No, peoole have the perception that Shota is terrible because of the long balls, but the fact is he's had one of the lowest WHIP's on the team the last 2 years.
*** Official 2025 Chicago Cubs Thread***
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At this point we have to hope Shota works out his problems and is a more effective pitcher to start the season. I still feel they have to at least get 1 more top end SP because you just don't know when and how effective Steele may be coming off of injury. Plus he likely will be on a pitch and innings count in 2026 too. That's not even factoring in the likelihood that at least 1 starter is likely going to have an IL stint at some point, it happens every year. So the unknown of Steele's availability tied with Shota's struggles to other than Horton the rest of the rotation is not bad but it's not one that is going to have teams dreading to face it either.
There is a saying you can never have too much pitching and adding 1 quality starter to this rotation is still a need IMO. I felt it was going into last season too even without the Steele injury. Not sure I really want to go through possibly the first 2+ months without Steele and using Rea/Assad as your #5 with some of the question marks with how Shota and possibly even Boyd too perform in 2026. You get 1 injury to that group and now both Rea and Assad are your 4 and 5 guys. Assad has had injury issues of his own too at times. I'd rather go into the season where Taillon, Shota, and Boyd are your 3-5 guys and if all are healthy and effective when Steele returns that is a good problem to have on who is the odd man out but odds are someone gets hurt or at least 1 of those guys has early season struggles and the problem will resolve itself when the time comes for Steele to return.
Can’t believe how quickly people turned on Shota this year. He wasn’t fully healthy (maybe he shouldn’t have been out there?) and his track record over the last two years is solid. I’m glad he’s back.
The bulk of his work as a whole over the past 2 years is not bad but 2nd half of the season he got lit up and was basically a liability to use in the playoffs. Gave up 3 HR in 6.2 innings in the playoffs after coming off a horrible September that he gave up 10 HR in 27.2 innings with a 6.51 ERA. From March-June he gave up just 7 total HR in 49.2 innings, from July-September 24 HR in about 95 innings. That's a much higher rate to finish out the season and it wasn't like it was bad luck guys were teeing off on him in situations he needed to get an out and sometimes those HR seem to come when he had trouble on the bases from an untimely walk. Last season he gave up 4 less HR while pitching almost 30 more innings than he did last season.
I hope he rebounds and pitches better in 2026 but the trends are concerning. He's 32 and not a high velocity pitcher. 3.0 WAR last year but 1.5 this year. He had the highest barrel % of any pitcher on the Cubs this year and that includes Ben Brown who was just behind him as 2nd worst. Technically Eli Morgan and Ethan Roberts had the worst but neither were with the big league team much this year to have a big enough sample size to fairly compare. Also out of the regular starters in the rotation he had the highest hard hit% and batter exit velocity so the analytics had him more of a bottom end of the rotation for us not a top 3 guy.
Would have rather used that $22 mil towards a guy that has a little better track record and throws harder as Horton is basically the only guy in the rotation that throws a hard fastball. Last year the Cubs rotation ranked 24th in MLB in average starting pitcher fastball velocity so that is an area that would be nice to improve on instead of 4 of 5 guys in the rotation basically all throw about 91-92ish on their fastball. Ben Brown throws hard but I don't think he's likely going to be a bullpen arm if he can locate his pitches better.
I have no doubt Shota will work his ass off this offseason. But I imagine the cubs pick up someone better than him(Gallen or Cease?) and Shota probably sits in that 4th starter spot.
Horton
Steele
FA add
Shota
Tallion probably or another FA add.
I agree mostly. And I fully support a lockout. A salary cap is needed.
I'm happy with how this played out. The FO still needs to go out and pick up another hard throwing top to mid rotation arm, but you can do much worse than Shota slotting in at the bottom of the rotation. Even for 22M.
Edit: I'd even be ok if they worked out a 2 year deal with a lower AAV. Maybe 2/35-37
Edit: I'd even be ok if they worked out a 2 year deal with a lower AAV. Maybe 2/35-37
It's not going to happen. The owners would have to open their books to get a salary cap and that's never, ever going to happen. It works in the NBA and NFL because of shared media rights and the PAs have full access to ownership financials to they can split an exact percentage to the players.
I'm guessing we end up with a similar system to where we are now that requires small market teams to spend more to get revenue sharing money and some kind of exemption or discount against the tax calculation for teams that re-sign their own players.
I would be fine if a salary cap is implemented, but a salary floor is needed as well.
What doesn't help is that baseball's tv contracts are different based on teams/markets. The NFL consolidated the tv contracts and make it worth much more.
What doesn't help is that baseball's tv contracts are different based on teams/markets. The NFL consolidated the tv contracts and make it worth much more.
I think Shota wasn't the same pitcher once he got injured. That is when his numbers tanked. If he's healthy going into next season, he will be okay.
This reminds me of how poorly the Cubs organization handles injuries. Play guys that are injured and can't figure out why their production drops.
I am aware and even without that the FO has been stingy about spending lately so I am fully expecting another offseason or bargain bin shopping like that last several have been. I do hope though that if there is an area they can make a significant acquisition to increase our chances of competing in 2026 they do it because they have a roster right now with some good cost controlled players that the right pieces could turn this into a contending team fairly easily. They also don't have much committed in payroll past 2026 either with Happ, Suzuki, Hoerner, Taillon, Shota, all not signed past 26. In fact Swanson is the only long term payroll commitment they have on the books that is not an arbitration or pre-arb player so they have payroll flexibility regardless of the CBA to take on 1 or 2 big multiyear deals and still be in good shape. To me this also feels like the perfect time to go all in on some big 1 year deals if they are out there and make sense but I still would not shy away from adding a couple multi-year deals either with how they are currently setup with the long term payroll commitments.
Chicago Cubs Multi-Year Table
Yeah, people forget that he missed 6 weeks also and we don't know how that injury affected him down the stretch.
I wasn't expecting Keller back. Even if he stays in relief he pitched so well this year that he probably will price himself out of the Cubs market especially if he gets multiple years. The Cubs don't like to sign relievers to multi-year deals lately either. If he finds an offer that will pay him starter money then good for him, he deserves it after the season he just had that he should get paid well in either role as he took a gamble on himself on a cheap non-roster deal and he made the most of it.
Tampa Bay Rays Designate Christopher Morel for Assignment - Bleacher Nation
So we basically traded Morel for Paredes who we then traded away with Cam Smith for 1/2 good season of Tucker that has now turned into a compensatory draft pick. The other 2 prospects we traded away were Ty Johnson and Hunter Bigge. Bigge has been decent for the Rays when actually healthy and Johnson is still in. AA.
Someone out there will take a chance on Morel I'm sure as he's still fairly young and has power but he's probably mostly a DH/Bench guy till/if he every starts hitting closer to league average. I don't think the Cubs will be interested in him and I wonder if he may even have to sign a minor league deal somewhere for next year with as bad as his hitting has been. He's been a negative WAR the past 2 seasons.
So we basically traded Morel for Paredes who we then traded away with Cam Smith for 1/2 good season of Tucker that has now turned into a compensatory draft pick. The other 2 prospects we traded away were Ty Johnson and Hunter Bigge. Bigge has been decent for the Rays when actually healthy and Johnson is still in. AA.
Someone out there will take a chance on Morel I'm sure as he's still fairly young and has power but he's probably mostly a DH/Bench guy till/if he every starts hitting closer to league average. I don't think the Cubs will be interested in him and I wonder if he may even have to sign a minor league deal somewhere for next year with as bad as his hitting has been. He's been a negative WAR the past 2 seasons.
IMO it's more about building a Playoff rotation. Sure guys like Taillon, Boyd, Shota and Rea are nice pieces of a regular season rotation, but how many would you want starting a playoff game?
Who would I want going in a playoff game?
- Proven Top Rotation hard thrower
- Horton
- Steele (if he returns to pre-injury form)
- Take one among: Taillon, Shota or Boyd
Especially if the Cubs feel they can get by with Rea ($6.5M), Brown($820k) or Assad ($2M) at the back-end of the rotation.
I think it's time to convert Brown to relief full time. He can max out the fast ball in short stints and that spike curve is devastating when you only see it in one AB.
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