I will believe it when I see it. I haven't seen anything about how Johnson and JCl are good defenders. And effort wasn't an issue with Nixon and Johnson.
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I will believe it when I see it. I haven't seen anything about how Johnson and JCl are good defenders. And effort wasn't an issue with Nixon and Johnson.
agree. saying something doesnt make it so. doesnt bartorvik show Jacobson is a better defender than Johnson is based off college stats so far?
@Sigmapolis
https://www.barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2020&p=Michael Jacobson&t=Iowa St.
https://www.barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2020&t=Iowa St.&p=Javan+Johnson
Which stat are you looking at...?
I have never seen a comprehensive defensive stat for a player.
Offense is really easy to model as the sum of individual effort, but defense is so team-specific and context-dependent that it is really hard right now.
We would need some of the NBA next generation stats to really describe that, but Bart Torvik and KenPom only really have advanced box scores to work with.
Based on those two were really ******* bad -- it is a "nowhere to go but up" argument.
We are going to miss Tyrese on defense, though.
Getting better on defense after losing your best player on defense hurts.
This is why not landing Smith really stung... we need guys who play defense and rebound. Either to bring them in or manufacture them for us.
Blackwell and Foster would help us more if they frankly came in, D'd up, blocked a ton of shots, and pulled down a ton of rebounds instead of just chuckin' shots.
I think Jackson can be a good defender. He was good for a Freshman last year. Yeah it would be huge if a couple Freshman showed up and were really good defenders and rebounders. If this team could just rebound it would improve the defense.
Also a lot of those Jacobson stats were him playing against a 5. He was a much better defender as an undersized 5 guarding a 5 than trying to stay in front of 4s.
Jacobson was better as a 5 but got mauled as a 4.
He was out of position. Nixon...? He was just simply bad.
Refining my argument -- those two were bad, and next year's team (hopefully) is just generally more talented, long, tall, athletic, not going to have guys playing badly out of position, and hopefully putting in better effort on defense.
Lot of hoping there, I know, but that is at least the idea.
youre way better versed on Torvik than i am, but ive always looked at defensive rating (DR) and Defensive Block Plus Minute (DBPM)
maybe im a fool and looking at those are worthless. Been trying to get more into the statistical analysis of players this offseason.
They are not worthless, but they are better used to compare guys within a team playing comparable levels of minutes than they are between teams/years/up and down a roster. They are not as universally translatable as offensive efficiencies.
We all could see with our eyes that Chris Babb was a good defender, but his DBPM was still not good because the defense around him was just not very good.
Well when some of us suggested getting a transfer (Nojel Eastern) that is known for his defense, some on here were disgusted by the fact that he can't shoot three pointers.
We haven't really been a good defensive team the past 10 years and likely will never be, but you can be respectable on defense where it doesn't become a huge liability. Last year was pathetic, but look at our roster situation. When Tyrese went down, we had Bolton, Nixon, and Jackson as our starting guards. Bolton a sophomore, Nixon usually having to guard the 3, and Jackson a freshman who wasn't ready. After that, we had Grill who was more behind than Jackson was and then Lewis / Griffin who were virtually unplayable on both ends of the floor. Along with that, we had Mike that was tasked with guarding the 4, usually no matter what.
For next year, Jackson will be a year older and while he was definitely not a great defender last year, there were flashes of him being able to do it in years to come. Bolton may never be a great defender, or even a good one, but his offensive ability makes up for that. Solomon is overall pretty good on defense and if Conditt takes that next step and learn to use his length he could be really good. Harris will be like Bolton in the fact that his offense can make up for his defensive liabilities, but the dude does get after you on the defensive end. He's a pest.
Johnson, JCL, Dubar, and Blackwell are all fighting to play that 3/4 spot that's usually interchangeable in Prohm's offense. I would take a level of defense that even THT gave us. Wasn't great, but was serviceable. Xavier will be a wildcard depending on his position and Walker could be a guy that surprises people on both ends.
My point to this long rant is that we have pieces this year that last year's team just didn't. We have guys that can play multiple positions unlike last year when we had a bunch of 2's and 5's. Do we have to be great on defense to be a good team? No, we only have to be average. Our offense SHOULD make up for the rest.
am i wrong that seemingly everyone projecting optimism for this team (ncaa bubble, top half of conf, etc)
is banking on every thing going right for ISU
is banking on every thing going right for ISU
- 2 or more freshman are studs
- JCL reverts to his Illinois shooting %s
- Harris gets a waiver and can be better than the role player he was at Memphis
- Johnson is a capable Big 12 player
- someone can run the PG spot
Yeah lots of optimism for a team that looks like it has bottom of the league talent. I think it is definitely is possible that the team improves and is a bubble team/NCAA team but not very probably.
Defensive stats are the dumbest of the stats. You can't look at who they were defending against. Were they out of position while defending. What kind of defense is your team playing? So using defensive stats is stupid
Every day I find a new way to deepen my understanding of how bad our defense was last year.
Let me play the Devil's Advocate here, though...
-- 2 of the freshmen are okay and 2 of them are busts (not expecting anything like the "1 okay and 3 were busts" record of the last class, thankfully)
-- JCL is meh, an average or mediocre high-major starter like he was at DePaul... got the "yips" somewhere after his stint at UIUC and never figured it back out
-- Harris is redshirting
-- Johnson is not a capable Big 12 player and should have stayed in the Sun Belt
-- Bolton and Jackson try to play PG (and turn it over a lot in the process)
The problem is I can see a lot of these happening.
I just hope we finally have a year where things break our way.
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Very few were against Eastern.
My optimism in improvement for next year is rooted in how bad we were last year.
Jacobson was just as much the symptom as he was the ailment. We are bad at team defense. Any player caught in action that requires team defense is liable to look bad in our defense imo. Nixon and Jacobson weren’t known for poor defense until they played in our defense last year. JCL and Harris don’t project better imo.
I like next year’s material due to the wings, but I’m not sure what that will mean under this staff.
I honestly think if all of those things happen, we'd be a hell of a lot better than just a bubble team. Here's how I believe things have to play out in order to be on the bubble:
- At least 2 freshman are solid (if they're absolute studs, they're leaving after one or two years)
- JCL shoots 35% or above (He shot 40% at Illinois, which is close to elite 3pt % range)
- Harris gets the waiver and takes his first step into being the player he was recruited to be
- Johnson is a capable Big 12 player (hearing that he's pretty good)
- Guys from last year improve in their needed areas
Let me paraphrase something Paul Rhoads said in his "postmortem" interviews with Chris Williams (or I think it was CW) a year or two after he left...
"When you got yourself one jackass, well, you've got yourself a jackass. When you've got two jackasses, well, you've got yourself a jackass farm."
I think there were a few knuckleheads around last year who probably degraded the team environment it takes for a staff to team the complexities and nuances of team defense, which is what you need to be good at this level.
It is on the staff that the jackasses were around in the first place, but I think Prohm has committed himself to not having the character risks around he used to.
That might help with program discipline and teaching.
Again, kind of grasping here. I just want us to be good again.
Nixon got to a point last year where defense only mattered when he wanted it to, and the way his offensive game was going drastically dictated how he'd play on the other end. He would let guys drive by him so he could foul them, he'd stop closing out because he believed he wouldn't alter the shot, he'd jump on every pump fake, etc. It wasn't Mike's fault he was so bad, it was just the matchups. Mike couldn't guard a 4 at all and if he had to switch onto a 1, 2, or 3, it was not only worse for him, but we likely would have Nixon, Bolton, or Jackson on that 4 and it was over.
I would appreciate a trigger warning on posts like these.
You're triggering my PTSD remembering all of those things you describe.
Need some Tyrese highlights to feel better...
Ah there we go.
Wait. Great pass from Haliburton and NIXON MISSES THE LAY-UP!
GET OUT OF MY HEAD PRENTISS NIXON!!!
