability to win close games and seemingly to never be out of any game when behind by large deficits.

Really since 2014 large defecits have never seemed too insurmountable. I think it is a mix of style of play, player confidence, and evidence to support (this year @Kansas and @Oklahoma come to mind).

 

[CycloneVet]

Yeah, before the NCAA tourney UConn had the #58 ranked adjusted offensive efficiency and #12 ranked adjusted defensive efficiency.

Favorable matchups, luck, and players/team peaking or getting hot can make any team go far.

Luck that year and not playing against Georges Niang look a lot alike

 

[Cynonymous]

Yeah, before the NCAA tourney UConn had the #58 ranked adjusted offensive efficiency and #12 ranked adjusted defensive efficiency.

Favorable matchups, luck, and players/team peaking or getting hot can make any team go far.

I have UConn at 99 and 11 before conference tourney. That means they improved their offensive rating by nearly half just during their conference tourney (3 games). 99->58->39 final

 

[DurangoCy]

UCONN being the huge outliers. Known as the Kemba-Shabazz Effect.

It's crazy that the next "worse" team to win a championship per KenPom was a 30-5 Syracuse team with Melo. How UConn did it once is amazing, twice lucky *******...

 

[HardcoreClone]

It's crazy that the next "worse" team to win a championship per KenPom was a 30-5 Syracuse team with Melo. How UConn did it once is amazing, twice lucky *******...

Yeah that UCONN team improved it's offensive numbers, but their identity was defense. They disrupted and shut down teams throughout their run.

 

[Pat]

I have often wondered how does one discern "luck" from being able to "superiorly finish close games".

For example Kansas gets a lot of love for being able to win a lot of close games and people attribute it to the team. They are also ranked #12 on luck. Luck presumably regresses to the mean. When does luck run out on a team like Kansas?

ISU had a pretty "lucky" team in 2014 with its ability to win close games and seemingly to never be out of any game when behind by large deficits.

Really since 2014 large defecits have never seemed too insurmountable. I think it is a mix of style of play, player confidence, and evidence to support (this year @Kansas and @Oklahoma come to mind).

From http://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-explanation/

The easiest one to understand is Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.​

This is different than having a lucky Ben McLemore banked 3, or having a deadly finisher like Kane, and it doesn't isolate end-of-game scenarios. It's more of a macro-level, "West Virginia banked in 3 contested 3's and over the course of the season, the record indicates a lot of bad bounces compared to expected outcomes."

So, we're #274 now, which *I* think indicates we're due for a regression to the mean in March. Fingers crossed.

 

[8bitnes]

Here are the teams ranked 32 or better in both KenPom adjusted offense and defense efficiency:
View attachment 46638
The top 32 was more or less an arbitrary chosen number, but I am figuring it is "half" of the NCAA tourney field (yes, I am not counting the first 4).

The greater point is it is promising to see Prohm improve on defense (even with spotty to non-existent post defenders). From 2012-2016 we were largely reliant on our prolific offense, and couldn't really depend on our defense to weather scoring droughts. This 2017 may be a little different....

Here are the KenPom rankings of NCAA Tourney winners since 2002:
View attachment 46639
*Keep in mind these are rankings at the end of the season. As one might expect the farther you advance in the tournament your ratings keeps improving since you are generally, progressively playing better teams.

Am I saying ISU is winning it all? Hell no. I am afraid we have too many deficiencies. But I hope this illustrates that if you want to advance deep into the tournament you 1) need some luck and 2) it would not hurt to have a KenPom top 40 offensive AND defensive team.

Great stuff there, but you could probably narrow down the top40 focus. 12 out of the 15 champions were top15 in both. Currently, only Gonzaga and Kentucky fit that metric.

 

[EarthIsMan]

Great stuff there, but you could probably narrow down the top40 focus. 12 out of the 15 champions were top15 in both. Currently, only Gonzaga and Kentucky fit that metric.

Agreed, but any ratings at this point in the season or pre-NCAA tourney inevitably improve. Any teams that advance progressively play better teams. So generally rankings improve much more dramatically during the tournament as opposed the any part of the regular season because this is a self-selecting group (you keep playing more difficult competition)

For fun, here is a comparison of the pre-tourney and final ratings of NCAA championship teams since 2002:

 

[Cynonymous]

It's too bad you can't pull numbers end of regular season as opposed to pre-tourney. As shown, even conference tourney games can move some stats around.