***Official 2024 Chicago Cubs Thread***
- Thread starter CycloneErik
- Start date
It's that special time of year where Cubs fans get to dream big about all the free agents they'll bring in only to watch the front office give half hearted efforts to signing any of them and instead bringing in a bunch of mediocre players to replace the mediocre players they had last season.
Going to take a shot at some obvious ones that will be cut from the 40 man roster. Also have to factor in they have to add Caissie to the 40 man and anyone else they need to protect from the rule 5 draft
Hendricks - Just feels like it is time to move on, maybe he gets a shot to come back on a minor league deal if he can't find a MLB contract but some team probably will take a chance on him
Alzolay - won't pitch at all next year and with his injury history is not worth protecting, probably gets offered a minor league deal to rehab
Almonte - see above, had TJ surgery and likely out most of 2025
Brewer - a no brainer after how his season ended
Lopez - is a free agent so they could bring him back
Merryweather - I think he's non-tendered as he is out of options and was injured a lot
Smyly - they aren't bringing him back
Keegan Thompson - this one will be interesting on what they do, he shows flashes of being good but he's also out of option and will be 30 next year
Wintergenter - no so reason to tender him a contract
So there are potentially up to 9 pitchers that could be gone/non-tendered
Bethancourt - he's 33 so this will be interesting to see if they non-tender him then look at bringing him back if they still need catching depth. I think they go out and either trade for or sign another catcher to compete with Amaya
Caleb Knight - he's gone
Madrigal - goodbye
Mastrobuoni - still has an option year left so my guy feeling is they hold onto him
Mervis - has an option year left but no path to a role in Chicago so if he is kept likely will look to trade him but I could see them just parting ways with him too
Vazquez - probably is kept but this could be a spot where they do an either/or decision with him and Mastrobuoni where they cut 1 and keep the other
Wisdom - hopefully this is finally the time we part ways with him
Bellinger - adds an open spot if he opts out
Brennen Davis - I think this is the end of the road for him as he can't stay healthy and we have other OF prospects ready to be called up to Chicago. Maybe is back on a minor league deal
Tauchman - I think he probably is back but I kind of hope he is not just because even without Bellinger you still have Caissie and Alcantara in waiting and it also opens up the possibility to go after an OF in free agency or trade that could upgrade the lineup. If Bellinger opts in I think it's more likely they don't tender Tauchman then
So the position players are a little more murky but I think Bethancourt, Knight, Madrigal, Wisdom, Davis, and either Mastrobuoni or Vazquez are not tendered, maybe even Mervis too with Bellinger's option being another spot. At least 6 position players non-tendered and I am going to say at least 8 pitchers with Thompson possibly being a 9th one cut from the 4 man so at least 14 cut and 1 added for sure in Caissie and probably Ben Cowles too puts the 40 man at 36 so I could easily see a few more of the fringe decisions like Thompson and Mervis not being tendered too to get that number down into the lower 30s. Could see Canario moved in a trade to clear another 40 man spot too. My math is off, need to add Brown and Little back to the 40 man too so that puts them at 38 with my projections.
Agree with everything except Tauchman. Ideal 4th OF/PH. You're not going to bring kids up if they're only getting spot starts and PH appearances. Tauchman is a very good PH and can play all 3 spots above average plus he's cheap.
Yeah, I mean I am not against retaining him but at some point you gotta create opportunities for the kids to play too or use them in a trade if you don't. I don't think Caissie has much left to prove at AAA and I would guess Alcantara is going to make the same case next season at AAA as well. At some point you either commit to these guys at the big league level or trade them before their value is wrecked like we already did with Canario and Mervis. Tauchman also will be 34 when the season starts, he's probably already topped out his production ceiling and eventually going to see a decline. I mean we already kind of saw it last season some as he went from a 2.4 WAR in 2023 to 0.6 last season with just 51 less AB.
I do think the Cubs tender him a contract though, I'm just spitballing how to create 40 man spots and opportunies to either upgrade a position or allow a prospect to make the MLB roster and OF is one of those spots we have much younger and cheaper options if ou go internal or you can go out and spend on an everyday OF that upgrades the position and use 1 of Caissie or Alcantara as the 4th OF too. Going to be interesting to see what they do there as I think they would like to move Suzuki to the primary DH and if Bellinger opts out then you have to do something with RF if you don't want to play Suzuki there every day. The Cubs have run basically the same main group of guys out there 2 years in a row now with identical results so at some point you gotta make some moves even with these fringe roster type spots instead of expecting different results from the same group of players.
I will say if they tender a contract to Patrick Wisdom I may throw a brick through a window in anger. I've been ready to dump that bum for 2 years now. The "well he crushes lefties" argument is no more after he went 17-97 (.183) with 4 HR and 38 K against lefties this year. Wasn't even all that great against them last year really either 26-120 (.217) 10 HR and 47 K Literally striking out almost twice as much against them than he was getting a hit. His defense sucks too so at least that's 1 decent thing Counsell did was playing him less this year than he has been used the previous 3 seasons.
Already 2 MLB trades the day after the WS. Not that either are huge trades but we have some guys that maybe a small market team would be interested in that could clear both salary and 40 man spots for a chance at a lotto pick type of prospect that won't need to be on the 40 man for a few years. Or even just swap some 40 man guys that fill a need for both teams like Canario or Mervis for an optional bullpen arm with some option years left.
Hey MRed, tried finding the predictor schedule calculator thing to post this in but couldn’t find it.
Your site got a shoutout on Wednesdays Pardon My Take about 58 minutes in. One of the top sports podcasts in the world
I love reading the comments on FB when BN posts articles like this. Until we actually see Jed and the front office get aggressive in the offseason I think most fans expect more of the same from the last few offseasons which is feign like they are going to be in on the top guys then wind up signing whatever is left over on the cheap. Then when you look down that list of guys they pulled out how are most of them other than Soto and Alonso any much of an improvement over the 20-25 HR type guys we already have like Happ Busch and Suzuki? Also have to factor in that in order to sign some of those guys you'd have to trade another guy already on the roster to make a spot for them.
If the Cubs Are Looking to Buy Homers This Winter, There Are a Lot of Options in Free Agency - Bleacher Nation
Bregman is the guy think is the best fit and they can figure out what to do with Paredes whether that be trade him, move him to another position, or use as a utility guy as Bregman would be a huge upgrade at 3B both offensively and defensively. I'm not sure we did anything other than just trade for another version of Morel as Paredes had an even worse stretch than Morel did after the trade.
Other than Soto are any of those OF really a significant upgrade over what we had in Bellinger or what we might potentially get out of Caissie or Alcantara? Torres plays 2B and I guess you look past his 15 HR this season even though the previous 3 he had 25 24 and 9? In 7 MLB seasons he's basically a 20 HR average guy which the Cubs already have plenty of those types. Would be curious to dig through some of the last 4 seasons on the guys on that list and see if those HR totals this year are comparable to previous years or not.
Thinking outside the box a bit but we may as well use some of our prospect capital and try to trade for someone like Vlad Jr. if Toronto puts him on the block with the caveat of signing an extension too. He's just 25 and can play 1B and 3B, there is your young HR hitter that has 30+ HR potential. As I said before 3B and C are the most logical spots to upgrade but the options are limited there.
If the Cubs Are Looking to Buy Homers This Winter, There Are a Lot of Options in Free Agency - Bleacher Nation
Bregman is the guy think is the best fit and they can figure out what to do with Paredes whether that be trade him, move him to another position, or use as a utility guy as Bregman would be a huge upgrade at 3B both offensively and defensively. I'm not sure we did anything other than just trade for another version of Morel as Paredes had an even worse stretch than Morel did after the trade.
Other than Soto are any of those OF really a significant upgrade over what we had in Bellinger or what we might potentially get out of Caissie or Alcantara? Torres plays 2B and I guess you look past his 15 HR this season even though the previous 3 he had 25 24 and 9? In 7 MLB seasons he's basically a 20 HR average guy which the Cubs already have plenty of those types. Would be curious to dig through some of the last 4 seasons on the guys on that list and see if those HR totals this year are comparable to previous years or not.
Thinking outside the box a bit but we may as well use some of our prospect capital and try to trade for someone like Vlad Jr. if Toronto puts him on the block with the caveat of signing an extension too. He's just 25 and can play 1B and 3B, there is your young HR hitter that has 30+ HR potential. As I said before 3B and C are the most logical spots to upgrade but the options are limited there.
IMO Counsell is 100% OK with starting the season with Tauchman as the Cubs 4th/5th OF. Still leaving a spot for one prospect OF to open the season in Chicago. The other top OF prospects can be sent to DSM to shine and earn a full time call-up after the All-Star break. At that time the Cubs could break ties with Tauchman either by trade or release.
Regardless of the above scenarios, if Bellinger opts-out, IMO the Cubs shouldn't open the season with an OF of Happ, PCA and Suzuki. At best Happ or Suzuki could be the Cubs full-time DH. The Cubs need to add a couple BIG bats and the most logical spots are 1B, 3B, OF and DH.
Weird thing about 3B is I think we'd all take a 3B who hits .333 with a .448 OBP and .911 OPS which would lead the league amongst all 3B.
This is exactly what Paredes did on the road while as a Cub. The problem is he was so ******* atrocious in Wrigley that he goes from an elite offensive 3B to a below average one.
I still think he's the 3B heading into next season.
This is exactly what Paredes did on the road while as a Cub. The problem is he was so ******* atrocious in Wrigley that he goes from an elite offensive 3B to a below average one.
I still think he's the 3B heading into next season.
Cubs still have 5 guys to remove from the following list by Monday at 5:00
https://www.thecubreporter.com/cubs-40-man-roster
My guess is they are trying to make trades the next couple days before cutting. Here's my prediction. They just need it to get it to 40 - the arbitration-eligible guys still have a couple of weeks before you need to worry about cutting them.
1 - Trade Canario
2 - Trade Mervis
3 - Bellinger opts out
4 - Smyly opts out
5 - Cut Herget
Something else I just thought of - Cutting Smyly now takes an extra $2.5 MM out of this years luxury tax. I wonder if there's a world they keep him to hopefully get under the Tier I?
https://www.thecubreporter.com/cubs-40-man-roster
My guess is they are trying to make trades the next couple days before cutting. Here's my prediction. They just need it to get it to 40 - the arbitration-eligible guys still have a couple of weeks before you need to worry about cutting them.
1 - Trade Canario
2 - Trade Mervis
3 - Bellinger opts out
4 - Smyly opts out
5 - Cut Herget
Something else I just thought of - Cutting Smyly now takes an extra $2.5 MM out of this years luxury tax. I wonder if there's a world they keep him to hopefully get under the Tier I?
I think it's well known that 8 years ago today the best baseball game/result ever happened. 
I think it's well known that 8 years ago today the best baseball game/result ever happened.
Opt-outs: Bellinger & Smiley
Infield: Seems like there are 4 obvious waive/trades with: Mervis Wisdom, Madrigal and Mastrobuoni. Cubs need to sign a utility infield FA who has ability to hit .250 and maybe has some power. A prospect infielder can fill the other utility infield spot. Vazquez would be great as he is already on the 40.
Outfield: Waive/Trade one of the 3 prospects: Davis, Canario or Alacantara. This move would be a net wash with Caissie.
Relief Pitchers: The Cubs have a glut of arms- 18 to be exact. Prioritize the top 10ish and waive/trade the rest. Current relievers on the 40-man: Almonte, Alzolay, Arias, Brewer, Brown, Herget, Hodge, Hollowell, Little, Merryweather, Miller, Neely, Palencia, Paredes, Pearson, Roberts, Thompson, Wingenter.
IMO the only relievers the Cubs MUST protect are: Arias, Brown, Hodge and Little. I feel Merryweather and Miller deserve spots based prior seasons production. I'd keep Alzolay because of his 2021-2023 performance with the Cubs. After that keep the 3 guys they are most optimistic about contributing in Chicago in 2025 and waive the rest with a goal to re-sign some to MiLB deals.
Over the winter, hopefully the Cubs add 2-3 bullpen arms through FA. With a proven closer at the top of the list.
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I think the United States Tax Code would be an easier read than trying to decipher all that.
