Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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The interesting part of that article was the big 12 is expected to make “north of 30mil” how far north are we talking though? If the pac is going to get 25-30ish out for bid does 35mil get some teams to move? Does 40mil? I really wonder what the magic number some of these teams have that the big 12 needs to hit. Would be interesting if after all this speculation everything just stayed as is for another 5-6 years.
No ******* way are those numbers real. Colorado isn't 99% full. Laughable.
The PAC10 tried to engaged discussions with both but FOX already said no thanks, we’re good”. leaving ESPN to engaged to decide if they want to pay just enough to keep the PAC10 around for a few years. They apparently aren’t too interested right thus the PAC10 rights are going to the open market.
The comments about past issues (OUT) with both Fox/ESPN won’t stop the network and the Big12 from being business partners feels that there is real interest for the media rights. If for no other reason then to box out the other networks for competitive content. I assume all 4 networks will be engaged on the Big12 rights to get an off 40+ (Maybe 50?).
Even if only half the P2 money still a deal compared the SEC/Big10 but content is valuable especially if B12 can add the after dark window with some additions.
Some of those on Twitter were saying that ESPN was willing to come up to near $30M per for the Pac late in the 30 day window, but came with quite a list of contingencies. One of those being a GoR of 12 years for all members. That would be a killer. That would take it out to the almost as long as the ACC, for less money, by quite a bit. It would be a killer.
If that is true, none of the schools would want that. From what I have been reading none want a GoR longer than 5-6 years and ORWA want even less. And even the $25M rumored deal came with a 5-6 year GoR I believe.
I think there are several aspects to this, not only money. But what teams are locked into and for how long. Right now being locked into a deal with how fast things are changing is not a good deal. They want deals that give them security but also allow growth and renegotiation regularly.
So if it is believed that the Big 12 will get a favorable length of deal of 5-7 years with a slight bump in money it is still quite a bit better than a deal that locks them in to the slightly lower money for 12+ years.
Negotiating $30M for 12 years, is much worse than
Negotiating $35M for 6 years, and $60M for the next 6 years. (Navient believes Big 12 will be $40M+)
If it is believed that they can get the second deal in the Big 12 vs the first in the Pac 10 that is huge.
Problem is the schools that report more than max capacity, completely throws the data off.
So say ISU only reports 3 games at 100% the rest at 99%, they will show below 100%
But then Baylor has one game where they report 104%, one at 100% and the rest at 99% they will show more than 100% capacity, or right at 100%
Similarly 1 game at above 100% will bring up places with the rest sub 100% to be artificially higher.
Also, places that routinely use tarps to cover seats...(BAYLOR) also do not count those seats in capacity. So even though they have a 50K seat stadium if they cover 15K seats, if they then sell 35K seats they are considered a sellout/at capacity. This means when people look at these places they think they are selling out their stadium of 50K or whatever it is, but actually only selling out the non covered sections.
This means it is really easy for places like Colorado etc to fudge the numbers. If they tarp a few sections to match their ticket sales then it looks better on paper, when looking at stats like this.
Former Utah AD weighs in and doesn’t think going to the Big 12 is worth it.
Former Utah AD says no reason to jump into Big 12 unless the goal is “to destroy” the Pac-12
Former athletic director Chris Hill, who oversaw the Utes’ jump to the Pac-12, believes the financial benefits of switching leagues is limited.www.mercurynews.com
Lots of old thinking in there from the retired guy.
How much soothes wounded pride and butthurt?
I think time is a factor. We have to remember, despite everything to the contrary, the PAC saw themselves as peers to the BIG and SEC until USC left. The fact they are now behind the Big 12 and the era of the P5 is over is new to them. It is all about survival now, and survival while making much less than at least half of the old peer group
I get the idea if the Big 12 added 6 PAC schools and could somehow change the name to PAC18, these people would be much more receptive.
The former Utah AD could have not been more wrong. Staying the the PAC for $5 million less is very short-sighted, and consolidation with rest of leftovers DOES make the PAC schools more valuable.
A more likely explanation is that Wilner is lazy and assumed Big 12 stadiums had capacities similar to those in the Pac-12. The butts-in-seats is pretty similar, empty seats not as much.
Funnily enough, losing USC and UCLA and USC actually helps the Pac-12 on Percent of Capacity. They were 10th and 12th respectively in that league, and would be 13th and 16th if included in the new look Big 12. Weirdly they still got Big 10 invites.
BYU looks to challenge ISU for the Big 12 attendance crown, and UCF is a solid 43,788, which would be good for 10th ahead of TCU, Cincinnati, KU, and Houston.
Houston…woof. They manage to have both terrible attendance (25,518) and percent of capacity (63.79%).
Around 150.
I can open up the daughters ubill and find out. Don’t want to until late august when I have to pay it.
Holy Grail BCJ Podcast Ep 340 Jason Scheer And Camp Opens
Chad Brendel and realignment expert Dave Simone are joined by 247 Arizona publisher Jason Scheer of WildcatAuthority.com to discuss where the Pac 12 stands in the national
247sports.com
When reading reports and stories we have to be careful what $ they are predicting, total conference payout, or just the TV deal.
Time duration is important also. They use the average so just say median to make it simpler. 5 years at 35 Mm is way better than 12 years at 30MM although it only sounds like a 5 MM difference. At five years, you are talking like 29 MM versus 40 MM or so.
Or Iowa, when someone would buy the last few thousand for a small donation and then they would walk around handing out tickets for free.
