The one thing I have noticed too is when an old school player gets voted out they usually are gifting their fire tokens or advantages they win on extinction to another old school player they have some kind of prior relationship with. To me that kind of shows you where their alliances might fall once they merge which has to be coming up really soon if not next week with 12 people left. They have mentioned several times including last night at 1 tribal this seems to be a season about pre-existing relationships both in and outside of the game.