Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

jcyclonee

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Iowa is 18th in brand value. 6th or 7th in the B10. There’d be a long list of schools cut out before Iowa.
As stated earlier by @2speedy1, this is directly tied to conference affiliation. USC moving to the Big 10 bumps them up to a top 10-ish value. Iowa moving to the Pac 12 would drop them to a late 20-ish value.
 

Drew0311

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A small chance, but I can see in 10 years that the most unstable conferences will be BIg10 and SEC. Conferences that poach, can be poached.


Also it always sounds good at first to have all the big dogs team up to be on the same side. Until ego's get in the way of it all. Don't believe me? Just go watch some WCW and the NWO. We knew that would never last.
 
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2speedy1

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Brand value Iowa 19. All the math I need to know. Also, what kind of math are you using? that is different then all the other numbers?
Well For the ACC GOR there is 14 years left, you figure they are paying about $40M per year roughly right now. Then you have to compound that by 5-10% annually for growth, over 14 years. Then you have to add additional exit fees most likely in the $100-200M per school. You are looking at a ball park $1B, for any team to leave the ACC right now.

Texas and OU wont leave even 1 year early to pay 1 year of media rights and exit fees to the Big 12 but people think ACC teams will pay 14 years...Get real.
 

simply1

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jcyclonee

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I think it's a lie...but IF...Washington and Oregon don't bring enough value for Big Ten as today's leak said. It means only about three teams not in the SEC would bring them value.

Nothing of value but stealing from each other. By all accounts Washington and Oregon seem to be in the 20-25 range of value.
At this point, it looks like the Big 10 is only looking at schools that bring a better than average (for the Big 10) value. Washington and Oregon are probably just below that level.
 

isuno1fan

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CW sounding like it’s eat or be eaten and it’s not a guarantee that the Big 12 outlasts the Pac-12. Which is obvious to anyone actually paying attention.

I think the PAC brand will win out because of history and tenure but it’ll be a merger of some sorts with a PAC brand. B12 name goes away.
 
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AuH2O

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Brand value is not the same as the value brought to a conference by being members. Some of it ends up flowing through of course, but mostly it just matters for the individual school.

Iowa faces the same problem ISU does. It is a school in a small-population state (the next larger state is almost double the size) so it isn't going to drive many viewers relative to the other big players. The only smaller state in the big 10 is Nebraska, and while they have a far superior historical brand, if they don't start to turn things around they should probably be worried too, because if members start getting dumped it'll be from those small states first.
That's a very important distinction. The brand value is based on a lot of things that bring little to no value to the conference. A school with a bunch of donors pumping in revenue doesn't help the conference directly. A team that draws great at home but sucks on TV (hello, Washington) doesn't really help the conference.

I still think Iowa is good enough of a TV product to be safely in a 30 team league, but these are good points.

Things would be really interesting if leagues start figuring out how to dump teams. Maybe we'll see the magic number of teams needed in the SEC to dissolve all "leave" the conference only to get back together to form a new conference without the likes of Vandy, Mizzou, and Arkansas. This might be the next step when expansion seems to have hit the point of negative returns.
 
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HFCS

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At this point, it looks like the Big 10 is only looking at schools that bring a better than average (for the Big 10) value. Washington and Oregon are probably just below that level.

That's what I mean. I'm not sure even Miami would qualify now that Big Ten teams are so boosted up from all the cash. Clemson, FSU, ND...and raiding SEC. You certainly wouldn't add BOTH Miami and FSU if you were Big Ten or SEC going by that law.

They always bring up UNC to Big Ten, is UNC more valuable than Oregon and Washington? I've never seen any metrics that show they are.

I think it's a bit of a lie that they wouldn't ever add Washington/Oregon...probably connected to quest for Notre Dame.

I think they are saying that to give themselves cover that they didn't just break the Pac 10 permanently.
 
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HFCS

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That's a very important distinction. The brand value is based on a lot of things that bring little to no value to the conference. A school with a bunch of donors pumping in revenue doesn't help the conference directly. A team that draws great at home but sucks on TV (hello, Washington) doesn't really help the conference.

I still think Iowa is good enough of a TV product to be safely in a 30 team league, but these are good points.

Things would be really interesting if leagues start figuring out how to dump teams. Maybe we'll see the magic number of teams needed in the SEC to dissolve all "leave" the conference only to get back together to form a new conference without the likes of Vandy, Mizzou, and Arkansas. This might be the next step when expansion seems to have hit the point of negative returns.

Iowa picked a great time to have a consistent successful 2 decades plus coach...if this breakaway super league emerges soon.

More likely the Vandy/NW/MissSt/Illinois crowd just gets grandfathered into the "Power 2", but I'll give credit to Iowa football that they put themselves in position where they could be part of a breakaway league if they wanted. I'd definitely say Iowa and Wisconsin have played their way to a station above Nebraska quite clearly.
 
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jcyclonee

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Basketball is pretty much a non-factor in these valuations, in fact some are just valuing football only. Iowa's football attendance is still pretty good. In an era where attendance is slipping, Iowa and ISU have held on well. They are a pretty solid TV draw too. Interestingly in the Big 10 the last couple of years Wisconsin has pretty much moved up with PSU and Michigan in the tier below Ohio State. They are damn good on TV. Then there's a big gap. Then MSU, Iowa and Nebraska are solid. The rest are pretty hit and miss, mostly miss.

Getting left out of a league with 30 or more teams is not a concern for Iowa. They might struggle to compete consistently, but they aren't getting left out.
I'm just concerned (maybe concerned isn't the right word) that athletics at UCLA may become nearly irrelevant. If they can't draw greater interest in a basketball program with that much tradition when they make really good runs, it just doesn't seem to bode well for athletics overall. I guess I don't blame UCLA fans for that. There is so much to do in the area and you're rarely ever forced to be inside. When I was younger, I was a big UCLA fan. The uniforms looked cool and (like the kid from My Tutor) the thought of studying astronomy at UCLA seemed cool. I guess I was just missing the hot tutor.