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Sooooo yes and no. The sun and instability really need to increase to get big supercells going. This first line is not going to be a main issue.I'm basically a weather knowledge level 201 instead of 101 but is there just enough moisture/instability already that it doesn't matter that it's that cloudy?


Sooooo yes and no. The sun and instability really need to increase to get big supercells going. This first line is not going to be a main issue.
The HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) is handling it well so far. For reference here is what it was forecasting for 11AM
View attachment 127569
What Reed is referring to is how it is already getting linear which obviously still can produce severe weather but not the big supercells that they like/want.
Here is 5PM. Notice the gap between the lines and how more cellular that second wave is at this point. This is where things could get interesting.
View attachment 127570
Link to current visible satellite showing the clearing getting into SW Iowa.
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GOES-19 - Sector view: Upper Mississippi Valley - GeoColor - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STARwww.star.nesdis.noaa.gov
Tornado warning in Boone and Dallas County but none of the locals have cut in. strange
It's Young and the Restless now. Know your CBS morning lineup!may be more afraid of the gray hairs calling in ******** about the Price is Right getting pre-empted.
It's Young and the Restless now. Know your CBS morning lineup!
I’m in story county thinking there won’t be enough clearing. Looks like it’s comingThe sun coming out here south of Des Moines is a bit ominous knowing what's coming.
Speaking of which … not only am I in a freshly issued tornado watch area (along with the Cedar Rapids NWS radio station being off the air), I’m planning on tacos tonight.
Assuming my home isn’t swept away by Tornadogeddon Lollapalooza 24, of course.