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I use MyRadar for everyday purposes (where's the rain? where's the lightning? where are the watches/warnings?).I pay for RadarScope. Best $9.99 I’ve ever spent. Especially on a day like today with a major outbreak under way.
| U.S. Drought Monitor
droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Still in a moderate drought, although just on the edge. Rivers have been out of their banks for a couple weeks now, Field ponds have shrunk but not disappeared during the same time, lakes are above average levels.......not sure how much more rain it will take to get to just abnormally dry.
Keep in mind that if the rain falls too fast over a short period of time, the water will run off into lakes. rivers. creeks. That doesn't help much with improving drought conditions. The best rains to improve drought conditions are the light to moderate, all day rain events. Those rains will soak into the ground much better than downpours| U.S. Drought Monitor
droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Still in a moderate drought, although just on the edge. Rivers have been out of their banks for a couple weeks now, Field ponds have shrunk but not disappeared during the same time, lakes are above average levels.......not sure how much more rain it will take to get to just abnormally dry.
I think we have kinda forgotten that in a "normal " year it always rains a lot in the spring.
Over the last 14 years or so "normal" has been more like the maximum. Here is a graph I put together averaging rainfall totals from airport data across the state since 2010. Rainfall total on left and percent of normal (34 inches) on right. If you assume normal distribution the odds of only having 2 years in that stretch where we barely reach the mean is pretty darn low. May be time to consider a new "normal" for Iowa.I think we have kinda forgotten that in a "normal " year it always rains a lot in the spring.

Yeah maybe so. Not sure how they calculate "normal". I would think there would be more weight assigned to recent years as opposed to 100 years ago.Over the last 14 years or so "normal" has been more like the maximum. Here is a graph I put together averaging rainfall totals from airport data across the state since 2010. Rainfall total on right and percent of normal (32 inches) on left. If you assume normal distribution the odds of only having 2 years in that stretch where we barely reach the mean is pretty darn low. May be time to consider a new "normal" for Iowa.
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Maybe they're using the climatological average, where they average a 30-year span and update that every decade? I think we just moved into a new 30-year window recently.Yeah maybe so. Not sure how they calculate "normal". I would think there would be more weight assigned to recent years as opposed to 100 years ago.
We are pretty short on accurate, widespread regional data, and it seems that we operate by extrapolating more recent accurate data and then making some assumptions based on what we do know. The "1 in a thousand years" or "1 in 500 years" events could well be much more common that we think.Yeah maybe so. Not sure how they calculate "normal". I would think there would be more weight assigned to recent years as opposed to 100 years ago.
It's true that we have only had really accurate widespread weather data for a relatively short period of time, but the take home message is that relative to that time we have had accurate data the last ten plus years in Iowa have been incredibly dry. Who knows, this year could be a start of a 10 to fifteen year pattern of wet weather, but if current trends hold up its a definite concern.We are pretty short on accurate, widespread regional data, and it seems that we operate by extrapolating more recent accurate data and then making some assumptions based on what we do know. The "1 in a thousand years" or "1 in 500 years" events could well be much more common that we think.
I know, but these ponds aren’t running anywhere.Keep in mind that if the rain falls too fast over a short period of time, the water will run off into lakes. rivers. creeks. That doesn't help much with improving drought conditions. The best rains to improve drought conditions are the light to moderate, all day rain events. Those rains will soak into the ground much better than downpours
I could be mistaken but I thought I read the "normal" for rain, temp, etc. is the average of the previous 5 years, so in effect a floating averageYeah maybe so. Not sure how they calculate "normal". I would think there would be more weight assigned to recent years as opposed to 100 years ago.
We are pretty short on accurate, widespread regional data, and it seems that we operate by extrapolating more recent accurate data and then making some assumptions based on what we do know. The "1 in a thousand years" or "1 in 500 years" events could well be much more common that we think.
No one seems to know for sure. Not saying they aren't doing it that way but a 5 year floating average would seem to be to short a time period.I could be mistaken but I thought I read the "normal" for rain, temp, etc. is the average of the previous 5 years, so in effect a floating average
Yeah maybe so. Not sure how they calculate "normal". I would think there would be more weight assigned to recent years as opposed to 100 years ago.