Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

RustShack

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One super conference just isn’t going to happen. We are already seeing Fox and ESPN being tapped out of money. They can’t just double the money for the top schools to join one conference. They still have a lot of slots to fill and sports is what fills it. College football won’t be nearly as popular if only 20 or whatever teams are the only ones who matter, and not 70+.
 

Gonzo

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Behind you
The forces that have been pulling at the threads of college football ever since the 1984 OU decision in the Supreme Court are always going to be there. The fact that the SEC and B1G have been largely exempt from them so far isn't consequential. It just hasn't been your turn yet.

The degree to which our B1G posters come in here and insist "nothing bad can happen" in a forum of a school that has been through this stuff three times in fifteen years tells me you get it, even if you don't want to admit it.
With how well the Big 12 has come out of this whole deal, the master class BY gave to the PAC in media strategy and leadership, and how strongly the Big 12 has emerged with a very solid set of additions, it's just weird to me how much of the focus here is on how in 20 years the middling B1G and SEC schools might fall victim to a superconference. But whatever.
 

FerShizzle

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One super conference just isn’t going to happen. We are already seeing Fox and ESPN being tapped out of money. They can’t just double the money for the top schools to join one conference. They still have a lot of slots to fill and sports is what fills it. College football won’t be nearly as popular if only 20 or whatever teams are the only ones who matter, and not 70+.
Saudi funded college sports? Not trying to cave this, but they have unlimited funds and like to sports-wash their image.
 
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isu81

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I think the cracks might start to show if the next B10 deal (2030?) isn’t richer than the current, and will pick up speed if the SEC’s isn’t (2034?). It’s Important to note, I don’t believe either conference has a GOR.
Assume they don’t have a GOR because no one would ever want to leave.
 

Cyhig

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I guess that’s the problem. I can’t tell you with a high degree of certainty that something won’t happen that far out. But to the same point it’s futile to try to think that far out. 15 years ago in 2008 no one would have even believed or thought of Rutgers to the big ten. Let alone the LA schools. We don’t even know what the media landscape would look 15 years from now. 15 years ago Netflix was only a dvd sevice and a new one at that. That’s just so long to be saying anything with any confidence.
Exactly. But look at the events in the last 15 years. Every single realignment has involved “national brands”. The trend has been to consolidate these national brands towards one conference. We are nearly there

At some point, Michigan, Ohio State. USCLA, Oregon, Washington will look at teams like Illinois and ask themselves what value are they bringing to the conference? That has happened in the Big 12, ACC, Pac 12, and Big East.

We can’t fully predict the future. But we can look at the past and project what may happen based on the events that transpired
 

cysmiley

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I don't think the SEC is on Board for a Super Conference. They won't even play a 9 game schedule, so they can heal and prep for a NC run and give their walk ons a game. And if they don't go along, ND probably won't, so nobody's going to crown Michigam National Champion unless they have played Georgia or Alabama. I also think ESPN needs them, so ESPN doesn't have the leverage like they and FOX do with other conferences. They know their split of the pie is always going to be massive and they will never be forced into a move they don't want to take.
 
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exCyDing

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Assume they don’t have a GOR because no one would ever want to leave.
Right, but it also leaves the door open if they ever do want to leave for whatever reason they may have. Just because one or the other is under contract for the next ___ years doesn’t mean they’re locked in.
 

Cyhig

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One super conference just isn’t going to happen. We are already seeing Fox and ESPN being tapped out of money. They can’t just double the money for the top schools to join one conference. They still have a lot of slots to fill and sports is what fills it. College football won’t be nearly as popular if only 20 or whatever teams are the only ones who matter, and not 70+.
But it could if they work collectively, like the NFL
 

RustShack

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Honestly it would be hilarious if a super league formed, because within 10 years the rest will become more popular. Obviously there are casual viewers, but most fans will still be fans of their school. But maybe the super league is what it takes for college football to become what it should have been. The super league will fail and they will want to merge back.
 

FriendlySpartan

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Exactly. But look at the events in the last 15 years. Every single realignment has involved “national brands”. The trend has been to consolidate these national brands towards one conference. We are nearly there

At some point, Michigan, Ohio State. USCLA, Oregon, Washington will look at teams like Illinois and ask themselves what value are they bringing to the conference? That has happened in the Big 12, ACC, Pac 12, and Big East.

We can’t fully predict the future. But we can look at the past and project what may happen based on the events that transpired
But that hasn’t been the case, that’s just the way you choose to see it. There is no push towards one conference. There is a push to get the value you need to survive. That’s why the LA schools left. It’s not about a desire to have only one conference. Plus the money has a limit. All these insane facilities have been built with the prior media deals. Now that those deals are doubling or more at some point you just don’t need the extra money that badly. Does the AD still want it sure. But with the diminishing returns it won’t cause a conference as old and steady as the big ten to break down over a couple extra million. The presidents would never agree to it.
 

RustShack

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But it could if they work collectively, like the NFL.

No, it couldn’t. G league isn’t more popular than college basketball. NFL Europe, AFL, CFL, XFL, what’s the other name? None are more popular that college football. Pulling all the top brands together kills at least half of the brands, and their fans stop caring. Not to mention alienating 3/4 of the college football fan base. Sure, they will get a huge payday if it starts, but it ends in complete failure.
 
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Cyhig

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But that hasn’t been the case, that’s just the way you choose to see it. There is no push towards one conference. There is a push to get the value you need to survive. That’s why the LA schools left. It’s not about a desire to have only one conference. Plus the money has a limit. All these insane facilities have been built with the prior media deals. Now that those deals are doubling or more at some point you just don’t need the extra money that badly. Does the AD still want it sure. But with the diminishing returns it won’t cause a conference as old and steady as the big ten to break down over a couple extra million. The presidents would never agree to it.
And that’s the way you choose to see it.

Last time I checked, the presidents of the Pac 12 didn’t get to voto teams leaving. Certain teams said “I don’t like the offer presented to our conference and we’re leaving.” And they left over about $10M annually (for the first few years).

Nobody here wants a super conference. But we should acknowledge the non- national brands of the big 10/sec are not immune to future realignment simply because they have avoided it thus far

Edit: sorry for the edits. Got stung by 5 bees tonight and the Benadryl has really kicked in
 

David Freshman1982

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I could give a flying F about Texas, not sure why they're garnering so much discussion in this thread. Every Longhorn I've ever met has been a grade-A a-hole. A couple of them drove BMWs too, imagine that. Fitting.
 

FriendlySpartan

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And that’s the way you choose to see it.

Last time I checked, the presidents of the Pac 12 didn’t get to voto teams leaving. Certain teams said “I don’t like the offer presented to our conference and we’re leaving.” And they left over about $10M annually (for the first few years).

Nobody here wants a super conference. But we should acknowledge the non- national brands of the big 10/sec are not immune to future realignment simply because they have avoided it thus far

Edit: sorry for the edits. Got stung by 5 bees tonight and the Benadryl has really kicked in
Ouch that’s no fun.

Here’s the thing though, those teams only left when they were given no other option. They stayed loyal till it was clear there was no deal at all to be had. Which is also kind of insane because 6 of the ten are getting paid 30mil per year, add in the LA schools and you have a deal worth the same or more as the Big12. If the PAC had competent leadership they would be intact.

Now look at the SEC. Those schools like bama and Georgia could have jumped to the big ten to make more money. By your logic they would have. But guess what, they don’t leave because the extra money isn’t worth the hassle and breaking of tradition. Same reason the big ten schools wouldn’t leave to pursue a couple extra million that they don’t need.
 
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