Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[cykadelic2]

Cool... But my post was about the idea that there is a line of deep pockets waiting to pay 3x what the Big 12 and others are getting, that somehow for the last 2 decades these conferences have refused to take that big money in order to stay with their ESPN and Fox overlords.

It was about the fact that saying something is worth $X is all great and all, but in the end it is only worth what someone is willing to pay, and from what I have seen regardless of how much anyone believes college sports are worth, no one is or has been willing to pay more than ESPN or Fox for the majority of content. So I would say the value is precisely what is being paid.

10 years from now guesses are nothing more than that, guesses.

You're badly missing the boat on the fact that 5-10 years ago, deep pocketed streamers like Amazon weren't positioned to be viable bidders, the likes of CBS and NBC weren't positioned with Paramount+ and Peacock (as well as not having conference network ties) and CFP access has been completely tethered to ESPN. That has now obviously changed except for CFP access. I didn't think that needed to be explained to you but evidently that wasn't the case.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Cool... But my post was about the idea that there is a line of deep pockets waiting to pay 3x what the Big 12 and others are getting, that somehow for the last 2 decades these conferences have refused to take that big money in order to stay with their ESPN and Fox overlords.

It was about the fact that saying something is worth $X is all great and all, but in the end it is only worth what someone is willing to pay

The last two decades of history of the media rights market isn’t particularly relevant. Way too much disruption and change

But I’m not exactly bullish on another bidder coming in and paying anything close to P2 rate, as it’s essentially not possible for 3 conferences to get the viewership needed for that premium rate. Fortunately there is subscription revenue now, but that’s more about keeping us around current level when augmenting getting a filler rate on linear

You’re correct the P2 networks have a lot of leverage on setting the price. To a degree they even have leverage on P2. There is potential to use a well capitalized partner like Redbird as a middleman. They can better afford to play hardball, particularly if leveraging their equity in media assets

 

[FinalFourCy]

Houston doesn't do diddly squat for TV ratings on their own even if they are Top 25. Any favorable ratings for them is function of who they're playing or a time slot with minimal competition. Home attendance generally correlate with TV ratings.

It was a mistake for the B12 to add commuter schools like UCF and UH and it would be a far bigger mistake to add more like them with USF, Memphis, etc.

That’s true for most Big 12 schools as far as the networks are concerned

You’re thinking one move at a time. Long term, TV ratings (and its existence) for the Big 12 will require keeping up with P2 despite making a lot less. Houston and the other G5s have been doing that for decades.

 

[isucy86]

Exactly this. Netflix decided they wanted 'events' and have stated they don't really want to be anybody's TV partner. Apple's deal with MLS has been a disaster but their small MLB package seems to work.

Amazon seems like the only legitimate option to take a full season package and I think they're going to want the brand power of the Big Ten and not just settle for any package they can find.

We're stuck with ESPN and FOX whether we want to be or not.

Another player could be Paramount+/Skydance for Big12 Media Rights.

They already sub-license football and men's/women's hoops. Feel like they are doing a test run evaluating college sports with an eye for being a bigger player in 2030+.

But agree, it will be interesting to see when 2030 arrives, are streamers interested only in high viewership games or do they want game volume? Which path will drive more new subscribers, lower churn, etc.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Another player could be Paramount+/Skydance for Big12 Media Rights.

They already sub-license football and men's/women's hoops. Feel like they are doing a test run evaluating college sports with an eye for being a bigger player in 2030+.

But agree, it will be interesting to see when 2030 arrives, are streamers interested only in high viewership games or do they want game volume? Which path will drive more new subscribers, lower churn, etc.

With Redbird having 22.5% of voting rights in paramount, it seems that’s what our play is to at the very least, prevent a 2023 situation in which the market was whatever ESPN wanted it to be

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Among many other prevailing theories thrown out here that I reject as false, I question the notion streamers are positioned to be real players in future sports television rights.

None seem to have an appetite to be a primary rights holder. Only one has rights to recurring regular season and playoff games, Amazon Prime.

I will continue to bang the drum sports media rights are a bubble close to bursting

 

[FinalFourCy]

Among many other prevailing theories thrown out here that I reject as false, I question the notion streamers are positioned to be real players in future sports television rights.

None seem to have an appetite to be a primary rights holder. Only one has rights to recurring regular season and playoff games, Amazon Prime.

I will continue to bang the drum sports media rights are a bubble close to bursting

Even if it is close to bursting, some will come out of the bubble like Google, others will be Ask Jeeves

It’s not the P2 and their partners that will be a casualty of the bubble bursting. Arguably, preparing for the disruption is why consolidation is occurring and we’re essentially getting culled

On the other hand, it is very early to say because a nascent tech like streaming doesn’t yet have full season content, it’s not coming. Unlike linear companies, offtake like Apple and Amazon can justify overpaying for rights as a loss leader. This is a very good thing for non-P2

There’s a reason why Fox is lobbying that the SBA doesn’t include streaming. Tough to compete with buyers that don’t require the profit you do.

 

[Kinch]