Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

Jamie Pollard agrees that Tony Petitti is Fox's puppet based on his comments at today's Tailgate Tour:

On CFP expansion as it relates to the Big Ten and SEC

Well, I think that's the core crux of the issue between the SEC and the Big Ten. And on this particular issue, I'd support the SEC to say the devil's in the details. So why, 24 sounds like a great formula, except you haven't explained any of the details. And as we all know, the details are usually what trip you up. Again, go back to the CSC.

We spent a lot of money creating this organization. And now two of the conferences don't wanna follow what we created. So the worst thing we could do is expand to 24 and then go, well, didn't anybody think of that? Didn't anybody think of that? How about that? So I think you gotta work your way through it.

And on that front, the SEC actually is trying to do that. And the Big Ten is out there for a whole different set of reasons. One of the details that nobody's covering is the fact that the Big Ten's partner is FOX, who doesn't have any cut of the playoff.

So you've gotta ask yourself, does the Big Ten have a conflict of interest about why they're supporting 24? You know, and if they do, then own it. Why don't you just say it? Don't hide behind it. So, you know, some people in this industry need to be a little bit more forthright about what they really stand for.
 
Not completely dead. House version of SCORE was never going to get through the Senate:

And the House is pissed about getting jammed and having to accept the Senate’s version of multiple, higher profile pieces of legislation than the SCORE Act. I’d be shocked if the Senate version even came up for a vote in the House for that reason alone.
 
Not completely dead. House version of SCORE was never going to get through the Senate:

And the Senate version is never getting through the House.

The only way anything meaningful happens is if the 4 league commissioners figure it out. There aren't solutions coming from the outside.

SCORE Act or whatever the Senate version is called was going to have a tough time making it through the courts anyway.
 
The only way anything meaningful happens is if the 4 league commissioners figure it out. There aren't solutions coming from the outside.
Not gonna happen from the 4 commissioners as pointed out here. Fed intervention is unfortunately the only solution:

 
Not gonna happen from the 4 commissioners as pointed out here. Fed intervention is unfortunately the only solution:

I don't think it's going to happen either but that's the only way that we can have real change.

The CSC was doomed from the start, partly because they didn't give it enough teeth even if people were following the rules and mainly because the courts were going to strike it down if it ever truly got challenged.

We're 10 years away from college sports basically being dead outside of the Top 25-30 athletic departments. People will undoubtedly still watch, TV will still undoubtedly pay huge money to get it on their networks and those 25-30 fan bases will still pour in money at a ferocious pace but at it's core, it'll be inferior pro sports that just happens to be wearing the right laundry for giant egos to have their measuring contest.
 
I don't think it's going to happen either but that's the only way that we can have real change.

The CSC was doomed from the start, partly because they didn't give it enough teeth even if people were following the rules and mainly because the courts were going to strike it down if it ever truly got challenged.

We're 10 years away from college sports basically being dead outside of the Top 25-30 athletic departments. People will undoubtedly still watch, TV will still undoubtedly pay huge money to get it on their networks and those 25-30 fan bases will still pour in money at a ferocious pace but at it's core, it'll be inferior pro sports that just happens to be wearing the right laundry for giant egos to have their measuring contest.
I think we’re actually 5 years away from this. The rest of the big 12 commissioners have to be wanting to strangle Jamie at this point. TV contracts are the driving force keeping these programs running. Yormark doesn’t want to go into negotiations with no Big Ten/SEC tie ins. It’s basically the G-League for football at that point.
 
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A great effort of wishcasting though

Siloed conference CBAs, although I’m rooting for investors to come in and clean things up
"ya know, we're really tryin' so hard to get this thing passed, Cody. We got soooo close this time! But we just gonna need some more millions of dollars in our 'campaign fund' to keep workin' on it. Can I count on your continued $upport, Cody?"
 
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20 would be absolutely awesome for us.

48 would be absolute worst case scenario. Even if we made the cut.
What conference is going to take us? Big 10 would’ve done it already by now. We don’t carry enough value where it matters and that’s football.
 
What conference is going to take us? Big 10 would’ve done it already by now. We don’t carry enough value where it matters and that’s football.
If there’s a 48 school super league, conferences probably go away and media entities draft the most valuable properties.

We’re probably hovering right around there. So we’d other be in the Super League to be a punching bag, or we’d one of the first not to make it and play in a second class with none of our historic rivals/opponents. Both of those options blow goats and would be hopeless situations.
 
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I don't think it's going to happen either but that's the only way that we can have real change.

The CSC was doomed from the start, partly because they didn't give it enough teeth even if people were following the rules and mainly because the courts were going to strike it down if it ever truly got challenged.

We're 10 years away from college sports basically being dead outside of the Top 25-30 athletic departments. People will undoubtedly still watch, TV will still undoubtedly pay huge money to get it on their networks and those 25-30 fan bases will still pour in money at a ferocious pace but at it's core, it'll be inferior pro sports that just happens to be wearing the right laundry for giant egos to have their measuring contest.


Unfortunately it’ll thrive if consolidated slowly


Next step is expanding P2, suffocating everyone else, while formally still same level (using berths to expanded CFP they control as social capital subsidy)

It’ll be closer to top 48. With pay to play, portal, and expanded CFP leading to more parity, with more IUs happening.

After a decade, they separate in football, and many of the 20-24 schools left out will already have either a secondary team in P2 or still hate watch.

The casual fan, which is significant, already wants this- consolidation of biggest brands in order to have big brands matchups. That’s why ratings have been good with emergence of P2, And which is why networks are doing this.
 
Unfortunately it’ll thrive if consolidated slowly


Next step is expanding P2, suffocating everyone else, while formally still same level (using berths to expanded CFP they control as social capital subsidy)

It’ll be closer to top 48. With pay to play, portal, and expanded CFP, more parity, and a lot more IUs will happen.

After a decade, they separate in football, and many of the 20-24 schools left out will already have either a secondary team in P2 or still hate watch.

The casual fan, which is significant, already wants this- consolidation of biggest brands in order to have big brands matchups. That’s why ratings have been good with emergence of P2, And which is why networks are doing this.
I wouldn’t have thought they would ever consider leaving for any sport other than football but this article yesterday says it’s at least being considered.




As it turns out, SEC and Big Ten leaders have been exploring a separation from the NCAA to operate their own governance system, enforcement arm and perhaps even only holding intraconference competition only. It’s a way to set and enforce their own rules and potentially evade antitrust challenges considering their membership size. The group’s size (16 schools) may make it more efficient to bargain with players, too — a concept with growing support, as detailed last summer.

None of this is easy.

The SEC, like all defendants in the House settlement, remains obligated for a portion of the $2.4 billion in backpay as well as attorney fees. That’s not the half of it. A breakaway may include increasing conference staff, hiring out or operating an enforcement arm and, potentially, committing political suicide: ending participation in national competition and championships.

In fact, in addressing the breakaway topic in January, NCAA president Charlie Baker pointed to the potential impact of national competition and championships such as the NCAA tournament and College Football Playoff.

“The big question mark on some of this is, ‘Can you create a national championship if you don’t have some framework on how people are engaged?’” he asked then.
 
If there’s a 48 school super league, conferences probably go away and media entities draft the most valuable properties.

We’re probably hovering right around there. So we’d other be in the Super League to be a punching bag, or we’d one of the first not to make it and play in a second class with none of our historic rivals/opponents. Both of those options blow goats and would be hopeless situations.
Pollard trashing the conferences that would be our lifeline if there would be a separation pretty much puts an end to our hopes of getting an invite. It wasn’t going to happen anyways and Pollard knows that.

Basically any school that gets left out is crewed.
 
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Unfortunately it’ll thrive if consolidated slowly


Next step is expanding P2, suffocating everyone else, while formally still same level (using berths to expanded CFP they control as social capital subsidy)

It’ll be closer to top 48. With pay to play, portal, and expanded CFP leading to more parity, with more IUs happening.

After a decade, they separate in football, and many of the 20-24 schools left out will already have either a secondary team in P2 or still hate watch.

The casual fan, which is significant, already wants this- consolidation of biggest brands in order to have big brands matchups. That’s why ratings have been good with emergence of P2, And which is why networks are doing this.
This is a major flaw in their thinking.

People will tune out, and they will lose eyeballs from schools that they currently are paying very little to, but nominally allowing access to. When they start saying telling multiple fanbases that put 60,000 people in a stadium that they don't even get to try and compete, they will absolutely lose interest, viewership, and ad dollars. Oklahoma State fans aren't going to become OU fans. We aren't going to become Iowa fans. VA Tech fans aren't going to become UVA fans. So on and so forth. The schools they kick out of D1 aren't going to keep watching that level of the sport.

If it goes to 48, it won't stay there long, and it won't be equal revenue sharing with greater parity. The top 20ish schools will demand and receive the lion's share of the revenue and schools 21-48 would be there to just say "we're big time" while they win 3 games every year.

If this is all about maximizing brand matchups, it will get down to 16-20 schools in one conference that only play each other and a second league that's made up of basically the entire ACC and Big 12, plus the non-blue bloods of the SEC and Big 10. That would actually be ok with me.
 
I wouldn’t have thought they would ever consider leaving for any sport other than football but this article yesterday says it’s at least being considered.




As it turns out, SEC and Big Ten leaders have been exploring a separation from the NCAA to operate their own governance system, enforcement arm and perhaps even only holding intraconference competition only. It’s a way to set and enforce their own rules and potentially evade antitrust challenges considering their membership size. The group’s size (16 schools) may make it more efficient to bargain with players, too — a concept with growing support, as detailed last summer.

None of this is easy.

The SEC, like all defendants in the House settlement, remains obligated for a portion of the $2.4 billion in backpay as well as attorney fees. That’s not the half of it. A breakaway may include increasing conference staff, hiring out or operating an enforcement arm and, potentially, committing political suicide: ending participation in national competition and championships.

In fact, in addressing the breakaway topic in January, NCAA president Charlie Baker pointed to the potential impact of national competition and championships such as the NCAA tournament and College Football Playoff.

“The big question mark on some of this is, ‘Can you create a national championship if you don’t have some framework on how people are engaged?’” he asked then.




Of course they are “considering it”

The main leverage non-P2 has is the headache of the other sports. The P2 is going to promote that isn’t a big issue, and hopefully get capitulation from everyone


And it probably isn’t insurmountable. The P2 can align with non-football schools. For example, invite top basketball only conferences like Big East to their basketball postseason
 
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