Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

PickSix

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I haven’t listened to this but wtf is up with the title/notes?



Haven’t listened and won’t. Just a ridiculous fabrication to get clicks while we all wait for the real news.

It’s not even worth our time. I just really hope we’re not about to spend 10 pages debating the merits of Minnesota…
 

Clonedogg

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I really think there are a lot of moving factors right now.

  • What does ND do
  • What does Big 10 do if/when ND decides either way
  • What does Pac 10 get on open market
  • What does Big 12 get from media partners as a projection w/ and w/o certain additions
  • Will anyone in the Pac sign a GoR
  • Will the Big 12 projected deal be far enough ahead of Pac without actual bids
  • If Big 10 does not add any more at this time, can ORWA convince others to stay at reduced share.
  • How much value is projected in certain Pac schools to really entice the Big 12 and Media to add, and which ones.
I agree the ball is in the Big 12s court, to a point. But it is also in the Big 10s too. They have to decide what to do with or without ND. The Pac is just now waiting to see what everyone throws at them to a point, from media partners to Conferences.
If the Pac does not get a deal with traditional TV partners, CBS/NBC, I'd bet those networks are waiting on Big12. From a CBS/NBC perspective they might be able to get similar programing in Pac vs Big12 for a discount, problem is Pac has no early windows. Man, it just does not look good for them. I wonder if we will ever hear what the offers are/were.

Lets say ESPN bid rumor is accurate <25m per. How much would a non-traditional partner (streaming) have to offer to win the contact. 35m per (+10m)..? Your conference might have more money but less visibility.
 
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2speedy1

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Perhaps, but there is a chance they are higher. And the good news is, if they are, it is based on the networks and consultants telling the Big 12 so, and perhaps AZ and Co preferring them over Oregon St and WSU. Not likely, but plausible. If you want to make it binary though, it is a 0.

The interest in SDSU is calculated and informed. And it arguably has more of an impact on the PAC than WSU and Oregon St. There is a reason why WSU, despite having better ratings than most PAC schools recently, is in the scrap pile.
You keep saying these things but I have yet to see you post a single fact to ever back anything up.

Multiple people have posted many facts and links to information that refutes what you say, including the value of SDSU. But you still argue the same points, over and over. If you had anything to back anything you say up it might help. But when you don't and everyone else has posted so much detailed information to refute your mostly opinion and guesses, it just sounds like the same rhetoric over and over.
 

CloneJD

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This has been a healthy discussion but i’m going to go ahead and close this thread for our sanity. You’re welcome.
 

exCyDing

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Perhaps, but there is a chance they are higher. And the good news is, if they are, it is based on the networks and consultants telling the Big 12 so, and perhaps AZ and Co preferring them over Oregon St and WSU. Not likely, but plausible. If you want to make it binary though, it is a 0.

The interest in SDSU is calculated and informed. And it arguably has more of an impact on the PAC than WSU and Oregon St. There is a reason why WSU, despite having better ratings than most PAC schools recently, is in the scrap pile.
The Big XII passed on a full merger because the PAC as a whole didn't bring enough value to keep the Big XII money at its current level. Guess who was bringing up the rear? WA St and OR St. WA St is on the scrapheap because they're coming off a decent run and have had okay ratings based on that. They're far from a population center and their fanbase has a cap. The last couple of years have been a high water mark.

Okay, so SDSU is in a place with a far larger population, so they could grow their fanbase right? Sure, except San Diego doesn't care about organized sports. It's not that it doesn't care about SDSU because they're not playing big boy football in the PAC or Big XII, they don't care because they're playing football. They don't care about the PAC. Quite honestly, a lot of the local population probably couldn't point out any state with a Big XII team besides Florida and Texas (because it's the big one).

I just don't see any justification for SDSU other than they were considered under far different circumstances last year and they're in a major TV market. I'd still rank them as #11 at best for expansion this year, and probably around #20 with Wake Forest and Boston College if we look at expansion options over the next 15 years.
 
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FriendlySpartan

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I really think there are a lot of moving factors right now.

  • What does ND do
  • What does Big 10 do if/when ND decides either way
  • What does Pac 10 get on open market
  • What does Big 12 get from media partners as a projection w/ and w/o certain additions
  • Will anyone in the Pac sign a GoR
  • Will the Big 12 projected deal be far enough ahead of Pac without actual bids
  • If Big 10 does not add any more at this time, can ORWA convince others to stay at reduced share.
  • How much value is projected in certain Pac schools to really entice the Big 12 and Media to add, and which ones.
I agree the ball is in the Big 12s court, to a point. But it is also in the Big 10s too. They have to decide what to do with or without ND. The Pac is just now waiting to see what everyone throws at them to a point, from media partners to Conferences.
Fair points. ND doesn’t appear to be moving away from being independent until they are forced to do so. Until they do I think the big ten could be fine where they are currently. That means the Pac has about a year to figure this out. By the end of that time either the remaining 10 will sign a new GOR for most likely a shorter period of time or they will jump ship to the Big12. If the big 12 can’t provide some solid numbers to justify the move it’s possible that things just stay where they are.
 

RustShack

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Fair points. ND doesn’t appear to be moving away from being independent until they are forced to do so. Until they do I think the big ten could be fine where they are currently. That means the Pac has about a year to figure this out. By the end of that time either the remaining 10 will sign a new GOR for most likely a shorter period of time or they will jump ship to the Big12. If the big 12 can’t provide some solid numbers to justify the move it’s possible that things just stay where they are.
I think the first step in moving from Independent happened when they told NBC they want 75 million a year, getting them up towards B1G money, because the money the B1G is offering is too much to turn down now. We haven’t heard if NBC will agree to pay that yet.
 

StPaulCyclone

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Duh!
Agree. I'm not a golfer, but all I know of this woman is she golfs and splashes pics of her butt and boobs everywhere for middle-aged men to ogle. Maybe it's because I have daughters who are 21 and 17, but the fact that this is what she wants to be known for is weird and kind of gross.
She was a collegiate golfer at Arizona and SDSU, so completely on topic.
 
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exCyDing

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Fair points. ND doesn’t appear to be moving away from being independent until they are forced to do so. Until they do I think the big ten could be fine where they are currently. That means the Pac has about a year to figure this out. By the end of that time either the remaining 10 will sign a new GOR for most likely a shorter period of time or they will jump ship to the Big12. If the big 12 can’t provide some solid numbers to justify the move it’s possible that things just stay where they are.
Doesn't the Big XII start negotiating their renewal next summer since their Fox deal expires in 2025? Fox just declined to give the PAC an offer during their exclusive window. That would seem to be a logical step if they'd like some PAC schools moved over and then lock down the Big XII early.
 

CascadeClone

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Oct 24, 2009
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Haven’t listened and won’t. Just a ridiculous fabrication to get clicks while we all wait for the real news.

It’s not even worth our time. I just really hope we’re not about to spend 10 pages debating the merits of Minnesota…

Minnesota or San Diego State... which will bring more fans to the Big12 women's pickleball tournament in Reno Nevada in 2035?

And how many viewers will watch it on the Ocho?
 

isucy86

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Doesn't the Big XII start negotiating their renewal next summer since their Fox deal expires in 2025? Fox just declined to give the PAC an offer during their exclusive window. That would seem to be a logical step if they'd like some PAC schools moved over and then lock down the Big XII early.
Lots of scenarios.

Could mean Fox is all-in on Big10 and CFB Playoff.

If projections on playoff were accurate at $1.5-$2.0B, even getting half of playoff is similar investment or more than major player for Big12 or Pac12.
 

WhoISthis

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Oct 6, 2010
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Lots of scenarios.

Could mean Fox is all-in on Big10 and CFB Playoff.

If projections on playoff were accurate at $1.5-$2.0B, even getting half of playoff is similar investment or more than major player for Big12 or Pac12.
right, I’d be surprised if Fox was interested in Big 12 or even Big 16/18.

If Big 10 is at 20+ schools, Fox doesn’t have the time slots for another conference, and really doesn’t want to have BIG games displaced. They aren’t neutral on this- via BTN equity, they want the BIG to get preferred treatment.

The one thing that makes me think they could be involved at some level is that macros are better for them if ESPN doesn’t get control of Big 16+.
 

GoldCy

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At this point, how much can the Big12 do to establish they will get $40M+?

I am assuming the Big12 contract language with Fox & ESPN is similar to the Pac12 deal regarding an exclusive window next summer to negotiate a new Big12 deal for 2025+. The Big12 could hire media consultants to provide estimates on potential value, but that is far different than having a solid offer.

Plus how would the gap year between when the Pac12 & Big12 contracts end work if the Big12 added Pac12 teams? If ESPN or Fox aren't party to the new Big12 contract, why would they pay more to the Big12 in 2024/25 to add Pac12 teams. There is already potential the Big12 will have 14 teams if OU & UT are still around for 2024/25.

The one positive for Pac12 teams during that gap year is the Pac12 Network has TV equipment.
Equipment has a very short life the way technology advances.
 

Kinch

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Sep 19, 2021
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There’s no disruption value. No one believes it. And if it occurred, no one cares.MN doesn’t really help the Big 12, and the Big 12 certainly doesn’t help MN. One more spot for another school.
This isn't about getting Minnesota to the Big 12. Part of this might be some schools in the Big 10 west to show their unease with what is going on. Sure they are getting unheard of money. But it has come at a cost to them and college athletics. One of the costs is that schools like Minnesota have basically been told to give up their voice in exchange for 100 million or maybe we will form a super conference and take our ball elsewhere. Fox Sports has a seat at the table. Another thing that has caused them to pause is to see the upheaval that has been caused inthe proxy war between Fox and ESPN and the BiG and SEC, with the Big 12, pac 12 ACC being caught in the crosshairs. Who will be in the crosshairs 20 years from now when new media rights will have to be negotiated? I think Yormark understands the dynamics in the Big 10 and SEC better than most. Since this was broken by a Minnesota press, my guess it was done with the permission of the University of Minnesota. The audience was not us. This could be totally wrong, but keep in mind two things. One is two days later and Minnesota still has not come out with a public comment. The other is Gary Barta even has made a public statement about the Big 10s plans and was thrown under the bus by the commissioner.
 

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