Possible huge snow storm next week?

[bosco]

Like Bawbie said the meteorologists predictions are usually lower than the models for these big storms. What I don't get (and maybe this is what you actually meant) is why the programmers wouldn't calibrate the computer models to represent what they really think will happen.

Then what would people like FDwxman do?

 

[Wesley]

Am I the only person who just doesn't care about "weather events"? News hypes storms so much the past 10 years it's hard to take anything seriously anymore.

Kayla will be your downfall.

 

[bluestarcyclone]

Current 06z gfs on instantweathermaps

12z NAM instantweathermaps through 6pm tues (only goes 84 hours out), submitted without comment.

 

[SplitIdentity]

Not a lot of girth.

 

[Wesley]

Not a lot of girth.

Moving south to KU.

 

[NorthCyd]

National weather service says there may be the potential for thundersnow!

[video=youtube;PdRWGMyeSYY]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdRWGMyeSYY[/video]

 

[bluestarcyclone]

Moving south to KU.

 

[cyinne]

I think this would be more representative of a meteorologist predicting a bunch of snow and then it is sunny outside instead.

By by all accounts it will snow significantly somewhere, nailing it down is a complete crapshoot.

 

[DFWClone]

I'm in St. Joseph MO. Looks like we'll either get a foot of snow or 3 inches of snow. It will be interesting.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Not a lot of girth.

Looks like just the tip in IA. Wisconsin could get splattered.

 

[BoxsterCy]

So, getting directly to the point, can I have all of your stuff since you are all going to die?

Do you have some nice stuff to make it worth my while coming down to dig it out?

 

[GrindingAway]

12z NAM instantweathermaps through 6pm tues (only goes 84 hours out), submitted without comment.

I think I'll pull out of the area before that thing leaves white stuff everywhere

 

[FDWxMan]

I get what you're saying (to a degree). But if all that is true, why don't meteorologists take all of that that they learn from past storms & apply it to their new forecasts?

For instance, if 90% of previous forecasted winter storms have produced 50% of forecasted amounts, why not adjust today's projections down to account for the inevitable error?

We do. What you're seeing in these threads are not "forecasts".

They're raw model output that the public never used to see. Now it gets spread around on social media with no explanation of what you're actually looking at and people in turn misattribute it to your local meteorologist hyping the crap out of it.

 

[FDWxMan]

Like Bawbie said the meteorologists predictions are usually lower than the models for these big storms. What I don't get (and maybe this is what you actually meant) is why the programmers wouldn't calibrate the computer models to represent what they really think will happen.

Well, I've grossly oversimplified some of the issues, so basically it isn't that easy.

Also, you have to remember how ridiculously undersampled the atmosphere is. How well of a representation of what's going on are there models even starting from.

For instance, there are only 102 weather balloon launch sites in the US. 102 points where the atmosphere is being sampled from the ground up.

And the GFS is a global model. Not a lot of obs taken in the middle of the ocean.

It's not like engineering and building a bridge. Imagine if you had to build a bridge, but you don't actually know for sure what kind of load the beams are rated for, and your don't know what kind/how much traffic will be on it, etc.

Lots of unknown variables that are basically being estimated to even run the model.

 

[BoxsterCy]

But what's the Vegas line on this? :smile:

And nothing FDWxMan says changes anything. You are all going to die and I am coming south to claim your stuff.

And don't worry, if your pets survive I will do my best to find them new homes in Minnesota.

 

[FDWxMan]

I should have definitely been a meteorologist rather than an engineer.

Haha, you'd be surprised how close the programs are. Meteorology is basically 4 years of thermo and fluid dynamics.

 

[CYEATHAWK]

Lots of unknown variables that are basically being estimated to even run the model.

Meteorology is basically 4 years of thermo and fluid dynamics.

Ah.........an educated guess. :tongue:

 

[NorthCyd]

Ah.........an educated guess. :tongue:

My prof refered to is as "SWAG", scientific wild *** guess.

 

[Dopey]

Haha, you'd be surprised how close the programs are. Meteorology is basically 4 years of thermo and fluid dynamics.

Except for the consequences of being wrong

 

[CascadeClone]

My prof refered to is as "SWAG", scientific wild *** guess.

PJ Hermann? Although I think a lot of different profs used the same thing.