This is why Prohm must go........

[Sigmapolis]

This is his 5th season, he should have a veteran roster of his recruits. When will he acheive this veteran roster? Wont be next year, so when will it happen?

Prohm went all-in on maximizing the returns to the roster his first and second year. And that was the right play -- finding pieces to "win now" around Niang, Morris, Mitrou-Long, Thomas, Burton, Nader, and McKay was the right call them.

That just meant that we had marginal guys who could at least play an immediate role around, like Bowie and Holden, instead of young guards and big men to develop. Those guys would be upperclassmen now but, instead, they do not exist.

 

[Rise of the Clones]

Who recruited and coached up all that talent...? I forgot his name.

I would love to win a Big 12 regular season title. We have accomplished that exactly twice in school history, however. We still lionize those times, but that was almost two decades ago now. I do not know when that became the expectation. Our hope before the season last year was to make it back to the NCAA tournament, which we did. We let a good January go to our heads -- we kept hearing on the TV broadcasts that "Iowa State might have the most talent in the Big 12, and they are in the running for the regular season conference title." I am sure our brains added, "And be the ones to finally break the streak held by the hated Kansas Jayhawks." Man, I ******* hate those guys down in Lawrence!

Well, guess what. We let that go to our heads. We were talented, but I do not know how you could argue we were ultimately better or more talented than Texas Tech or Kansas State. Jarrett Culver, Matt Mooney, Dean Wade, and Barry Brown were bad dudes. We were certainly in the running for the Big 12 title, but our chance of winning the conference peaked around 40% on Bart Torvik. For comparison, Kansas has about a 55% chance of winning the conference right now, even before games have started.

We let a little success go to our heads and moved the goalposts way too far, and we are still killing a very good team that accomplished a lot (and its coach) because of it. I feel ashamed that some people attached a "wasn't good enough" stigma to great players like Marial Shayok and Lindell Wigginton. It was not like Monté Morris or Georges Niang really accomplished much they never did. Success in college basketball really comes down to three things, at least from what I have seen, long-term...

(1.) recruiting recruiting recruiting
(2.) staying old
(3.) the NCAA tournament is kind of random... see South Carolina and Loyola-Chicago in the Final Four... the key is to have as many bites as the apple as you can

Prohm is the best recruiter in school history. The five best recruits of the 247 era in school history are Brackins, Wigginton, Horton-Tucker, Thomas, and Foster. Prohm has landed 3/5 of them. Prohm has never had a veteran, experienced roster with long-term continuity across it of his own design. And he tends to make the NCAA tournament, which takes care of my third point. Missing the tournament this year would be very disappointing to me. Missing it the year after this one would be near-fatal to me. But that has not happened yet.

Prohm has been a great recruiter, but he can't people here. He's had 2 players he recruited go on the the NBA and 8 players transfer out. No wonder he's never had a veteran team, half of every recruiting class ends up leaving. Having 2 players transfer out before they've even played a game is very troublesome. I hope he can bring stability to the program and not relay on a miracle grad transfer every year.

 

[NoCreativity]

The 2019 team was the best of our 2011-2019 run according to the above. Both the 2019 and 2017 teams have higher ratings than the Fred teams.

Exactly why people are in a bad mood around here. 2019 was an absolute dumpster fire of a coaching job as far as Im concerned. Last year's roster was as good as its going to get with Prohm. You had Wigginton and Lard coming off the bench ffs, .500 last year and then losing to some scrub Big 10 team was completely unacceptable.

I keep trying to tell you guys that he has a track record now of getting less out of more talent, what do think is going to happen in the year's he has a less talented roster?

 

[Sigmapolis]

What I actually asked was what is prohm good at, and the typical answer is recruiting so I posted he has had a lot of busts as well. Thats all.

We answered --

Recruiting (of both freshmen and transfers). He has had his misses, but no worse than any other peer coach. You yourself have commented on the impressive set of talent he assembled in Ames for the 2018-2019 season.

Offense (see our efficiency numbers relative to Hoiberg, even this season).

Winning in Kansas City.

Not being a completely embarrassment to the university and the state.

 

[MJ271]

Exactly why people are in a bad mood around here. 2019 was an absolute dumpster fire of a coaching job as far as Im concerned. Last year's roster was as good as its going to get with Prohm. You had Wigginton and Lard coming off the bench ffs, .500 last year and then losing to some scrub Big 10 team was completely unacceptable.

I keep trying to tell you guys that he has a track record now of getting less out of more talent, what do think is going to happen in the year's he has a less talented roster?

Just saying, that scrub Big 10 team is currently ranked 5th in the country, with a lot of the same guys they had last year. They added a couple freshmen who are very good, but let's not pretend like they were absolutely awful. If you go from being a scrub to a top 5 team the next year, then you either had bad luck the prior year or you weren't actually a scrub.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Prohm has been a great recruiter, but he can't people here. He's had 2 players he recruited go on the the NBA and 8 players transfer out. No wonder he's never had a veteran team, half of every recruiting class ends up leaving. Having 2 players transfer out before they've even played a game is very troublesome. I hope he can bring stability to the program and not relay on a miracle grad transfer every year.

I do not get it -- so he gets faulted for both putting guys into the NBA and having scrubs transfer out? He's both too good at recruiting but not good enough?

We have this odd obsession as a fan-base about guys at the back of the bench. See the huge thread about Terrence Lewis, for instance. Seeing who guys leave who were not going to play (by all accounts) and having their scholarships immediately replaced with two incoming recruits with brighter futures is a good thing, not a bad mark.

Exactly why people are in a bad mood around here. 2019 was an absolute dumpster fire of a coaching job as far as Im concerned. Last year's roster was as good as its going to get with Prohm. You had Wigginton and Lard coming off the bench ffs, .500 last year and then losing to some scrub Big 10 team was completely unacceptable.

I keep trying to tell you guys that he has a track record now of getting less out of more talent, what do think is going to happen in the year's he has a less talented roster?

That "scrub" Big Ten team is now #2 on Bart Torvik.

Their rotation last year...



Their rotation this year...



Basically the same guys plus D.J. Carton and C.J. Walker, no?

I think this year is providing ample evidence that Ohio State team better than we thought. We assumed we would roll them as a #12 seed. Well, much of the same roster -- and especially Kaleb Wesson, who murdered us on the block -- is now on its way to a Big Ten championship and a #1 seed if the NCAA tournament was to start today.

 

[NoCreativity]

Just saying, that scrub Big 10 team is currently ranked 5th in the country, with a lot of the same guys they had last year. They added a couple freshmen who are very good, but let's not pretend like they were absolutely awful. If you go from being a scrub to a top 5 team the next year, then you either had bad luck the prior year or you weren't actually a scrub.

Lol, this is a new season. Last year I watched Louisville get manhandled in person by Minnesota in the tourney, 8 months later they are ranked #1. Ohio State was terrible last year, normally Big 10 teams dont get #11 seeds unless you are really bad.

 

[CYdTracked]

Prohm has been a great recruiter, but he can't people here. He's had 2 players he recruited go on the the NBA and 8 players transfer out. No wonder he's never had a veteran team, half of every recruiting class ends up leaving. Having 2 players transfer out before they've even played a game is very troublesome. I hope he can bring stability to the program and not relay on a miracle grad transfer every year.

Tell me where those 2 guys would be in the rotation this season? Not bothered by those 2 transferring out, they were projects at best that weren't going to play and now there are scholarships available to bring in someone who might contribute sooner.

 

[Rise of the Clones]

I do not get it -- so he gets faulted for both putting guys into the NBA and having scrubs transfer out? He's both too good at recruiting but not good enough?

We have this odd obsession as a fan-base about guys at the back of the bench. See the huge thread about Terrence Lewis, for instance. Seeing who guys leave who were not going to play (by all accounts) and having their scholarships immediately replaced with two incoming recruits with brighter futures is a good thing, not a bad mark.



That "scrub" Big Ten team is now #2 on Bart Torvik.

Their rotation last year...

View attachment 69276

Their rotation this year...

View attachment 69277

Basically the same guys plus D.J. Carton and C.J. Walker, no?

I think this year is providing ample evidence that Ohio State team better than we thought. We assumed we would roll them as a #12 seed. Well, much of the same roster -- and especially Kaleb Wesson, who murdered us on the block -- is now on its way to a Big Ten championship and a #1 seed if the NCAA tournament was to start today.

I wouldn't consider Leach and Anderson "scrubs" because they never even played. I really hope next years in-coming freshman are ready right away because the roster doesn't look great if Haliburton leaves.

 

[jpete24]

I was on here bagging on Prohm back in 20's or 30's somewhere, but I think my take still holds true after almost a week to stew on it;

• Prohm is a good recruiter or at least he knows how to use his advantages (good crowds for Iowa State basketball, being in the B12, have sent previous players to NBA) when in the recruiting process ~ could another coach do this better? Maybe, but probably very debatable.
• Prohm is a good person/has a good personality as a coach. I think people like to play for him because he isn't screaming at the guys (Fran) or totally their buddy either. I think he could do a better job being too lax sometimes with the guys, but also debatable. Could somebody do this better? Eh, I don't know.
• Prohm in-game coaching decisions are not great. I don't even think this is a debate. He absolutely needs to do better with his in-game decision making, or more so, making adjustments mid-game. I also think he puts too much emphasis on the junior/seniors starting for too long, and needs to make adjustments quicker on this. Could another coach do this better? Absolutely.
• Prohm also lost a big piece in THT. If he stayed for another year, he would probably be the answer we are searching for this year. You can't really fault Prohm though for that kid wanting to go NBA early, at the end of the day, you have to live with it

I think his talents outweigh his flaws. All the flaws he's shown can be improved and he can make those changes, whether its a change to assistant coaches or changes within him, he can make better game-time decisions.

 

[Rise of the Clones]

Tell me where those 2 guys would be in the rotation this season? Not bothered by those 2 transferring out, they were projects at best that weren't going to play and now there are scholarships available to bring in someone who might contribute sooner.

Interesting, I remember both players getting a decent amount of hype before they got here. No they would have been in the rotation, Prohm only likes to play 7-8 guys for some reason. They could have used a year or two to develop. I guess the era of players like Naz Long are over, if players aren't getting PT right away they transfer.

 

[MJ271]

Lol, this is a new season. Last year I watched Louisville get manhandled in person by Minnesota in the tourney, 8 months later they are ranked #1. Ohio State was terrible last year, normally Big 10 teams dont get #11 seeds unless you are really bad.

I'm not trying to say that last season they were actually a great team. But for them to be this good, that means they have talent. Since the rotation is mostly the same, that means they also had talent last season. Sometimes young, talented rosters are pretty inconsistent. The highs are high, but the lows are low. (Hmmm, this sounds like another team from last season who played in the 6-11 game in Midwest region in the 2019 NCAA tournament)

 

[NoCreativity]

I do not get it -- so he gets faulted for both putting guys into the NBA and having scrubs transfer out? He's both too good at recruiting but not good enough?

We have this odd obsession as a fan-base about guys at the back of the bench. See the huge thread about Terrence Lewis, for instance. Seeing who guys leave who were not going to play (by all accounts) and having their scholarships immediately replaced with two incoming recruits with brighter futures is a good thing, not a bad mark.



That "scrub" Big Ten team is now #2 on Bart Torvik.

Their rotation last year...

View attachment 69276

Their rotation this year...

View attachment 69277

Basically the same guys plus D.J. Carton and C.J. Walker, no?

I think this year is providing ample evidence that Ohio State team better than we thought. We assumed we would roll them as a #12 seed. Well, much of the same roster -- and especially Kaleb Wesson, who murdered us on the block -- is now on its way to a Big Ten championship and a #1 seed if the NCAA tournament was to start today.

You can't be serious? They were an entire 4 games under .500 in the Big 10, only one of those 8 conference wins was against a team that made the NCAA tourney, finished with 14 losses. Not only that but go look at the history of the NCAA tourney, how many Big 10 teams get 11 seeds?

This has to be a new milestone for this board, now all of a sudden the same conference people make fun of or call horrible is all of sudden good when one of their 14 loss teams beats Iowa State.

This is really comical that you guys are defending last years Ohio State team as being good. Its downright embarrassing actually. I watched alot of Big 10 games last year and they were a really bad basketball team. They lost 6 out of 7 at one point, then late in the year lost 4 out of 5 to end the regular season.

Big 10 championship? Its not even Christmas yet, lets pump the brakes on declaring Ohio State a 1 seed. They just lost to a 4-5 Minnesota team, they could just as easily go 12-8 as they can win the conference. This early season Big 10 schedule has proven anyone can beat anyone on a nightly basis and road wins are going to be scarce.

 

[rochclone]

I would be concerned if he missed the NCAA tournament this year.

I would probably be in the "time to make a change" camp if next year, too.

Not going to get ahead of myself, though -- that would be 18 months from now.



Wigginton -- I was on the record here that Wigginton should have been starting over THT at the end of last season. However, Wigginton played 477 minutes in the Big 12 last year, and THT played 461. I subjectively remember Wigginton being the one in the game at the end far more often, too. The idea that Prohm "took him out of the lineup" when he was fourth in minutes in the Big 12 is absurd. If that is how you remember it, then look at the seasonal box score. What a fatuous point to say Wigginton was benched somehow.

Shayok was up there with Royce White and DeAndre Kane as one of our best transfers of all-time. Odd that you left him out going through your list.

Jacobson is a solid guy -- limited in ways, but he can be very good.

What does Prohm do well...?

View attachment 69273

The 2019 team was the best of our 2011-2019 run according to the above. Both the 2019 and 2017 teams have higher ratings than the Fred teams.

Prohm maintained or even improved the level of offensive efficiency from the Hoiberg era and kept/improved on the defensive efficiencies, as well.

I know you are going to say back that, "If they were so good, why didn't they win?" My response is (1.) yes, they did, just not as much at Hilton and (2.) wins and losses, a simple binary like that, are actually a relatively poor estimate of the quality of a team and a poor predictor of its future success compared to a more nuanced approach using point differentials. You should account for those. And (3.) our strength of schedule under the Prohm era is slightly higher than it was in the Hoiberg era...

View attachment 69274

...so you should make some reasonable adjustment for that.

Winning 23 in 2018 was harder than winning 23 in 2012.

In essence, the Hoiberg era was "luckier" -- they won a lot of close games. History says that teams tend to regress to the mean of 50-50 on close games, that being "clutch" is mostly a myth. The Prohm teams were not as lucky, and especially the 2016 team losing a ton of close Big 12 games. The 2019 team suffered slightly from that.

The guy has proven that he can do it -- he won the Big 12 tournament with a team consisting entirely of his guys. Not many high-major coaches have won their conference tournament, much less twice (even if the first was mostly Hoiberg recruits, though important rotation guys on that team like Jackson, NWB, Bowie, and Young were recruited by Prohm to supplement the upperclassmen). He just has not gotten on the lucky run in March to quiet the natives, and losing Wigginton and/or Horton-Tucker, who would have been the centerpiece of the offense and the star this season, really hurt and screwed up the plan.

I am sure he planned on having at least one of them, and Bolton is just not an adequate replacement for either of them right now.

This...

Haliburton
Bolton
Nixon
Horton-Tucker
Conditt

...would be fun.

Good post but I’m critical of the former coach being “luckier.” I’m assuming that you are talking about five point or less/OT wins versus losses. The assumption being that the “bounces” even out over time. But that isn’t the case when you look at how Prohm fares in those games versus Huggins, Kruger, Self, Drew, etc. Great coaches effect winning in close contests. I think there is still work to be done by CSP in either getting better in late-game (last five minute) situations or making asst coaching hires that accomplish this.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Lol, this is a new season. Last year I watched Louisville get manhandled in person by Minnesota in the tourney, 8 months later they are ranked #1. Ohio State was terrible last year, normally Big 10 teams dont get #11 seeds unless you are really bad.

The BT game scores for Ohio State last year...



They were inconsistent as heck, but they could be very good when they were going. We unfortunately ran into "good" Ohio State in Tulsa.

This year, they are basically "good" Ohio State all of the time with the same core and mostly the same starters. As mentioned by @MJ271, they added a few young guards but it is mostly the same roster. Wesson is playing like he did against us all the time now. The team we met in Tulsa had a much higher ceiling than their #11 seed indicated, and we got a taste of that. The whole of college basketball is getting a meal of that.

I am not saying that loss is not still disappointing -- but it has aged well. You know what loss looks worse and worse every time I look at it...? UAB. What a trash team.

I wouldn't consider Leach and Anderson "scrubs" because they never even played. I really hope next years in-coming freshman are ready right away because the roster doesn't look great if Haliburton leaves.

The DMR ran an article before the season that neither Leech or Anderson was expected to play in anything more than mop-up duty. The insiders on here have repeated the same story that they were not any good and were not going to play.

They would have been scrubs. Period. If I drop a baseball, it falls to the ground.

I think that helping guys who do not have a reasonable chance to contribute at a Big 12 school onto a better fit for them, and therefore clearing space on the roster for other players, is good program management on Prohm's part.

Everybody does that. Replacing Anderson and Leech with some combination of Blackwell, Walker, Dubar, and Foster is an upgrade, not a problem.

I do generally share your concern for next year, though. We are going to lose Haliburton, Nixon, and Jacobson. A few guys on the current team and at least a few of the freshmen are going to need to step it up or even become stars if we are to become successful. It might not happen, yes, but I am going to withhold judgement until I see it.

You certainly see flashes of it from Bolton and Conditt.

 

[jpete24]

Good post but I’m critical of the former coach being “luckier.” I’m assuming that you are talking about five point or less/OT wins versus losses. The assumption being that the “bounces” even out over time. But that isn’t the case when you look at how Prohm fares in those games versus Huggins, Kruger, Self, Drew, etc. Great coaches effect winning in close contests. I think there is still work to be done by CSP in either getting better in late-game (last five minute) situations or making asst coaching hires that accomplish this.

This 100%.

 

[NoCreativity]

I'm not trying to say that last season they were actually a great team. But for them to be this good, that means they have talent. Since the rotation is mostly the same, that means they also had talent last season. Sometimes young, talented rosters are pretty inconsistent. The highs are high, but the lows are low. (Hmmm, this sounds like another team from last season who played in the 6-11 game in Midwest region in the 2019 NCAA tournament)

That team wasnt that young. Shayok and Jacobson had multiple ACC and Big 10 season experience, NWB was a 5th year player who had mulitple Big 12 seasons under his belt, Lard, Talley, and Wigginton played heavy minutes in the Big 12 the year before so had plenty of experience.

THT and Tyrese were the only ones last year that didnt have significant playing time under their belts in the 3 toughest conferences in college basketball.

 

[NoCreativity]

The BT game scores for Ohio State last year...

View attachment 69278

They were inconsistent as heck, but they could be very good when they were going. We unfortunately ran into "good" Ohio State in Tulsa.

This year, they are basically "good" Ohio State all of the time with the same core and mostly the same starters. As mentioned by @MJ271, they added a few young guards but it is mostly the same roster. Wesson is playing like he did against us all the time now. The team we met in Tulsa had a much higher ceiling than their #11 seed indicated, and we got a taste of that. The whole of college basketball is getting a meal of that.

I am not saying that loss is not still disappointing -- but it has aged well. You know what loss looks worse and worse every time I look at it...? UAB. What a trash team.



The DMR ran an article before the season that neither Leech or Anderson was expected to play in anything more than mop-up duty. The insiders on here have repeated the same story that they were not any good and were not going to play.

They would have been scrubs. Period. If I drop a baseball, it falls to the ground.

I think that helping guys who do not have a reasonable chance to contribute at a Big 12 school onto a better fit for them, and therefore clearing space on the roster for other players, is good program management on Prohm's part.

Everybody does that. Replacing Anderson and Leech with some combination of Blackwell, Walker, Dubar, and Foster is an upgrade, not a problem.

I do generally share your concern for next year, though. We are going to lose Haliburton, Nixon, and Jacobson. A few guys on the current team and at least a few of the freshmen are going to need to step it up or even become stars if we are to become successful. It might not happen, yes, but I am going to withhold judgement until I see it.

You certainly see flashes of it from Bolton and Conditt.

Ohio State sucked last year, end of story, I cant even believe we are having this discussion and that Cyclone fans of all people are sticking up for some dumpster fire Big 10 team from a year ago.

 

[Sigmapolis]

This has to be a new milestone for this board, now all of a sudden the same conference people make fun of or call horrible is all of sudden good when one of their 14 loss teams beats Iowa State.

I know making fun of the Big Ten (in all sports) and Iowa in particular is just part of the culture on here, but sometimes poking fun at them is unwarranted.



The Big Ten was the best conference in the country last year based on SRS.

The Big 12 had two teams under a 13 on SRS -- Oky State and WVU.

The Big Ten had five of them -- Minnesota, Penn State, NW, UIUC, and Buttgers.

So they did that with way more scrubs at the bottom of their conference than we did. The Cyclone in me hates to say it, but the Big Ten was not bad last year in basketball. Far from it -- it was one of if not the best conference in the sport.

 

[jpete24]

I know making fun of the Big Ten (in all sports) and Iowa in particular is just part of the culture on here, but sometimes poking fun at them is unwarranted.

View attachment 69280

The Big Ten was the best conference in the country last year based on SRS.

The Big 12 had two teams under a 13 on SRS -- Oky State and WVU.

The Big Ten had five of them -- Minnesota, Penn State, NW, UIUC, and Buttgers.

So they did that with way more scrubs at the bottom of their conference than we did. The Cyclone in me hates to say it, but the Big Ten was not bad last year in basketball. Far from it -- it was one of if not the best conference in the sport.

I was told that the ACC was always the best conference, regardless of statistics.