Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[1UNI2ISU]

Even if they 'can' get out in 2031 for a fee it doesn't mean that 1) the fee still isn't prohibitive and 2) that they have another league to go to. If I were the Big 12, I'd be awfully careful about adding anybody else with the next TV deal, there's something to be said for having 16 members on the same page with realistic goals. Bringing in a Clemson or a Florida State has the potential to screw up that balance pretty quickly.

I don't think people understand how high the bar is now to be additive to the Big Ten or SEC. They both hit grand slams in the last cycle and they aren't going to settle for a single just because it's available.

 

[Al_4_State]

@FinalFourCy Is obviously an Iowa fan rooting for Big 12 demise

 

[jcyclonee]

Who are the second class ACC citizens who will be paying the protection money to hold that conference together?

Recent history suggests that the teams asking for uneven distribution will never be satisfied with the amount and ultimately will stab the have-nots in the back on the way out the door anyway.

That's what I'm getting at. With uneven distribution, the schools at the bottom of the ACC will need to take really small amounts. this could cause Cal and Stanford to go back to the new PAC.

Even the schools in the middle will probably have to take a cut. With this being the case, I can certainly see NCSU, Virginia Tech, Pitt and Louisville looking at the BIG12.

 

[Kinch]

That's what I'm getting at. With uneven distribution, the schools at the bottom of the ACC will need to take really small amounts. this could cause Cal and Stanford to go back to the new PAC.

Even the schools in the middle will probably have to take a cut. With this being the case, I can certainly see NCSU, Virginia Tech, Pitt and Louisville looking at the BIG12.

Stanford has a multi billion dollar endowment. Doubt if they will hurt too much.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Who are the second class ACC citizens who will be paying the protection money to hold that conference together?

Recent history suggests that the teams asking for uneven distribution will never be satisfied with the amount and ultimately will stab the have-nots in the back on the way out the door anyway.

Agree that it won’t pacify anyone able to get to P2

But “settling” on the GOR and/or top ACC going to SEC is absolutely what they should be doing

Or at least the peasant class.

Getting ESPN to build the ACC as the “3” in P3 in exchange taking less now and helping espn move schools to SEC would be a great deal for the BC types. They must “sell” their current leverage from the GOR, to get a tenable post-GOR future, as soon as possible.

It’s the Louisville, VT, NC St types that I question. They likely believe they are a lock to be in whatever is the 3rd conference when the P2 expand or an investor creates a best of the rest. They have less incentive to give up current value in exchange for a post-GOR benefit

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Agree that it won’t pacify anyone able to get to P2

But “settling” on the GOR and/or top ACC going to SEC is absolutely what they should be doing

Or at least the peasant class.

Getting ESPN to build the ACC as the “3” in P3 in exchange taking less now and helping espn move schools to SEC would be a great deal for the BC types. They must use the GOR to get a tenable post-GOR future, as soon as possible.

It’s the Louisville, VT, NC St types that I question. They likely believe they are a lock to be in whatever is the 3rd conference when the P2 expand or an investor creates a best of the rest. They have less incentive to give up current value in exchange for a post-GOR benefit

That implies that the SEC is going to want any of them. I think that's an awful high bar to clear at this point.

The Big Ten and SEC appear to be pretty content with where they're at and, outside of Notre Dame, I don't see how any add isn't dilutive.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

That's what I'm getting at. With uneven distribution, the schools at the bottom of the ACC will need to take really small amounts. this could cause Cal and Stanford to go back to the new PAC.

Even the schools in the middle will probably have to take a cut. With this being the case, I can certainly see NCSU, Virginia Tech, Pitt and Louisville looking at the BIG12.

Agree with a lot of this, will have to see the actual deal that’s reached on the revenue sharing part. Only school that’s dealing from a position of (short term) strength here is UNC football weirdly enough. Mainly due to getting the Deion treatment with Belichick

 

[2speedy1]

Why do people believe this guy knows more than MhVer etc.

He doesnt even have 5K subs on YT.

I didnt even know who he was not that long ago, until people on here kept quoting him, I looked him up.

Hes just another idiot with a YT channel that claims to know more than he does, like all the WV People on YT and Kurtz etc.

Hell even Kurtz has direct ties to KSU, this guy doesnt even have that.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Why do people believe this guy knows more than MhVer etc.

He doesnt even have 5K subs on YT.

I didnt even know who he was not that long ago, until people on here kept quoting him, I looked him up.

Hes just another idiot with a YT channel that claims to know more than he does, like all the WV People on YT and Kurtz etc.

Do you feel better now?

I’m not sure how, but he’s consistently had good intel.

 

[isucy86]

Even if they 'can' get out in 2031 for a fee it doesn't mean that 1) the fee still isn't prohibitive and 2) that they have another league to go to. If I were the Big 12, I'd be awfully careful about adding anybody else with the next TV deal, there's something to be said for having 16 members on the same page with realistic goals. Bringing in a Clemson or a Florida State has the potential to screw up that balance pretty quickly.

I don't think people understand how high the bar is now to be additive to the Big Ten or SEC. They both hit grand slams in the last cycle and they aren't going to settle for a single just because it's available.

IMO future realignment will be contingent on the value of the Big10's next TV deal. If it's a big bump (40%+) over the current 7 year $7B deal then the Big10 (and then SEC) can stretch on schools they add. Part of that bump will be desire by entities like Amazon, Netflix, Apple, etc. to pay premium dollars for inventory that meets their needs.

And obviously if the Big10 could add a Notre Dame (a top 5 Brand), they could be pared with a lessor brand like Virginia and still be accretive for the other 18 schools.

 

[2speedy1]

Stanford has a multi billion dollar endowment. Doubt if they will hurt too much.

How much of that goes to the AD though?

I dont know how Stanford does it, but I am pretty sure most cases that endowment is not for Athletics.

 

[jcyclonee]

Stanford has a multi billion dollar endowment. Doubt if they will hurt too much.

They may decide that they don't want to deal with the travel. The rules of use for endowments are usually pretty strict. What matters is the funding for their athletic department.

They have plenty of super wealthy donors but the questions is how much are these donors willing to fork up just to stay in the ACC? They may decide that it's worth it to stay with Virginia, UNC, Georgia Tech... for the academics but Stanford is one of the few power conference athletic programs that actually might put academics first.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

IMO future realignment will be contingent on the value of the Big10's next TV deal. If it's a big bump (40%+) over the current 7 year $7B deal then the Big10 (and then SEC) can stretch on schools they add. Part of that bump will be desire by entities like Amazon, Netflix, Apple, etc. to pay premium dollars for inventory that meets their needs.

And obviously if the Big10 could add a Notre Dame (a top 5 Brand), they could be pared with a lessor brand like Virginia and still be accretive for the other 18 schools.

But why would they stretch if the networks are willing to give them 40% more for what they already have?

If somebody hands me $10B, I'm not going to run around looking to add extra ways to spend it when I could keep a larger portion for myself.

 

[FinalFourCy]

That implies that the SEC is going to want any of them. I think that's an awful high bar to clear at this point.

The Big Ten and SEC appear to be pretty content with where they're at and, outside of Notre Dame, I don't see how any add isn't dilutive.

This is the type of analysis that had people claiming that Oregon and UW were stuck in PAC or Big 12.

The SEC wants, at the very least, UNC.

The fact there are negotiations going on , and lower schools are giving up revenue, should tell you they believe there to be a threat of ACC collapse

This era isn’t as much about tv valuations as previous. It’s about being able to rewrite how college athletics are monetized

Marginalizing the ACC means more revenue for P2 in CFP and new CBB postseason

 

[FriendlySpartan]

This is the type of analysis that had people claiming that Oregon and UW were stuck in PAC or Big 12.

The SEC wants, at the very least, UNC.

The fact there are negotiations going on , and lower schools are giving up revenue, should tell you they believe there to be a threat of ACC collapse

Well they were stuck until they agreed to take the same price to going the big ten.

Warren also did not do a good job explaining the media deal and has a lot of AD’s and admins pissed so that might also effect things going forward

 

[1UNI2ISU]

This is the type of analysis that had people claiming that Oregon and UW were stuck in PAC or Big 12.

The SEC wants, at the very least, UNC.

The fact there are negotiations going on , and lower schools are giving up revenue, should tell you they believe there to be a threat of ACC collapse

They WERE stuck until the price got to a point where everybody else in the Big Ten could make some extra money.

Only the remaining Big 12 schools decided to take a haircut to save the 4PAC, never would have happened in the Big Ten or SEC.

 

[CascadeClone]

Seems like all the ranting and raving and lawsuits by FSU (and to a lesser extent Clemson) has resulted in giving them a better negotiating position, which they have now capitalized on.

We don't know the details but they get more money, and probably a "get out of jail free-ish" card in case they get picked up by the P2.

So the ranting and raving worked, for now. It all sounds very Texas-esque.

 

[Gonzo]

Stanford has a multi billion dollar endowment. Doubt if they will hurt too much.

They likely can't touch much if any of that endowment though. It's not how it works.

 

[Kinch]

They likely can't touch much if any of that endowment though. It's not how it works.

According to stanfords endowment, the endowment supports athletics, including day to day operations.

 

[Kinch]

They may decide that they don't want to deal with the travel. The rules of use for endowments are usually pretty strict. What matters is the funding for their athletic department.

They have plenty of super wealthy donors but the questions is how much are these donors willing to fork up just to stay in the ACC? They may decide that it's worth it to stay with Virginia, UNC, Georgia Tech... for the academics but Stanford is one of the few power conference athletic programs that actually might put academics first.

The endowment already endows positions in the athletic department.