***Official 2025 Weather Thread***

So are we all gonna die today, or no? Any chance this dips into central Iowa?

Should I even go to work or just hang out at home with the chainsaw at the ready?

Help interpret please?
No real change, just confirming that the ingredients are largely there. Still expecting a cap to keep things largely in check down this way but if a storm is able to find a hole and break through things will likely get spicey.
 
So - Weather Channel and Ventusky seems to show des Moines not really getting anything. I know anything is possible, but am I missing something? Fully understand that IF something does pop up it has the potential to be a beast.
 
No real change, just confirming that the ingredients are largely there. Still expecting a cap to keep things largely in check down this way but if a storm is able to find a hole and break through things will likely get spicey.
Would the morning rain/cloud cover weaken the cap for the afternoon?
 
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6am HRRR run is actually showing a worse case scenario for central Iowa into Kansas (this is at 8pm).
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7am is also showing more convection mainly in southern Iowa and northwest Missouri but the part heading into Ames/Des Moines gets snuffed out right before it arrives (also at 8pm).

Granted it is one convection-allowing model...
 
Would the morning rain/cloud cover weaken the cap for the afternoon?
It doesn’t take much sun for instability. Last years Greenfield tornado event saw like an hour of sunlight in the afternoon after storms and clouds into mid afternoon
 
As Dr. Gallus always said in our meteorology classes, we don't often get drylines in Iowa, but when we do, they tend to be big tornado days.

That applies to day obviously, but again kind of going back to what I said earlier about positioning, the convergence/trigger on the dryline is the big Q.
 
No real change, just confirming that the ingredients are largely there. Still expecting a cap to keep things largely in check down this way but if a storm is able to find a hole and break through things will likely get spicey.
What is a 'cap'? explain it to me like i am a hawkeye.
 
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I live up in the part of Iowa in what looks like is going to be the "Suck Zone". How likely is this going to happen or how do I figure out if I need to cancel my outdoor activities tonight?