Possible huge snow storm next week?

[FDWxMan]

Except for the consequences of being wrong

Sigh.

I addressed that difference in another post. Let me work with the same degree of certainty in variables engineers get and forecasts would be a lot better.

Take a bunch of measurable certainty from engineers and things won't work so hot. It's not apples to apples.

Coursework was all I was speaking to.

 

[CascadeClone]

I think I'll pull out of the area before that thing leaves white stuff everywhere

Thanks for calling everyone, we have a winner.

 

[NorthCyd]

PJ Hermann? Although I think a lot of different profs used the same thing.

Bill Simpkins, hydrogeologist.

 

[AirWalke]

Except for the consequences of being wrong

Like I've always said, better pack up the meteorology profession. They're not right 100% of the time, so better to just be surprised by storms when they happen.

 

[Dopey]

Sigh.

I addressed that difference in another post. Let me work with the same degree of certainty in variables engineers get and forecasts would be a lot better.

Take a bunch of measurable certainty from engineers and things won't work so hot. It's not apples to apples.

Coursework was all I was speaking to.

Like I've always said, better pack up the meteorology profession. They're not right 100% of the time, so better to just be surprised by storms when they happen.

Oh don't get so fired up. Everyone loves ******** about the weather. You guys are like barbers. Job security 4 lyfe.

 

[Jer]

Maybe instead of ******** about this we could just get updated estimates for the metro?

 

[ClonesTwentyOne]

Maybe instead of ******** about this we could just get updated estimates for the metro?

From the models I've seen today they still are saying 11-16 inches

 

[Jer]

Thank you

 

[AirWalke]

Oh don't get so fired up. Everyone loves ******** about the weather. You guys are like barbers. Job security 4 lyfe.

Not a meteorologist. I can only sympathize.

 

[cytheguy]

Just read on KCCI that it'll be more of a rain/snow mix in central Iowa with heaviest snow in northern and western Iowa. So it IS shifting more to the north?

 

[ClonesTwentyOne]

Just read on KCCI that it'll be more of a rain/snow mix in central Iowa with heaviest snow in northern and western Iowa. So it IS shifting more to the north?

So Des Moines will be getting a foot of sleet/snow? That's even worse

 

[cmjh10]

So, getting directly to the point, can I have all of your stuff since you are all going to die?

Do you have some nice stuff to make it worth my while coming down to dig it out?

You can have my tv

 

[dahliaclone]

It might be shifting north. But the weather people on tv up here in the Twin Cities are still aloof, saying we won't get anything. Yet the latest GFS model from this afternoon says we are to get 12 inches. So we're either getting nothing...or a foot. Prepare accordingly. :-\

 

[ClonesTwentyOne]

So what I don't understand is all of these other models are showing a foot of just snow with no rain mixed in, but kcci says mostly rain and sleet. How can two weather stations/models be so different?

 

[Gunnerclone]

The Winter Storm watches put out by NWS seem to support the model that was posted earlier.

 

[chuckd4735]

So what I don't understand is all of these other models are showing a foot of just snow with no rain mixed in, but kcci says mostly rain and sleet. How can two weather stations/models be so different?

You should probably go through this thread and read everything FDWXman is saying. Pretty obvious temps are going to be a big factor with the warm-up we have going on right now. KC is calling for over an inch of precep, but less than an inch of snow as it is supposed to be 40 degrees all day Tuesday down here.

 

[ClonesTwentyOne]

Ed Wilson predicting around 9 inches with no rain or sleet in Des Moines

 

[FDWxMan]

So what I don't understand is all of these other models are showing a foot of just snow with no rain mixed in, but kcci says mostly rain and sleet. How can two weather stations/models be so different?

Because there is not really any real scientific rationale to trust a model output of snow fall totals 5 to 8 days out, that is over the Pacific Ocean not being measured in any meaningful way. Trends? Ok. Specifics? It's lala land. Models flip flop like crazy in such situations.

Storm comes on shore Sunday night. Monday 0z (6pm Sun) and particularly Monday 12Z (6am) model runs will be were they start to get more useful.

 

[GrindingAway]

Sigh.

I addressed that difference in another post. Let me work with the same degree of certainty in variables engineers get and forecasts would be a lot better.

Take a bunch of measurable certainty from engineers and things won't work so hot. It's not apples to apples.

Coursework was all I was speaking to.

Just wanted to say as an engineer that spent many years doing dynamic systems modelling I find the weather model discussions here really interesting and almost wish I had taken a few classes at Iowa state.

Thanks to the contributions from the meteorologists

 

[BoxsterCy]

It might be shifting north. But the weather people on tv up here in the Twin Cities are still aloof, saying we won't get anything. Yet the latest GFS model from this afternoon says we are to get 12 inches. So we're either getting nothing...or a foot. Prepare accordingly. :-\

Meh, NWS is going with just enough snow here to make my trip to Iowa to collect "my" stuff a little more difficult. Sticking with Snow Snoopy's "they are all going to die" prediction.