Latest Bracketology

[CoachHines3]

Not sure we can crawl up much higher than a 6.

I was playing around with Torvik and going 2-2 in our next 4 games, meaning we beat Texas in first round down in KC would put us as a 6 according to his rankings. Now, other teams would play into that but I don't see us getting past a 6. Maybe if we win out we'd get a 5 but thats probably doubtful.

 

[cyfan92]

Iowa State is a solid 7 right now but if we take care of Okie St and win one in KC I think we are on the 6 line.

If we take care of business with OSU and we don't get blown out by Baylor and Texas (likely in the 4/5 game). I think we are a 6 seed with only 1 more win. The committee tipped their hand that Q1 wins are a HUGE weight for resume in their initial 16 team reveal last week. Look at Houston being a top 5 KenPom team and missing the initial 16 list put out by the committee.

2 more wins would put us at 10 Q1 wins. That in borderline 5 seed talk.

 

[CloniesForLife]

Not sure we can crawl up much higher than a 6.

I was playing around with Torvik and going 2-2 in our next 4 games, meaning we beat Texas in first round down in KC would put us as a 6 according to his rankings. Now, other teams would play into that but I don't see us getting past a 6. Maybe if we win out we'd get a 5 but thats probably doubtful.

If we win out through the BIG12 Tourney I could see better than a 6 seed that would mean wins against Baylor and then 3 wins against the top of the conference. Probably putting us at 12+ quad 1 wins

 

[cyclones500]

I like this bracket not only for us and our seed but overall it's well thought out.

5-Star Bracketology

Compare at Bracket Matrix: For a deeper dive: Bubble Watch 2023 (Updated 3/12)

5-star-bets.com

Not a bad draw. Location less than ideal, but as a 6, not many ideal options.

Minor flaw -- has Rutgers on First 4 Out list, but in bracket as 11 seed. (Looks like USF either should be in bracket or needed switched to F4O).

 

[dahliaclone]

Not a bad draw. Location less than ideal, but as a 6, not many ideal options.

Minor flaw -- has Rutgers on First 4 Out list, but in bracket as 11 seed. (Looks like USF either should be in bracket or needed switched to F4O).

yeah I saw that on Rutgers too. Ultimately I think they're gonna not make the tourney.

 

[BryceC]

yeah I saw that on Rutgers too. Ultimately I think they're gonna not make the tourney.

If Rutgers makes the tourney it's great news for our seed, because they are ONLY getting in due to Q1 wins.

#83 NET, #58 SOR, 2 Q3 losses and a 300+ home loss.

 

[madguy30]

yeah I saw that on Rutgers too. Ultimately I think they're gonna not make the tourney.

I'd guess last week decided it.

Kinda too bad too--I've had a chance to watch them and their ascent was fun to watch along with RH Jr.

 

[cyclones500]

yeah I saw that on Rutgers too. Ultimately I think they're gonna not make the tourney.

Rutgers could become an interesting case. Q1/Q2 is solid, Q3/Q4 largely icky, pure NET rank not favorable.

 

[dahliaclone]

Big Ten has three teams that are all bubbled with Rutgers, Indiana, and Michigan. Personally, I think Rutgers is the best of the three but their resume likely keeps them out. UNLESS they win both this week (at Indiana and vs Penn State) which they can do. But if they split and then lose first game in Indy not looking good.

Similarly, Indiana, if they lose to Rutgers at home they have at Purdue remaining. Good luck with that. They'd ALSO need a Q1 win in Indy to feel remotely good if they lose both this week.

Michigan hosts Michigan State and Iowa then ends at Ohio State. If they can win both home games I'm guessing their in...and I hope they do win both. Having MSU lose is good as they are in the same seed lines as us and beating Iowa is...well...beating Iowa which I love and might knock Iowa down a peg seed wise too.

 

[dahliaclone]

Ultimately this is what I want from Big Ten this week:

Iowa beats NW but loses at UM and ILL
Indiana loses to Rutgers and Purdue
Rutgers beats Indiana and PSU
Michigan beats MSU and Iowa and loses to Ohio State

Those things happen and Iowa is the 8 seed due to so many teams finishing with same record and Iowa not having any tiebreakers. Plus they would face a 9 seed Indiana team HAVING to get a win for NCAA tourney.

 

[NiceMarmot]

Updated my bracket today which I originally posted here. I've got Iowa State as the first 7-seed right now, with LSU and St. Mary's directly in front of them and Iowa, Marquette, and Michigan State as the other 7-seeds.



If you use the table in the Resumes tab of the Google sheet, ISU's Q1 wins really stand out. We'll see how much that matters to the committee, compared to some other metrics like Q1+Q2 wins, the performance-based metrics like BPI/Kenpom/Sagarin, and NCSOS (the one metric for ISU that could potentially hurt them most as far as seeding-wise).

 

[PSYclone22]

As I'm comfortable with our position, I'm hoping UNI or Drake wins the Valley tournament so they can get in. Would also add some bubble pressure since Loyola is almost certainly in.

 

[PSYclone22]

Updated my bracket today which I originally posted here. I've got Iowa State as the first 7-seed right now, with LSU and St. Mary's directly in front of them and Iowa, Marquette, and Michigan State as the other 7-seeds.

View attachment 96212

If you use the table in the Resumes tab of the Google sheet, ISU's Q1 wins really stand out. We'll see how much that matters to the committee, compared to some other metrics like Q1+Q2 wins, the performance-based metrics like BPI/Kenpom/Sagarin, and NCSOS (the one metric for ISU that could potentially hurt them most as far as seeding-wise).

View attachment 96213

The Q1 win total is certainly enough. We not only have the most Q1 games played, we are 1 of only 16 teams with a winning record in Q1 games (min. 6 games played). It's pretty impressive.

 

[dahliaclone]

Updated my bracket today which I originally posted here. I've got Iowa State as the first 7-seed right now, with LSU and St. Mary's directly in front of them and Iowa, Marquette, and Michigan State as the other 7-seeds.

View attachment 96212

If you use the table in the Resumes tab of the Google sheet, ISU's Q1 wins really stand out. We'll see how much that matters to the committee, compared to some other metrics like Q1+Q2 wins, the performance-based metrics like BPI/Kenpom/Sagarin, and NCSOS (the one metric for ISU that could potentially hurt them most as far as seeding-wise).

View attachment 96213

Yep. I’m rooting for the following teams to lose a couple of times the next two weeks so we can maybe secure a 6.

Marquette
St. Mary’s
LSU
Colorado State
Michigan State
Iowa
USC
Ohio St

 

[Statefan10]

Ultimately this is what I want from Big Ten this week:

Iowa beats NW but loses at UM and ILL
Indiana loses to Rutgers and Purdue
Rutgers beats Indiana and PSU
Michigan beats MSU and Iowa and loses to Ohio State

Those things happen and Iowa is the 8 seed due to so many teams finishing with same record and Iowa not having any tiebreakers. Plus they would face a 9 seed Indiana team HAVING to get a win for NCAA tourney.

That’d suck for Iowa lol

 

[PSYclone22]

 

[cyclones500]

View attachment 96220

This is the site that has ISU as a 12 seed (among other glaring issues). I think someone posted a bracket from that source last week ... and we laughed and laughed. Bracket Matrix should establish some kind of minimum requirement for participation.

http://www.rtsratings.com/cbb_bracket.asp

 

[dahliaclone]

View attachment 96220

I just don't get ISU anything less than a 7 right now. I know I'm biased. And maybe we're headed to a 7/8 finish regardless if we just go 2-2. But it's frustrating to see teams that have predictive metrics that are strong but Q1 wins that we dwarf.

Part of me thinks the committee is of the mindset that 9 or 10 Q1 wins with no bad losses and a SOR that's top 25 gets a 6 seed. Hoping against hope maybe.

 

[kcbob79clone]

This is the site that has ISU as a 12 seed (among other glaring issues). I think someone posted a bracket from that source last week ... and we laughed and laughed. Bracket Matrix should establish some kind of minimum requirement for participation.

http://www.rtsratings.com/cbb_bracket.asp

Another KState fan heard from

 

[Jayshellberg]

Two potential NCAA tournament 6 seeds (Ohio State and USC) lost Tuesday night. If ISU beats OSU and either Baylor or TT in the Big 12 tournament, I think they secure a 6 seed at the Dance.