Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[cykadelic2]

Cool... But my post was about the idea that there is a line of deep pockets waiting to pay 3x what the Big 12 and others are getting, that somehow for the last 2 decades these conferences have refused to take that big money in order to stay with their ESPN and Fox overlords.

It was about the fact that saying something is worth $X is all great and all, but in the end it is only worth what someone is willing to pay, and from what I have seen regardless of how much anyone believes college sports are worth, no one is or has been willing to pay more than ESPN or Fox for the majority of content. So I would say the value is precisely what is being paid.

10 years from now guesses are nothing more than that, guesses.

You're badly missing the boat on the fact that 5-10 years ago, deep pocketed streamers like Amazon weren't positioned to be viable bidders, the likes of CBS and NBC weren't positioned with Paramount+ and Peacock (as well as not having conference network ties) and CFP access has been completely tethered to ESPN. That has now obviously changed except for CFP access. I didn't think that needed to be explained to you but evidently that wasn't the case.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Cool... But my post was about the idea that there is a line of deep pockets waiting to pay 3x what the Big 12 and others are getting, that somehow for the last 2 decades these conferences have refused to take that big money in order to stay with their ESPN and Fox overlords.

It was about the fact that saying something is worth $X is all great and all, but in the end it is only worth what someone is willing to pay

The last two decades of history of the media rights market isn’t particularly relevant. Way too much disruption and change

But I’m not exactly bullish on another bidder coming in and paying anything close to P2 rate, as it’s essentially not possible for 3 conferences to get the viewership needed for that premium rate. Fortunately there is subscription revenue now, but that’s more about keeping us around current level when augmenting getting a filler rate on linear

You’re correct the P2 networks have a lot of leverage on setting the price. To a degree they even have leverage on P2. There is potential to use a well capitalized partner like Redbird as a middleman. They can better afford to play hardball, particularly if leveraging their equity in media assets

 

[FinalFourCy]

Houston doesn't do diddly squat for TV ratings on their own even if they are Top 25. Any favorable ratings for them is function of who they're playing or a time slot with minimal competition. Home attendance generally correlate with TV ratings.

It was a mistake for the B12 to add commuter schools like UCF and UH and it would be a far bigger mistake to add more like them with USF, Memphis, etc.

That’s true for most Big 12 schools as far as the networks are concerned

You’re thinking one move at a time. Long term, TV ratings (and its existence) for the Big 12 will require keeping up with P2 despite making a lot less. Houston and the other G5s have been doing that for decades.

 

[isucy86]

Exactly this. Netflix decided they wanted 'events' and have stated they don't really want to be anybody's TV partner. Apple's deal with MLS has been a disaster but their small MLB package seems to work.

Amazon seems like the only legitimate option to take a full season package and I think they're going to want the brand power of the Big Ten and not just settle for any package they can find.

We're stuck with ESPN and FOX whether we want to be or not.

Another player could be Paramount+/Skydance for Big12 Media Rights.

They already sub-license football and men's/women's hoops. Feel like they are doing a test run evaluating college sports with an eye for being a bigger player in 2030+.

But agree, it will be interesting to see when 2030 arrives, are streamers interested only in high viewership games or do they want game volume? Which path will drive more new subscribers, lower churn, etc.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Another player could be Paramount+/Skydance for Big12 Media Rights.

They already sub-license football and men's/women's hoops. Feel like they are doing a test run evaluating college sports with an eye for being a bigger player in 2030+.

But agree, it will be interesting to see when 2030 arrives, are streamers interested only in high viewership games or do they want game volume? Which path will drive more new subscribers, lower churn, etc.

With Redbird having 22.5% of voting rights in paramount, it seems that’s what our play is to at the very least, prevent a 2023 situation in which the market was whatever ESPN wanted it to be

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Among many other prevailing theories thrown out here that I reject as false, I question the notion streamers are positioned to be real players in future sports television rights.

None seem to have an appetite to be a primary rights holder. Only one has rights to recurring regular season and playoff games, Amazon Prime.

I will continue to bang the drum sports media rights are a bubble close to bursting

 

[FinalFourCy]

Among many other prevailing theories thrown out here that I reject as false, I question the notion streamers are positioned to be real players in future sports television rights.

None seem to have an appetite to be a primary rights holder. Only one has rights to recurring regular season and playoff games, Amazon Prime.

I will continue to bang the drum sports media rights are a bubble close to bursting

Even if it is close to bursting, some will come out of the bubble like Google, others will be Ask Jeeves

It’s not the P2 and their partners that will be a casualty of the bubble bursting. Arguably, preparing for the disruption is why consolidation is occurring and we’re essentially getting culled

On the other hand, it is very early to say because a nascent tech like streaming doesn’t yet have full season content, it’s not coming. Unlike linear companies, offtake like Apple and Amazon can justify overpaying for rights as a loss leader. This is a very good thing for non-P2

There’s a reason why Fox is lobbying that the SBA doesn’t include streaming. Tough to compete with buyers that don’t require the profit you do.

 

[Kinch]

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Even if it is close to bursting, some will come out of the bubble like Google, others will be Ask Jeeves

It’s not the P2 and their partners that will be a casualty of the bubble bursting. Arguably, preparing for the disruption is why consolidation is occurring and we’re essentially getting culled

On the other hand, it is very early to say because a nascent tech like streaming doesn’t yet have full season content, it’s not coming. Unlike linear companies, offtake like Apple and Amazon can justify overpaying for rights as a loss leader. This is a very good thing for non-P2

There’s a reason why Fox is lobbying that the SBA doesn’t include streaming. Tough to compete with buyers that don’t require the profit you do.

I agree with this. It will be the only way valuable schools can increase their revenue per school when overall rights fees are not increasing.

I don’t see why Apple or Amazon would want to overpay to be a loss leader. Streaming is neither of their business’ core competency. Amazon is a marketplace, Prime streaming’s goal is to increase Prime membership and Amazon purchases. Apples core competency is hardware and operating systems. They use Apple TV to entice people to purchase Apple devices.

If someone was going to overpay it would be a Netflix or a Hulu. Netflix only wants events or ad hoc games. Hulu is owned by Disney who owns ESPN

 

[FinalFourCy]

I don’t see why Apple or Amazon would want to overpay to be a loss leader. Streaming is neither of their business’ core competency. Amazon is a marketplace, Prime streaming’s goal is to increase Prime membership and Amazon purchases. Apples core competency is hardware and operating systems. They use Apple TV to entice people to purchase Apple devices.

The fact it isn’t their core competency is exactly why rights being a loss leader is effective spending for them, and a big advantage

A way to get people in the door to buy other things. Similar to Costco selling cheap hotdogs and gas stations making most of their money off the snacks people buy when stopping for gas



So although they don’t have the TINA aspect of needing rights like legacy linear like ESPN, for which it’s also a loss leader, some streamers can more easily justify the increasing rights costs. This is why Fox is lobbying that the NFL is violating SBA- they can’t compete in this loss leader market for rights with companies like Amazon and Apple

 

[cykadelic2]

 

[2speedy1]

You're badly missing the boat on the fact that 5-10 years ago, deep pocketed streamers like Amazon weren't positioned to be viable bidders, the likes of CBS and NBC weren't positioned with Paramount+ and Peacock (as well as not having conference network ties) and CFP access has been completely tethered to ESPN. That has now obviously changed except for CFP access. I didn't think that needed to be explained to you but evidently that wasn't the case.

Wait wut?

CBS, NBC, Amazon, Apple, Paramount, Peacock, Netflix etc etc were all part of the conversation and negotiations a few years ago, with the current contracts across the major conferences. None of them wanted to outbid ESPN/Fox and for the most part the ones that actually wanted content, decided they only wanted to sublicense a selection of games as needed. Could the want more in the future, maybe, but they just as well decide they want less too. Who knows. They may be completely happy with the sublicense content they have and decide to continue that route.

Could that change in the future, sure. But saying they will be willing to pay 3x what is considered the current value, saying the product is worth way more when no one has been willing to pay way more etc. is nothing but pure speculation.

You know how ESPN got control of all the things you complain they control.... by bidding more than everyone else. How they continue to maintain control... by no one else signaling they are willing to outbid ESPN, and providing the same or more Exposure of said content as ESPN provides.

The idea that there are all kinds of people foaming at the mouth to outbid ESPN and Fox and that they have been is nothing but fantasy at this point.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Wait wut?

CBS, NBC, Amazon, Apple, Paramount, Peacock, Netflix etc etc were all part of the conversation and negotiations a few years ago, with the current contracts across the major conferences. None of them wanted to outbid ESPN/Fox and for the most part the ones that actually wanted content, decided they only wanted to sublicense a selection of games as needed. Could the want more in the future, maybe, but they just as well decide they want less too. Who knows. They may be completely happy with the sublicense content they have and decide to continue that route.

Your original statement was two decades. Two decades ago streaming didn’t really exist

Even 3 years ago, Prime had yet to be profitable. It now is, and a big part of that has been increased investment in sports

I don’t think even 2x rights appreciation will happen, but besides the market being different, some of any increase would come from single seller leverage rather than just more demand

 

[FinalFourCy]

I don’t think it’s necessary a great bill for M2, but the butthurt by P2 is entertaining

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I don’t think it’s necessary a great bill for M2, but the butthurt by P2 is entertaining

Well when in doubt you have to listen to the president of the New York Yankees on how college sports should operate, there is just so much overlap lol

 

[2speedy1]

Your original statement was two decades. Two decades ago streaming didn’t really exist

Even 3 years ago, Prime had yet to be profitable. It now is, and a big part of that has been increased investment in sports

I don’t think even 2x rights appreciation will happen, but besides the market being different, some of any increase would come from single seller leverage rather than just more demand

The point was that saying there have been people willing to outbid ESPN and Fox and that CFB media rights are worth 3x what they are getting because ESPN and Fox keep everyone out and have control of everything is a fantasy.

The reason ESPN and Fox became the people in control is because for the lest several cycles of media deal negotiations no one else has been willing to pay more. And many of those other entities wanted only a selection of content, or they completely got out of the game all together. Then what others were offering was less exposure and viewability on top of it.

I am sure the B12 would love someone to come in and offer 3x the money for as much or more viewability as they have now, but no one has been willing to do that.

I threw out 2 decades because that was around the time a couple contracts ago when things started to really swing in money and control. ESPN and Fox started sucking up as much as possible and others dropped out of the bidding etc. I was not saying streaming was a thing 2 decades ago, but it was a few years ago during the last negotiation, and what and how they wanted things was not enough to outbid ESPN or FOX, so it is not like those companies are keeping others out, its more like others have not wanted to outbid them.

Could other players come to the table in the future, sure. But saying there are all these big pocket players just itching to give money for a contract is just ridiculous. Hell, we have no idea what the media landscape might look like when the next round kicks off. For all we know ESPN could be bankrupt and sold off in pieces. These media companies merge and break up and merge again constantly. Hell technology is changing so fast we have no idea if streaming will still be in its current form or something totally different by then.

We can all speculate, we can all guess, we can all dream, we can all hope etc. But acting like we KNOW what is going to happen, acting like we KNOW that the product is worth 3x what is, because there is a line of big pockets wanting to pay, etc is ridiculous.

I guessed that USCLA etc was going to happen months before it did, It was a good guess, I should have bet on it, but it was just speculation using what I knew at the time and how I felt things were headed. But I never said I KNEW it was coming, just that it was my opinion and a guess.

If anyone truly knows the future please give me the winning powerball numbers. There are some on here that act like our WVU twitter friends, with how much they KNOW is happening.

 

[2speedy1]

Well when in doubt you have to listen to the president of the New York Yankees on how college sports should operate, there is just so much overlap lol

Well the MLBs media system is such a well run machine.....

Last I checked Iowa was still on the black out list for like 6 teams. Basically any team within 6-8 hour drive is blacked out here. Order MLB.com or whatever its called .... blackout rules still apply.

Talk about a stupid way to run a media deal in this day and age.

Fans that grew up watching a team are all dying off from old age, and new fans are not entering the system because no one can watch a team with any consistency to become a fan.

Same goes for the NHL.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Well when in doubt you have to listen to the president of the New York Yankees on how college sports should operate, there is just so much overlap lol

His resume is more relevant on the topic than conference commissioners and college presidents, most of which have never been an attorney involved in labor negotiations or rights pooling or starting a network

 

[Kinch]

It’s awesome that the NYY is taking Big 10 and SEC to the woodshed. Big 10 has been taken down a few notches in the court of public opinion this year. It’s just awesome as a Cyclone fan for me to see it.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Levine is being kind.

It’s not that they don’t want change, it’s that they don’t want to lose the ability to further change things in their favor

This bill doesn’t really change anything in terms of realignment or conference hierarchy. It just hits pause on current configuration