Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[simply1]

Probably been discussed, but if the Pac still needs 2 more teams I'd bet on UNLV and Utah State. We'll see.

Utah State has a lot of drama going on.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

WSU/OSU are smart to pick the top brands of both the MWC and AAC. You not only need the best brands to maximize tv value for the PAC, but you also need to put enough distance between your league and the remainder of those two leagues that it becomes a no-brainer to stay with them if chaos in the ACC comes next. They won't be able to survive the perception of losing any of those new brands to the ACC if that league loses teams to the P2/Big 12 and has a desire to backfill. So I'm sure there's trepidation there. If OSU/WSU gets the call to go east, they've still created a Super G5 conference with the PAC's name.

I don't think Cal and Stanford will be crazy about going back to the reconstituted PAC, they had the opportunity to stay already and went east. I think the backfilling by the PAC is a sign they are just going to try and move on and see what they can make out of something new.

Agree with all of that, including that they need to think about hurting the American in their decision process here, which Memphis + Tulane would do.

I also think Calford isn't going back right now - but it's possible that something like this happens:
*Some combination of FSU/Miami/Clemson/UNC/UVA go B1G
*ESPN pulls the TV deal, the ACC middle class panics, and the Big 12 gets its pick of the NC State/Va Tech/Pitt/Louisville tier

All that's left out east is Boston College, Wake Forest, and maybe a few others near the bottom, stuck to SMU, Cal, and Stanford. They don't have a TV deal and they need to recruit some G5 teams to even survive. Meanwhile, the Pac-12 exists, has TV deals with money, and has a West Coast focused conference. That would be attractive for Cal and Stanford I think. And depending on their programs at this point and TV viewership, they might even be Big 12 targets as well to close the loop on a truly national conference just like the B1G.

 

[2speedy1]

Yeah I dont see Cal and Stan going back in the current set up.

But if the ACC falls apart and it dissolves completely... they wont have a lot of choices.

Also if the ACC starts back filling with schools like Memphis etc. And all the top academic schools gone at that point. Will the Academics in the ACC still be that much better? Will they be that much better to justify their need for it? Will they stay in the ACC and push to backfill with low value High academic schools? Which would completely devalue the conference even more.

Do they decide go independant for football at that point? Putting their other sports in the WCC or Big East or something?

 

[cybychoice]

West: OSU WSU BS SDSU Fresno UNLV
East: Memphis UConn CSU AF Army Navy

Lot of data points against the “power 4+nd” conferences in that group of teams, military gets eyes across the country for recruiting purposes, plus stays small enough if ACC implodes they can easily pick the remnants

 

[JP4CY]

Imagine 10 years ago saying "(soon to be member) San Diego St is playing Cal in a Pac-12 vs ACC game."

 

[Cmonwhatarewedoinghereman]

West: OSU WSU BS SDSU Fresno UNLV
East: Memphis UConn CSU AF Army Navy

Lot of data points against the “power 4+nd” conferences in that group of teams, military gets eyes across the country for recruiting purposes, plus stays small enough if ACC implodes they can easily pick the remnants

I can only speak for the in-game experience, but service academy game-days are pretty awesome.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Seems to me that outside of Memphis and some other school jumping to the Pac6, that conference expansion is on hold as everyone waits to see what ESPN decide what they are going to do with their ACC contract.

I get the feeling that both Stanford and Cal will be in the ACC only a couple of years, and once it breaks apart they will rejoin the Pac. If the ACC continues forward then they would stay, but its looks like its in the best interest of ESPN to pull out of their contract with the ACC and try to get those schools into the SEC and B12. Then we all get to hear more talk about a super conference.

 

[IceCyIce]

Teams joining the new PAC really are not taking much risk, I'd think anyone in a lower conference would be in contact the the PAC to try and join. There is name recognition and a high end gain opportunity. The Colorado States and Boise's of the workld aren't making anything anyway so the risk of joining the new PAC is. low. Even if it's a shell of it's former self still better than where they are.

 

[cybychoice]

West: OSU WSU BS SDSU Fresno UNLV
East: Memphis UConn CSU AF Army Navy

Lot of data points against the “power 4+nd” conferences in that group of teams, military gets eyes across the country for recruiting purposes, plus stays small enough if ACC implodes they can easily pick the remnants

Looking at what would likely be available you end up with something like

West: OSU WSU BS SDSU Fresno UNLV CAL STANFORD SMU
East: Memphis UConn CSU AF Army Navy Syracuse BC Wake/Duke (whoever is available)

Then add Gonzaga and Villanova for Olympics and to complete a 20 team basketball conference and you’re looking at 1 with a potential for 2 playoff spots annually and minimum 8 teams in men’s bball tourney

 

[SCNCY]

Teams joining the new PAC really are not taking much risk, I'd think anyone in a lower conference would be in contact the the PAC to try and join. There is name recognition and a high end gain opportunity. The Colorado States and Boise's of the workld aren't making anything anyway so the risk of joining the new PAC is. low. Even if it's a shell of it's former self still better than where they are.

I think you’re right, there is little risk to these schools. At best they join a conference that has name recognition and a potentially higher layout then their current conference. At worst, they end up in a similar situation they are in now minus any fees they paid when they changed conferences.

 

[cyphoon]

Saw an article that said Wash St and Ore St are hoping for $11 million per year in TV revenue out of the reincarnated pac 12. I kind of wish that the Big 12 had added them at a reduced share for that amount, which would have dealt a final death blow to the pac.

H

 

[JP4CY]

Saw an article that said Wash St and Ore St are hoping for $11 million per year in TV revenue out of the reincarnated pac 12. I kind of wish that the Big 12 had added them at a reduced share for that amount, which would have dealt a final death blow to the pac.

H

Wazzu really really has some AD financial issues. I'm fascinated what happens with them.

 

[heitclone]

Agree with all of that, including that they need to think about hurting the American in their decision process here, which Memphis + Tulane would do.

I also think Calford isn't going back right now - but it's possible that something like this happens:
*Some combination of FSU/Miami/Clemson/UNC/UVA go B1G
*ESPN pulls the TV deal, the ACC middle class panics, and the Big 12 gets its pick of the NC State/Va Tech/Pitt/Louisville tier

All that's left out east is Boston College, Wake Forest, and maybe a few others near the bottom, stuck to SMU, Cal, and Stanford. They don't have a TV deal and they need to recruit some G5 teams to even survive. Meanwhile, the Pac-12 exists, has TV deals with money, and has a West Coast focused conference. That would be attractive for Cal and Stanford I think. And depending on their programs at this point and TV viewership, they might even be Big 12 targets as well to close the loop on a truly national conference just like the B1G.

I think in your scenario, the ACC would still be in a power position vs the PAC. It's more likely the acc raided this new PAC and the American to stay afloat.

Even if they lose 7 or 8 schools, the ACC would still have 9 or 10 schools that are as big a brand as anyone in the new PAC. Acc would likely grab Memphis, maybe USF or Tulane and whoever they wanted from the PAC to group with their West Coast teams.

 

[KnappShack]

I think in your scenario, the ACC would still be in a power position vs the PAC. It's more likely the acc raided this new PAC and the American to stay afloat.

Even if they lose 7 or 8 schools, the ACC would still have 9 or 10 schools that are as big a brand as anyone in the new PAC. Acc would likely grab Memphis, maybe USF or Tulane and whoever they wanted from the PAC to group with their West Coast teams.

It's like taking an old shirt, putting it on the neighbor, and expecting them to be you.

Branding power....I guess.

 

[CascadeClone]

I think you’re right, there is little risk to these schools. At best they join a conference that has name recognition and a potentially higher layout then their current conference. At worst, they end up in a similar situation they are in now minus any fees they paid when they changed conferences.

True, but the left behinds in the MWC are even more screwed. There's got to be some guilt with betraying old conference mates and jumping to the NewPac. They originally kind of said no thanks we are all in it together, then 8 months later its "bye bye Wyoming! get bent UNLV!"

IDK, maybe they still plan for some of them to come on board later, but with less/no access to the PAC12 leftover assets that OSU/WSU got in the divorce. Like a Pre-Nup for future adds...

 

[NWICY]

there is zero chance the big 12 is getting UNC. I think BY will target who he thinks he can get--and who ESPN and Fox tell him the big 12 can have. Would the big 12 rather have fsu and clemson with unequal shares, or vt and nc state as equal members?

How come I am excited about exactly 0 of these.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

I think in your scenario, the ACC would still be in a power position vs the PAC. It's more likely the acc raided this new PAC and the American to stay afloat.

Even if they lose 7 or 8 schools, the ACC would still have 9 or 10 schools that are as big a brand as anyone in the new PAC. Acc would likely grab Memphis, maybe USF or Tulane and whoever they wanted from the PAC to group with their West Coast teams.

Take Clemson, FSU, Pitt, UNV, UNC, Miami and a couple others, and their is not a lot left to say that you are better than OSU, WSU and what the Pac 6 has. Memphis and someone else will also be off the board as they have already moved to the PAC 6.

 

[KnappShack]

True, but the left behinds in the MWC are even more screwed. There's got to be some guilt with betraying old conference mates and jumping to the NewPac. They originally kind of said no thanks we are all in it together, then 8 months later its "bye bye Wyoming! get bent UNLV!"

IDK, maybe they still plan for some of them to come on board later, but with less/no access to the PAC12 leftover assets that OSU/WSU got in the divorce. Like a Pre-Nup for future adds...

Man. I feel really bad about this. Some of us were in the old WAC together. Then we formed the Mountain West, but all with the best of intentions...

This is so hard. Wait. How much is the check?

Fook dem bastids!

 

[heitclone]

Take Clemson, FSU, Pitt, UNV, UNC, Miami and a couple others, and their is not a lot left to say that you are better than OSU, WSU and what the Pac 6 has. Memphis and someone else will also be off the board as they have already moved to the PAC 6.

BC, Stanford, Cal, SMU, Georgia Tech, Wake, Syracuse +
vs
OSU, Wazzu, SDSU, Fresno, Boise, CSU

I don't think the top group is great but it's a step up from the bottom group. Better tradition, more $ and bigger brand names. OSU/WSU are probably the only schools from the new pac close the top group. Other than SDSU none of these MWC schools were seriously considered by the Big 12 ,Pac 12 or even the ACC during the last decade of realignment when they were both pretty desperate, they're definitely a rung below schools that have been playing p5 football. I feel like OSU/WSU would jump at the chance to join the top group.

 

[BCClone]

id bang just her kicks

Like mother like son.