They got the money to do it. What they don't have is access to premium regular season inventory and access to CFP rights due to the ESPN/Fox stranglehold on rights. Apple and YT, along with Amazon, need access to both to get top dollar from any of them.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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There’s a lot more money than you think. The US Premier league rights went for 2.2B to NBC/Peacock and they get half the rating B12 basketball gets. It’s all about how much inventory you sell to them.
I’ve never seen basketball ratings but the huge part of premier league is that if you are a fan you are signing up for 10 months of peacock and have a ton of growth potential that college basketball doesn’t have.
367mil per year is honestly a steal for premier league with those things on the table. Premier league fans in the US are also used to having to pay or jump through hoops to watch the games which is a bit different then college sports
The amount of inventory they have is also almost triple what the Big 12 has right now. PL has 380 games and the Big 12 basketball can sell 140 conf games.
Realignment could get things closer in total/ quality games if the Big 12 can build a basketball super conference.
Randomly came across this SI article from summer 1990. Really interesting and prophetic read about realignment thoughts 35 years ago.
KICKING OFF TO CHAOS
It is New Year's Day 1998. You're comfortably settled into your favorite beanbag chair (they're back in vogue). Time to take in a little football. You clickvault.si.com
Fascinating how much of it has come to pass, not every detail, but nearly all the general predictions unfolded eventually.
A few in summary fashion.
Most, if not all, of the superconferences will get rich. Some traditional conferences will merge, shrink or eventually become defunct. Some bowls (Rose and Sugar, most likely) will prosper, and some (probably Cotton and Orange) will go into decline. And the inevitable arrival of a national-championship playoff game will be hastened.
--> The Cotton/Orange decline hasn't occurred, but it might be more a matter of # of bowls in '90 vs. currently. "All superconferences" getting rich is at least half-correct.
Division I-A football could be transformed by quicky divorces and hastily arranged marriages. The day after Arkansas raised the possibility that it may not be a member of the Southwest Conference much longer, that conference's executive committee met to map out contingency plans. Foremost among them: a merger with the Big Eight. Of course, by the time that union could be arranged, Colorado might have bolted to the Pac-10. The Pac-10, or Packed Tent, as it may come to be known, has been rumored to be interested in at least three teams besides Colorado (chart).
Parts of these two happened at least in part as a "combo" projection (although timeline of movement probably was impossible to foresee).
* What's next, an alliance of Atlantic powers from Miami to Boston? Well, there is an Eastern Seaboard League (ESL) under discussion that would include Boston College, the ever-present Miami and eight other independents if—a big if—it sees the light of day.
* Not to be oudone the Big East, which now sponsors no competition in football, has been involved in low-level negotiations with the ACC. The Big East would like to know if its three members that play Division I-A football as independents, BC, Syracuse and Pitt, could join the ACC for that sport while remaining in the Big East for basketball.
Division I-A football could be transformed by quicky divorces and hastily arranged marriages. The day after Arkansas raised the possibility that it may not be a member of the Southwest Conference much longer, that conference's executive committee met to map out contingency plans—foremost among them a merger with the Big Eight. Of course, by the time that union could be arranged, Colorado might have bolted to the Pac-10. The Pac-10—or Packed Tent, as it may come to be known—has been rumored to be interested in at least three teams besides Colorado (chart).
A combination of these transpired.
What's next, an alliance of Atlantic powers from Miami to Boston? Well, as a matter of fact, there is an Eastern Seaboard League (ESL) under discussion that would include Boston College, the ever-present Miami and eight other independents if—a big if—it sees the light of day.
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Not to be outdone, the Big East, which now sponsors no competition in football, has been involved in low-level negotiations with the ACC. The Big East would like to know if its three members that play Division I-A football as independents, BC, Syracuse and Pitt, could join the ACC for that sport while remaining in the Big East for basketball.
One of my biggest "what if" moments in conference realignment history comes from the 30 for 30 about the Big East.
What if just 1 more admin had voted yes on Penn State in the early 80s?
That’s a really interesting article. As someone that was completely shocked when the BigTen added Rutgers, I would have never guessed there was ever a rumor they would be a Big10 target back in 1990.Randomly came across this SI article from summer 1990. Really interesting and prophetic read about realignment thoughts 35 years ago.
KICKING OFF TO CHAOS
It is New Year's Day 1998. You're comfortably settled into your favorite beanbag chair (they're back in vogue). Time to take in a little football. You click
Also, although it sounds like it wasn’t the focus back then that it later came to be, it’s interesting how the article speculates about what percentage of American TV sets could be contained in a super conference footprint.
The part I wasn’t surprised to read was that Texas made fellow conference members nervous back then. Although the article pointed out that the spark that started the SWC demise was really Arkansas leaving.
All-in-all the article got about as much right as you could expect when making predictions back in 1990 when realignment was just getting started.
And what the article didn’t know at the time was that Texas was the one who told Arkansas to leave.
The Big East was always going to be limited because it was a basketball conference first and foremost. As more football schools entered the conference, football and the money that it could bring in, reshaped not only the conference but the entire country. Leaving the original bb schools behind and trying to catchup even today.
SMU's death penalty has been cited as the excuse that Arkansas needed to get out, and ammo for UT/A&M to keep looking elsewhere.
That was a helluva read and notable was the omission of all Big 8 schools (except CU) from the projected mega-conferences. Also notable was the power that the bowl games held back then which obviously stalled any semi-rational playoff plans until the current 12-team CFP and even that has its obvious flaws.Randomly came across this SI article from summer 1990. Really interesting and prophetic read about realignment thoughts 35 years ago.
KICKING OFF TO CHAOS
It is New Year's Day 1998. You're comfortably settled into your favorite beanbag chair (they're back in vogue). Time to take in a little football. You click
One thing not mentioned was SEC Commish Roy Kramer being hell bent on having a SEC CCG and the early ratings success with it which triggered copycat expansion and CCGs.
And obviously this article pre-dated conference networks and the profound impact those networks and the pursuit of cable subs had an realignment which in turn created the extreme negative influence that Fox and ESPN currently have on the sport.
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Yeah, the article mostly covered the East Coast schools and the instability in the SWC, which I guess makes sense given lots of those East Coast schools did eventually change conferences and the SWC did blow up not long after the article.
Other than that, the Big 8 and Big10 weren’t mentioned much. The author noted that the SWC might look to merge with the Big8, and that Colorado might end up with the west coast schools, but that’s about it.
I didn’t listen to this, but apparently the Maryland AD said he expects they’ll be at 20 by 2030.
t.co
Big Ten At 20 Schools In 2030 Per Maryland Athletic Director. Larger Than 16 Team Playoffs In Play.
Discussing Week One Games. https://247sports.com/college/maryland/article/former-maryland-football-five-star-recruit-learns-nfl-roster-fate-252940364/?minute...
t.co
I didn’t listen to this, but apparently the Maryland AD said he expects they’ll be at 20 by 2030.
Big Ten At 20 Schools In 2030 Per Maryland Athletic Director. Larger Than 16 Team Playoffs In Play.
Discussing Week One Games. https://247sports.com/college/maryland/article/former-maryland-football-five-star-recruit-learns-nfl-roster-fate-252940364/?minute...
I think most expect that
I agree on the Big 10 to 20. I am still not sure who the 2 will be. You would think either FSU or Miami to get into Florida. FSU has been more vocal on getting out, Miami is AAU. Though not AAU, my guess is FSU because I bet they have had a handshake deal with the Big 10 from the start.
Virginia and North Carolina fit the Big 10 better. Virginia is below average in football though. NC is trending SEC and state politics with NC State could an anchor. Clemson is not AAU, decent but not Big 10 academics, and just not a large market. I don't think Clemson gets picked up by the SEC either. I am going with the wildcard in Georgia Tech for the Atlanta market for tv, recruiting area, is AAU, and a bridge to FSU.
Virginia and North Carolina fit the Big 10 better. Virginia is below average in football though. NC is trending SEC and state politics with NC State could an anchor. Clemson is not AAU, decent but not Big 10 academics, and just not a large market. I don't think Clemson gets picked up by the SEC either. I am going with the wildcard in Georgia Tech for the Atlanta market for tv, recruiting area, is AAU, and a bridge to FSU.
Its been said that FSU is working on getting AAU, and if it comes down to it, the B10 would make it happen. But I am not sure it is an end all be all, after Nebby being booted.
To me NC and UVA are the best fits for the B10, and I doubt the NC govt will really have any power to actually stop anything, as many other similar situations have all turned into nothing burgers. They talk tough and in the end they are paper tigers, and can do nothing to stop it in reality. That being said, they also have reasons they would fit in the SEC too.
The biggest issue is the values have gotten so high in the B1G and SEC that finding any schools that are that valuable is almost impossible.
Im sure there will be some surprises when it does happen, as usual.
Right now it's Virginia or Duke (whichever one doesn't go with NC to the SEC) and Miami or GT. Outside shot for Stanford. Michigan/Wisconsin voting block wanted them last time over Oregon to pair with Washington but the OhioSt/PennSt voting block won out.
Id guess right now its Virginia/GT to the B10 and FSU/Clemson,NC/Duke to SEC
Unless you have seen something that I have not…why in the world would be down to a combination of Virgina/Duke/GT?
I think state governments have power if the school in question is the key to the move. For example, UCLA giving concessions to Cal for their Big10 move. But in the end, USC leaving set the ball in motion. Nothing Washington or Oregon could have done to stop it.
NC and VA aren’t big enough that them saying no keeps the ACC afloat. If they say no, the Big10 moves on to the next in their list and those schools get left behind. So I don’t think the state will be able to do much. It does help that NCSU and Va Tech probably have landing spots. For the ACC, it seems most of the schools that are screwed are private.
Personal opinion, politics involved, and reading between of lines of what I've heard from people I believe to be in the know.
Don't believe B10 will have first choice and if the SEC wants to add 2 I think two more shortly follow.
Academics and state populations/future potential students will absolutely matter for the B10. Where as the SEC is more brands and state populations/future potential students.
North Carolina has first choice and Im believe right now they prefer the SEC
I think the Florida board rejecting President Ono from getting the Florida job will prevent Florida St from getting an offer. Somewhat affect Miami but they still have a shot.
Don't see anyway Clemson goes B10.
That leaves Virginia vs Duke and what the SEC prefers to have new state to pull from or brand value.
