Texas is basically a lock to the Sugar Bowl, win or lose.
Official Bowl Watch thread
- Thread starter Gunnerclone
- Start date
Then we would drop to Texas against probably Auburn which would be great
The Oklahoma wins, Georgia wins, Alabama drops to 4th, Oklahoma to Sugar, Texas to Alamo, and West Virginia to Orlando scenario has to be more than a 0% chance doesn't it?
Yes. I think Georgia is going to play Bama a lot tougher than most expect. Wouldn't shock me if they beat them. Think UGA is peaking right now.
Syracuse blows as an institution (based solely on my disdain for their basketball coach).
A ranked ACC school beats Memphis, Tulsa, Miami (OH), or Boise State.
Syracuse runs a spread offense too. They’d be a great matchup for ISU’s defense.
I am surprised that people are entertaining the thought that Alabama will not make the playoff. If they lose to Georgia they will have one loss like the teams they would be competing for for the #4 slot. Up to this point they have absolutely dismantled opponents. Why shouldn't they still be in? I guess you could make the case if they lose 59-0 but is that really a possibility?
Frankly, I wouldn't have any problem with a one loss Alabama taking that #4 spot - except for it sucking for the Big 12...
Frankly, I wouldn't have any problem with a one loss Alabama taking that #4 spot - except for it sucking for the Big 12...
My guess, in this scenario, would be that you would be comparing Alabama and Oklahoma's resumes, if OU wins. Does Alabama have a better resume if their best win is against LSU and the only top tier team they played would be a loss against Georgia? OU has 9 conference games and 10 P5 games. With one of the other non P5 game coming against a ranked Army team. Alabama has 8 conference games and 9 total P5 games. Their losses would be similar, except OU would have avenged their only loss. They would have similar "good wins" with OU having 2 against WVU and Texas and Bama having 1 against LSU. So basically OU's schedule would have to be a higher SOS and you would think a higher SOR. I am not saying I think that Alabama would not get in at #4, I think they will. I am saying that their resumes would actually suggest OU, but the "eye test" would say Alabama. It would be a closer argument than people initially think.
For what it is worth, a San Antonio station has the following on their website:
- #14 Texas: The Longhorns will head to the Allstate Sugar Bowl if they beat #5 Oklahoma on Saturday in the Big 12 Championship. Texas will also head to New Orleans if they lose to a Sooners squad that is selected to the CFP semifinals. If Oklahoma wins and is not in the Top 4, Texas will be available to the Valero Alamo Bowl.
- #16 West Virginia: Since the Sugar Bowl is committed to either Oklahoma or Texas, West Virginia would be available to make its first trip to San Antonio.
- #23 Iowa State: The Cyclones who play this Saturday against Drake will also be on the board when the Valero Alamo Bowl makes their Big 12 selection.
Not sure how this squares with Texas "having" to go to the Sugar Bowl.
That's exactly the scenario. If OU wins but is not in the playoffs then Texas will NOT be in a NY6 and will be in the Alamo. UGA would need to beat Bama for this to happen.
Texas only HAS to go to the Sugar bowl if OU is in the playoffs or Texas beats OU. If OU beats Texas but isn't in the playoff then OU is in the Sugar Bowl and Texas is left out of the NY6.
If OU is in the playoff, the Sugar must take B12 runner up. So, worst case scenario is if OU wins but misses the playoff. In that case OU would be in the Sugar Bowl and no other B12 team would make NY6.
If Texas wins, OU won't make playoff, but both OU and Texas (sugar bowl) would be in NY6.
So... easiest / most straight forward path to Alamo/Camping bowl is for Texas to win. If OU wins, you hope they make the playoff.. could/should be as simple as Alabama beating UGA. But, to be sure, we would also want NW to beat tosu.
Would be fun if we made the Alamo Bowl vs. washington. But my guess is that wvu would be picked over us... I hope I am wrong, but I think Grier + Ranking will be a lot to overcome.
For what it's worth, Stewart Mandel (The Athletic) has us in the Camping World Bowl vs. Syracuse... hoping we get NC State if we go to Orlando, but Syracuse is ranked..
https://theathletic.com/678058/2018...ootball-bowl-projections-2/?source=dailyemail
Is there a reason you aren’t counting Alabama’s wins against Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Missouri? All 3 are currently ranked.
Or Oklahoma’s win over Iowa State for that matter.
With all of the NFL prospects electing to skip bowl games, it would be interesting if bowls could start to make players sign intentions to play agreements, or something like that, before selection Sunday. Because I am hearing a lot of Alamo bowl will pick WVU because of Grier, even though we are ranked higher in the conference. What if after the selection he chooses to skip the bowl. The. The bowl would have wished they picked us. Also, you would have schools and coaches telling their star players not to announce that they are going to skip the bowl until after selection Sunday. Th n the bowls may be able to cut the payout to the conferences or something if the agreement is broken without extenuating circumstances.
