NBA Mock Drafts 2026

[MJ271]

I don't know if Jefferson will be a first round pick, especially with the much-discussed quality of this year's draft class.

However, keep in mind that NBA teams are looking for very different things in the draft. Sure, a lot of teams are looking for high upside and untapped potential. But the playoff teams that draft later in the first round are also often interested in drafting players who they are more confident could be contributors to an NBA rotation in years 1 & 2. Teams that are over the salary cap need to get production from their draft picks, which makes a high-floor player an intriguing choice.

One interesting thing is that Jefferson's comps on Kenpom for this year include Draymond Green and Toumani Camara. Obviously everyone knows about Draymond, but Camara is in his 3rd year in the NBA and has been a bright spot for an otherwise-struggling Trail Blazers franchise.

(Side note: Describing Jefferson as "a little better" on defense compared to Niang has to be the understatement of the year.)

Another interesting note with regards to older guys in the NBA draft:

In 2025, every single second round draft pick was a senior, junior, or international player (19 seniors, 3 juniors, 7 international, if I counted correctly and Wikipedia is accurate).

 

[HFCS]

Hopefully he leaves to the NBA, not to another school...

If he keeps playing like this rolling the dice in another system/school would be the worst gamble vs staying at ISU or going to the draft.

It's not like he's going to shoot 65% from 3 instead of 55% because he switched schools

 

[Sigmapolis]

Playoff defense is basically every single team plays better defense than ISU and Houston. Some of them at a wildly different level.

82 regular season games...yeah you can hide a guy who is a bad defender if his offense helps you.

Even an All Star like Jalen Brunson can get exposed as a sub par defender with poor length when playoff time arrives.

It is funny how the Knicks can't play Towns and Brunson together at the same time during crunch time (notionally their two stars) because you can't put together a workable defense (by the standards of playoff NBA basketball) with the two of them on the court at the same time. Quite the awkward roster! You can kind of hide one or the other but you can't hide both at the same time.

 

[MJ271]

Playoff defense is basically every single team plays better defense than ISU and Houston. Some of them at a wildly different level.

82 regular season games...yeah you can hide a guy who is a bad defender if his offense helps you.

Even an All Star like Jalen Brunson can get exposed as a sub par defender with poor length when playoff time arrives.

Absolutely. I think a lot of college-focused fans don't realize how different the NBA regular season is vs. the playoffs.

Since about his 3rd season, Georges Niang has been a very valuable role player in the regular season, with consistently one of the best 3P% in the league. However, in the playoffs, he has often been played off the floor because opponents hunt him on switches, plus the more intense defense and athleticism of the playoffs means that he doesn't get enough open looks offensively to make up for his defense.

 

[Darius Bieber]

If he keeps playing like this rolling the dice in another system/school would be the worst gamble vs staying at ISU or going to the draft.

It's not like he's going to shoot 65% from 3 instead of 55% because he switched schools

I'm not necessarily thinking system-wise, I'm more thinking money-wise

 

[cyfanatic]

If he keeps playing like this rolling the dice in another system/school would be the worst gamble vs staying at ISU or going to the draft.

It's not like he's going to shoot 65% from 3 instead of 55% because he switched schools

Could be...depends upon how much Iowa State offers him to stay...or another school offers him to transfer! (I really really hate to think about the second part of that statement)

 

[HFCS]

I'm not necessarily thinking system-wise, I'm more thinking money-wise

Shooting like this he's on track for at least a 2nd round pick and real shot at a team, there's no guarantee with that but it at least gets a GM who wants you to work for the team as opposed to going undrafted.

For long term $$$ I think it would be crazy to try anything but 4th year at ISU or NBA draft after this year.

 

[HFCS]

It is funny how the Knicks can't play Towns and Brunson together at the same time during crunch time (notionally their two stars) because you can't put together a workable defense (by the standards of playoff NBA basketball) with the two of them on the court at the same time. Quite the awkward roster! You can kind of hide one or the other but you can't hide both at the same time.

Exactly. Enough superstars usually in their way are injured though so maybe this is the year they break through and get crushed by west winner.

 

[Frak]

If sharing concerns about Toure, mine isn't losing him to the NBA next year, but rather someone throwing a bag at him to play at another school next year. While losing someone to the NBA after only one year means a loss of talent, it has to make recruiting the next player a bit easier.

One good thing about losing Lipsey, Jefferson, Momcilivic…we are going to have money available to spend.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Exactly. Enough superstars usually in their way are injured though so maybe this is the year they break through and get crushed by west winner.

I don't know how the East keeps being so bad decade after decade.

It's been 25+ years since the Jordan/Pippen/Rodman/etc. Bulls dominated the league.

There's been a few breakthroughs (the LeBron-era Heat and second Cavs stint, the "Big Three" Celtics, one-year wonders from the Bucks and Raptors, etc.) but the imbalance is remarkably persistent.

Reminds me of the NFC not losing a Super Bowl between 1984 and 1996 only worse.

 

[madguy30]

Toure just had a zero point game. As well as he defends, I don’t know that you can get drafted as a PG solely on defense and athleticism. He probably needs one more year. Honestly, a team built around Toure, Batemon, Buchanan and Pleta is still really good. You get Williams off of RS, add a guy or two from the portal, plus a good recruiting class. That’s a top 25 team at worst.

Well if Toure reads this and his response is to go on to average 19 ppg the rest of the way and leaves early after leading ISU to only one natty instead of two, we know who to turn to.

 

[AuH2O]

Hopefully he leaves to the NBA, not to another school...

The cash in on a transfer for your senior year guys are those that aren't going to get drafted in the first round. Milan is getting drafted in the first round in 2026. Book it.

 

[GoodOleDays]

Pleta playing PF on offense is intriguing. He hasn't attempted a 3PT as a Cyclone, but he was advertised as having some shooting range coming into the program. A 6'11" guy with long arms and a release that isn't obnoxiously slow is going to be dangerous at the pick 'n' pop or lurking in the corner.

I just don't know how he's going to do defending a mobile "4" on the perimeter. He doesn't have the fluid lateral footspeed of a Buchanan, Ward, or Jones. Unless they find another true big man (could be one of the freshman) and assuming Buchanan and Pleta are both back, I would imagine next year would be the two of them trading off at the "5" with occasional short bursts of playing small without a true center.



I don't disagree about the market value of Cluff and Buchanan, but oddly enough at the time the UVA people I knew (and I used to work with a ton of them in DC... the senior partner was a UVA guy and liked to hire fellow Cavaliers) didn't seem too sad to see Buchanan depart from Charlottesville.

I'm paraphrasing, but they basically said his hands suck, he "plays dumb" and takes bad shots and turns the ball over way too much, and yeah he's a good defender but that only takes you so far.

I heard all this and a lightbulb went off in my head of "seems like an Otz guy." And boy he was.

And yeah, I think the priorities for rebuilding the roster on the fly for next spring are obvious enough.

1.) All the seniors are obviously gone. Milan is likely going out with them -- go get it in the NBA.

2.) Retain (in rough order of importance) Toure, Buchanan, Batemon, and Pleta. You could argue #1 or #2 (Toure higher ceiling, but P5 big men are just so valuable) in the order, but it's close.

3.) Get a forward who can productively replace a good chunk on the minutes lost with Jefferson and Momcilovic moving on -- not at the same level of two guys playing like All-Americans right now, obviously, but a complimentary piece to Toure, Batemon, and Buchanan stepping up to lead the team.

4.) Get another guard for depth and ballhandling.

5.) Maybe get another Chatfield or Mulder emergency big man type.

...and I think you're rolling into 2026-27 as a competitive team even if not a Final Four favorite.

I wonder if they'd consider Pleta and Buchanan switching offense and defensive roles. Pleta 4 Buchanan 5 on offense, but Buchanan could maybe guard the 4? Probably wouldn't be optimal though.

I expect Dorian Rinaldo Komlan to make the rotation as a freshman as well. Similar path as Toure from international to killing it at Spire against legit US prep school competition.

We'll see how Jackson Kiss develops this year too. Only a few years of ball experience but also at a prep school and already in the top 100 and looks like his physicality will translate fast at least as a depth piece.

Regardless frontcourt depth should be a strength and we might be able to save on that emergency big to put toward a starting PF, and some combo of ball handling/ experience/ Heise-type glue/ wing depth

 

[AllInForISU]

I would be interested to know how many of you making these predictions actually follow the NBA or the draft.

I’m not saying these guys mentioned wouldn’t produce to a degree in the NBA, but the teams don’t draft on how well you do in college. It’s literally all about potential. Milan will be an NBA player, but will probably be a late 1st round at best but likely a round 2 guy on a 2 way contract. Same with Jefferson. The only potential lottery pick on this team IMO at this point is probably Toure. We see it every year, guys are great in college but they are older and don’t get a shot.

 

[Frak]

I would be interested to know how many of you making these predictions actually follow the NBA or the draft.

I’m not saying these guys mentioned wouldn’t produce to a degree in the NBA, but the teams don’t draft on how well you do in college. It’s literally all about potential. Milan will be an NBA player, but will probably be a late 1st round at best but likely a round 2 guy on a 2 way contract. Same with Jefferson. The only potential lottery pick on this team IMO at this point is probably Toure. We see it every year, guys are great in college but they are older and don’t get a shot.

I think that the NBA draft has changed a little bit due to the influx of foreign players. It used to be, if you didn't have NBA prototypical size and athleticism, you weren't getting drafted. Didn't matter what kind of skill you had, if you could run, jump and guard with good positional size, that's all that mattered. Now, it's a little different. They still value potential over everything, but actual skill is weighted more than it used to be.

I don't disagree with your draft projections. Toure is the one who has a chance to be a lottery pick. But, he needs to show he can run an offense and hit open shots. I just feel like he's 2 and done.

 

[CyberJJJ]

He's older, has little upside / untapped potential, and is generally a below the rim player. He is a great playmaker, but no NBA team is running offense through a Jefferson type in 2027 and beyond.

His comparison is a Georges Niang type, with a little better D and rebounding and a worse 3 point shot.

I think he will be a long term bench NBA guy, but no team NEEDS to take a guy like this in the first round.

Happy to be wrong.

I get the comparison of Milan to Georges, but don't agree that is a good comp for Jefferson. Little untapped potential? His stats have improved every year in college. Career wise, he was not the 3Pt shooter in college Georges was, but Georges was 39.2% as a senior, and so far this year Joshua is 38.9%, so pretty close at the same stage of their career, although I believe Georges has a bit more volume and we obviously have almost a decade of NBA experience to have more confidence. I wouldn't call Joshua a skywalker, but I also wouldn't call him a below the rim player like I would Georges or Milan. He is considerably more athletic.

 

[CyberJJJ]

Pleta playing PF on offense is intriguing. He hasn't attempted a 3PT as a Cyclone, but he was advertised as having some shooting range coming into the program. A 6'11" guy with long arms and a release that isn't obnoxiously slow is going to be dangerous at the pick 'n' pop or lurking in the corner.

I just don't know how he's going to do defending a mobile "4" on the perimeter. He doesn't have the fluid lateral footspeed of a Buchanan, Ward, or Jones.

Love me some "Big Rob" Jones, but you made me chuckle when you used him as an example of "fluid lateral footspeed". Big Rob was surprisingly able to stay in front of guards on the perimeter, but I can't say as it ever looked "fluid"!

 

[AllInForISU]

I get the comparison of Milan to Georges, but don't agree that is a good comp for Jefferson. Little untapped potential? His stats have improved every year in college. Career wise, he was not the 3Pt shooter in college Georges was, but Georges was 39.2% as a senior, and so far this year Joshua is 38.9%, so pretty close at the same stage of their career, although I believe Georges has a bit more volume and we obviously have almost a decade of NBA experience to have more confidence. I wouldn't call Joshua a skywalker, but I also wouldn't call him a below the rim player like I would Georges or Milan. He is considerably more athletic.

Is he though?

 

[AuH2O]

I would be interested to know how many of you making these predictions actually follow the NBA or the draft.

I’m not saying these guys mentioned wouldn’t produce to a degree in the NBA, but the teams don’t draft on how well you do in college. It’s literally all about potential. Milan will be an NBA player, but will probably be a late 1st round at best but likely a round 2 guy on a 2 way contract. Same with Jefferson. The only potential lottery pick on this team IMO at this point is probably Toure. We see it every year, guys are great in college but they are older and don’t get a shot.

Except that isn't really how the NBA drafts any more. The lottery last year was pretty much this:

- Bryant at #14 - a raw 1 year guy that didn't really produce in college
- Maluach at #10 - raw but fairly productive at Duke as a 1 year guy
- French kid at #12

The other 11 guys were anywhere from really good to elite players in the college game. Yes, mostly 1 year guys, but they all produced at a high level. That included guys like Kneuppel and Demin that were skilled guys that weren't very athletic.

There were 5 first round guys that were productive upper-classmen, none of which I would consider to be better NBA prospects than Milan.

That's why I don't think Toure is a first round guy this year, and I think Milan is.

 

[CyberJJJ]

Is he though?

My eyes say yes (with the caveat that I wear glasses!). Georges was crafty skilled. I believe Jefferson is stronger and more athletic. I am not calling him a freak athlete, but more so than Georges or Milan. Although when it came to trash talk, not sure anyone was ever more "athletically mouthed" than Georges!