Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[loyalsons4evertrue]

If that MAC school could also move to P2, perhaps

Unfortunately way too much weight is already given to playing in the P2

We’re also diminishing the elite job by the IU staff. It wasn’t that expensive of a roster, particularly in 2024. How did their roster cost compared to the other playoff teams? Elite player evaluation, coaching, and the benefit of the doubt of playing in the P2

Very much this. IU is definitely a wealthy school and I'm sure following the 2024 season, they had an uptick in donor contributions toward NIL and having Mark Cuban obviously helps BUT the coaching and evaluation and development of the talent Cignetti got is what got them a national championship.

Every team Indiana beat in the CFP had more talent on paper than them.

Think about how many times Texas (who always had the most talent other than OU in the Big 12) got beat by Iowa State, West Virginia, K-State, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor over the last decade or so. Talent can only get you so far...coaching matters.

 

[loyalsons4evertrue]

As long as there's a G6 spot in the playoff, what I said stands. If a multi-billionaire was a fan of a mid-major they could absolutely prop them up in spite of the smaller TV pay off.

Yes, elite coaching matters too. Unlimited funds can help procure an elite coach.

I'm just saying that access to insane money can allow an also-ran to quickly climb the ladder if they make good decisions with that money.

I often think about how lucky the University of Oregon is for Phil Knight. Oregon (the state) has next to nothing when it comes to the in-state talent, but since Oregon/Nike go hand in hand, they not only have a national brand, their affiliation with Nike single handedly got them an invite to the Big Ten. And you go 45 miles up the road to Corvallis and it's the complete opposite situation.

 

[FinalFourCy]

No I'm not talking sellouts vs. Big10 money.

I am saying IU has a lot of bandwagon football fans because of the last 2 years. If Cignetti starts going 8-4, some of those fans go away. And if 6 years from now the Hoosiers are a 6-6 type team, they'll struggle to attract 40k fans.

So, are you asking whether they can consistently draw sellouts good/great crowds?

My apologies, I thought you were talking about sustaining success.

Why does attendance matter? It doesn’t really matter to success

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Can we wait a few more years before we crown Indiana as the next Alabama and Cignetti as the next Saban? What they have done the past couple of years is remarkable, but even with plenty of NIL money 247 has their 2026 recruiting class ranked at #32 in the country. Cignetti is 64 years old, and has not won a title, is he going to be coaching in another 5 to 10 years? He also won with pretty much the same group of players, the past couple of years, well those players are now gone, can he bring in another group of players to replace what he lost. 247 does have them ranking #9 in portal players, with 17 brought in.

 

[isucy86]

So you’re comment about sustaining was in regards to sustaining attendance?

My apologies, I thought you were talking about sustaining success.

Why does attendance matter? It doesn’t really matter to success

I was talking about sustaining on field success.

But, attendance is relevant as a gauge of overall fan interest. And ticket/donor club revenue serves as an annuity to fund annual athletic department budget. Much better to draw 100k fans vs. 70k. And much, much better to draw 70k vs. 40k.

Big donors don't give to NIL, AD if they aren't fans first. Even big donors aren't going to fall over each other to donate NIL for 6-6 teams.

 

[Gonzo]

Can we wait a few more years before we crown Indiana as the next Alabama and Cignetti as the next Saban? What they have done the past couple of years is remarkable, but even with plenty of NIL money 247 has their 2026 recruiting class ranked at #32 in the country. Cignetti is 64 years old, and has not won a title, is he going to be coaching in another 5 to 10 years? He also won with pretty much the same group of players, the past couple of years, well those players are not gone, can he bring in another group of players to replace what he lost. 247 does have them ranking #9 in portal players, with 17 brought in.

Meh, you could probably throw the class ranking #s out with Cig, I think he's a next-level talent and personnel evaluator who knows exactly the type of player he needs to make the team better, regardless of where 247 has them ranked. I'd be willing to bet the recruiting class rankings from last year's team probably weren't super impressive. And they walked through an Alabama team chock full of 5* guys.

**EDIT** - Here's a video I found that has him talking about his approach to recruiting, starts around the 6:45 mark.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Attendance is relevant as a gauge of overall fan interest. And ticket/donor club revenue serves as an annuity to fund annual athletic department budget. Much better to draw 100k fans vs. 70k. And much, much better to draw 70k vs. 40k.

Big donors don't give to NIL, AD if they aren't fans first. Even big donors aren't going to fall over each other to donate NIL for 6-6 teams.

Attendance isn’t important to success. IU just proved that. They weren’t coming off great attendance prior to this run. Winning came first.

It isn’t even a sole measure of revenue, given the increased importance of premium ticket sales and seat licenses more than attendance itself. The P2 paycheck and IU’s incredibly deep pool of wealthy donors means attendance is not material to success, although will follow.

It’s a different era for most P2s. It’s more like the NFL in which franchises can win regardless of home attendance, particularly ones like IU with a deep bench of donors

For those outside the P2 with weak donor capacity, attendance is still very important

 

[loyalsons4evertrue]

Attendance isn’t important to success. IU just proved that. They weren’t coming off great attendance prior to this run. Winning came first.

It isn’t even a sole measure of revenue, given the increased importance of premium ticket sales and seat licenses more than attendance itself. The P2 paycheck and IU’s incredibly deep pool of wealthy donors means attendance is not material to success, although will follow.

It’s a different era for most P2s. It’s more like the NFL in which franchises can win regardless of home attendance, particularly ones like IU with a deep bench of donors

For those outside the P2 with weak donor capacity, attendance is still very important

To add to this, there's literally no reason Northwestern can't be like a Notre Dame. They are in the Big Ten, have very wealthy alumni who are capable of bankrolling a roster with great talent. Their institution just has a sole focus on academics (which isn't a bad thing by the way).

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Can we wait a few more years before we crown Indiana as the next Alabama and Cignetti as the next Saban? What they have done the past couple of years is remarkable, but even with plenty of NIL money 247 has their 2026 recruiting class ranked at #32 in the country. Cignetti is 64 years old, and has not won a title, is he going to be coaching in another 5 to 10 years? He also won with pretty much the same group of players, the past couple of years, well those players are now gone, can he bring in another group of players to replace what he lost. 247 does have them ranking #9 in portal players, with 17 brought in.

He's 46-6 at the FBS level with a team in transition and a program that was ******* for 60 years.

I'd say he belongs in that conversation. He's not doing this at Michigan State, LSU and Alabama like Saban was.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

He's 46-6 at the FBS level with a team in transition and a program that was ******* for 60 years.

I'd say he belongs in that conversation. He's not doing this at Michigan State, LSU and Alabama like Saban was.

At James Madison he was 52-9 and at Indiana he is 27-2, not sure why you got he only lost 6 games over that span. He has been great, now let's see him do it for the next 3 to 5 years.

Curt Cignetti - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[1UNI2ISU]

At James Madison he was 52-9 and at Indiana he is 27-2, not sure why you got he only lost 6 games over that span. He has been great, now let's see him do it for the next 3 to 5 years.

Curt Cignetti - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

First 3 years at Madison were in the FCS.

He's 46-6 as an FBS HC.

 

[isucy86]

Attendance isn’t important to success. IU just proved that. They weren’t coming off great attendance prior to this run. Winning came first.

It isn’t even a sole measure of revenue, given the increased importance of premium ticket sales and seat licenses more than attendance itself. The P2 paycheck and IU’s incredibly deep pool of wealthy donors means attendance is not material to success, although will follow.

It’s a different era for most P2s. It’s more like the NFL in which franchises can win regardless of home attendance, particularly ones like IU with a deep bench of donors

For those outside the P2 with weak donor capacity, attendance is still very important

IU's rise from mediocrity (at best) to elite success over the last couple years is very much an exception. And it's been more about Cignetti than money. They caught ligtning in a bottle. But money matters for consistent, long term success.

You keep saying IU has a deep bench of donors. Who are those folks besides Cuban? They have always had those same donors, but most weren't writing big checks for football until the last 18 months. If IU is a 6-8 win team vs. 12 win team, a lot of that money goes away.

Attendance is important because it gives OSU, Penn State and Michigan a significant revenue advantage over the rest of the Big10. Having 80k+ people in the football stadium is not only about ticket, donor club revenue- it's also about corporate sponsors lining up to pay to promote their goods and services. The top 3 Big10 schools make around $100M more annually than most other Big10 teams, that gives them a lot of flexibility in running their athletic department.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Outside of the Cali schools move I’ve been pretty accurate on here but I did say not a high degree of confidence on this one.

I’d be shocked if any were announced in 2028 like you are thinking

That’s a pretty big miss. Also BIG acceptance of NIL/pay to play, which is crazy to think now.ACC not being ironclad.

Regardless, why have you thought for a couple years it would cool? I suppose the elites may see they’re already subsidizing many schools, and decide to go unequal revenue sharing. But to historically that tends to lead to movement

The ACC settlement is bullish more moves before 2032. The intentional alignment of all postseason tv deals is as well. More change to the media industry revenue mechanisms, specifically sports media, is bullish movement. The NFL eating up a bunch of cash is cause for the cost savings motives behind recent consolidation. The prisoners dilemma between conferences is a catalyst

 

[FriendlySpartan]

That’s a pretty big miss. Also BIG acceptance of NIL/pay to play, which is crazy to think now.ACC not being ironclad.

Regardless, why have you thought for a couple years it would cool? I suppose the elites may see they’re already subsidizing many schools, and decide to go unequal revenue sharing. But to historically that tends to lead to movement

The ACC settlement is bullish more moves before 2032. The intentional alignment of all postseason tv deals is as well. More change to the media industry revenue mechanisms, specifically sports media, is bullish movement. The NFL eating up a bunch of cash is cause for the cost savings motives behind recent consolidation. The prisoners dilemma between conferences is a catalyst

Wait what? When did I say the big ten wouldn’t do NIL? I legit made a thread on this board urging ISU to start a collective a year before it happens and got dumbed down saying that’s not how college sports work and would never happen at ISU. And I made that thread deliberately because so many big ten schools were already getting them running. I said players wouldn’t be employees which still holds true

Also I did always say ACC was ironclad and they haven’t seen any losses so that’s another right point. You sure you aren’t confusing me with someone else?

I think we could see realignment hold its current place because there is zero upside for the P2 to add a Miami or UNC. It’s unlikely to increase media payouts across the board and they are just more travel outliers. I guess if we had a situation where they signed on for pennies on the dollar then that’s always possible but without them taking a major backseat for media payouts there isn’t a school outside of Notre Dame that makes sense.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Wait what? When did I say the big ten wouldn’t do NIL? I legit made a thread on this board urging ISU to start a collective a year before it happens and got dumbed down saying that’s not how college sports work and would never happen at ISU. And I made that thread deliberately because so many big ten schools were already getting them running. I said players wouldn’t be employees which still holds true

Also I did always say ACC was ironclad and they haven’t seen any losses so that’s another right point. You sure you aren’t confusing me with someone else?

I think we could see realignment hold its current place because there is zero upside for the P2 to add a Miami or UNC. It’s unlikely to increase media payouts across the board and they are just more travel outliers. I guess if we had a situation where they signed on for pennies on the dollar then that’s always possible but without them taking a major backseat for media payouts there isn’t a school outside of Notre Dame that makes sense.

Very true, but how much does some of the teams currently in the B10 really bring into the coffers of the league? If the b10 and SEC try to break away they are going to be hampered by leaving programs out that bring more revenue in than some of the teams currently in the league.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Very true, but how much does of the teams currently in the B10 really bring into the coffers of the league? If the b10 and SEC try to break away they are going to be hampered by leaving programs out that bring more revenue in than some of the teams currently in the league.

I don’t see a breakaway happening in the next 5 years (or by the next media deal) because I’ve never seen a super league happening. If the whole P4 broke away I could see that happening but not just the P2

 

[FinalFourCy]

Wait what? When did I say the big ten wouldn’t do NIL? I legit made a thread on this board urging ISU to start a collective a year before it happens and got dumbed down saying that’s not how college sports work and would never happen at ISU. And I made that thread deliberately because so many big ten schools were already getting them running. I said players wouldn’t be employees which still holds true

Also I did always say ACC was ironclad and they haven’t seen any losses so that’s another right point. You sure you aren’t confusing me with someone else?

I think we could see realignment hold its current place because there is zero upside for the P2 to add a Miami or UNC. It’s unlikely to increase media payouts across the board and they are just more travel outliers. I guess if we had a situation where they signed on for pennies on the dollar then that’s always possible but without them taking a major backseat for media payouts there isn’t a school outside of Notre Dame that makes sense.

In 2021. You thought the BIG would be against pay to play.

As proven by the settlement and result path out, the ACC wasn’t ironclad and prohibitive to schools leaving early. It’s coming.

The new (expanded) CFP deal and new BIG deals in conjunction with unequal revenue sharing combined represent a way to add schools. Adding will allow P2 to get more CFP, while appreciation in rates allows the per team payout to increase even if adding teams not at value (albeit represent an opportunity cost). This occurred with usc and ucla being added, as USC alone would have resulted in a bigger average payout

The question is does the BIG pull a surprise like OUT, or do they grab known targets like ACC schools

 

[FriendlySpartan]

In 2021. You thought the BIG would be against pay to play.

As proven by the settlement and result path out, the ACC wasn’t ironclad and prohibitive to schools leaving early. It’s coming.

The new (expanded) CFP deal and new BIG deals in conjunction with unequal revenue sharing combined represent a way to add schools. Adding will allow P2 to get more CFP, while appreciation in rates allows the per team payout to increase even if adding teams not at value (albeit represent an opportunity cost). This occurred with usc and ucla being added, as USC alone would have resulted in a bigger average payout

The question is does the BIG pull a surprise like OUT, or do they grab known targets like ACC schools

Not sure about what was said 5 years ago but I’m pretty sure I was talking about employee status and schools directly paying employees. I was alway for NIL as evidenced by my thread I made on collectives in 2021z

Weird to say about the ACC since the schools will play out the full contract to the duration of their media deal. Call it iron clad or not but the result is the exact same which is the whole point.

Disagree on that being a way to add schools or make it necessary to do so as built in media unequal revenue share isn’t happening and the P2 (unfortunately) already has control of bids and future playoff decisions. There just isn’t a need or want to add more teams, the next media deals will already be huge and none of the teams in the ACC move the needle enough unless ND is making a move with them.

If ND comes then all bets are off

 

[FinalFourCy]

Hmm, moving to a neutral site

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Hmm, moving to a neutral site

The Duke Basketball-Amazon deal just opened up a whole new loophole...