Michigan State is a 6/7 seed too and they got curbstomped Tuesday night at Michigan. LSU also a 6 seed on many brackets plays at Arkansas tonight. Go Hogs.
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- Thread starter goody2012
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Torvik projection right now...
First #7 seed behind Iowa and ahead of Murray State
Assume W against OSU and L against Baylor --
First #7 seed behind Iowa and ahead of Murray State (this is what the model expects to happen)
Assume W against OSU and Baylor --
Final #6 behind St. Mary's and ahead of Iowa
Assume L against OSU and Baylor --
Last #8 behind Boise State and ahead of San Diego State (91.4% chance to make tournament)
(seems like they need one more win to absolutely 100% lock in a berth)
I could add games in KC if anybody wants to see some specific scenario, but there are probably too many of them to keep doing this. But they're on track for a #7 hopefully with a win tonight.
First #7 seed behind Iowa and ahead of Murray State
Assume W against OSU and L against Baylor --
First #7 seed behind Iowa and ahead of Murray State (this is what the model expects to happen)
Assume W against OSU and Baylor --
Final #6 behind St. Mary's and ahead of Iowa
Assume L against OSU and Baylor --
Last #8 behind Boise State and ahead of San Diego State (91.4% chance to make tournament)
(seems like they need one more win to absolutely 100% lock in a berth)
I could add games in KC if anybody wants to see some specific scenario, but there are probably too many of them to keep doing this. But they're on track for a #7 hopefully with a win tonight.
If we did something crazy we could bump up all the way up to a 5. By crazy, I mean something like...
OSU (W)
@Baylor (W)
Tech (W)
Baylor (W)
Kansas (L)
It's nice we're playing well but this is obviously extremely unlikely. Tonight alone will be a battle.
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The good news is a few of the projected 6 seeds are crumbling..
Ohio St
Michigan St
Other teams we should be rooting against..
LSU
USC
Colorado St
St Mary's
Alabama
Ohio St
Michigan St
Other teams we should be rooting against..
LSU
USC
Colorado St
St Mary's
Alabama
Echoing the scenario above assuming #5 Iowa State starts off against #4 Texas --
Iowa State ends up as the highest #5 seed.
#4s = Illinois, UCLA, Providence, Alabama
#5s = Iowa State, UConn, Arkansas, Texas
I know it's Palm who isn't great...but he continues to be, in my mind, good at seeing the outliers and putting them where they should be.
Iowa State is now a 6 with Ohio State losing and dropping to a 7. Michigan State also dropped to a 7. Iowa a 9.
www.cbssports.com
Iowa State is now a 6 with Ohio State losing and dropping to a 7. Michigan State also dropped to a 7. Iowa a 9.
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Our record in Quad 1 games improved because WVU dropped out of the top 75.
Making the Madness is an expert that actually knows what he's doing and places high on the BracketMatrix. He also has us as a 6 seed today...
makingthemadness.com
Bracketology: Badgering on – Making the Madness
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Yeah, I lean this way too. Lose out, and our Q1 wins should keep us off the 8 line, but you never know. Win tonight and all but guarantee no worse than a 7.
Win any 2 and 6 is on the table. I really want to get to a 6.
Will someone explain to me how ISU is a 7-9 seed while these teams are consistently rated ahead of us?
Iowa State: Q1 wins: 9, Q1+Q2 record: 10-9 with no bad losses
Iowa: Q1 wins: 1, Q1+Q2 record: 7-8 and no bad losses
Ohio St: Q1 wins: 5, Q1+Q2: 9-8 with one bad loss to Nebby
USC: Q1 wins: 5, Q1+Q2: 10-4 and one bad loss to Stanford
LSU: Q1 wins: 5, Q1+Q2: 9-8 with one bad loss to Ole Miss
Mich St: Q1 wins: 4, Q1+Q2: 11-9 with one bad loss to Northwestern
These are all teams we need to actively cheer against.
Iowa State: Q1 wins: 9, Q1+Q2 record: 10-9 with no bad losses
Iowa: Q1 wins: 1, Q1+Q2 record: 7-8 and no bad losses
Ohio St: Q1 wins: 5, Q1+Q2: 9-8 with one bad loss to Nebby
USC: Q1 wins: 5, Q1+Q2: 10-4 and one bad loss to Stanford
LSU: Q1 wins: 5, Q1+Q2: 9-8 with one bad loss to Ole Miss
Mich St: Q1 wins: 4, Q1+Q2: 11-9 with one bad loss to Northwestern
These are all teams we need to actively cheer against.
I agree, especially considering what we saw when the committee released their top 16. I'm surprised more analysts aren't using that as a guide. The chairman mentioned Quad 1 wins for every team during the reveal, so it's obvious those are major factors in seeding. A lot of bracketologists are emphasizing the NET rankings and KenPom. I think they're overemphasizing.
There is simply no way we are on the 8/9 as of now. But some people can't see past the metrics.
I think we're a 6/7 with a chance to move up in the next two weeks.
It is more accurate to say as it sits at this moment ISU is a 6-7 seed
Iowa: NET rating
Ohio St: NET rating
USC: NET rating
LSU: NET rating
Michigan St: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It doesn't help when CBS's Jon Rothstein is calling us overachievers...
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Side note, Rothstein tweets more than anyone I have ever seen. Good God it’s just non-stop.It doesn't help when CBS's Jon Rothstein is calling us overachievers...
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See, I'm fine with saying we've overachieved. Our overall record exceeds the per possession performance of our team.It doesn't help when CBS's Jon Rothstein is calling us overachievers...
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But we're not the only ones! The below plot shows how every team that is top 100 in Barttorvik's metric average compares against their resume average:
- Close to the line - achieved (metrics and resume align)
- Above the line - underachieved (metrics outperforming resume)
- Below the line - overachieved (resume outperforming metrics)
There are plenty of other teams "overachieving" who don't get near the same credit for it as we do. Credit not exactly being the best word to use, but you get it.
I think some people got burned taking ISU in past tournaments so they want to revel in how painful it has been.
Bracketville has ISU now a 6 seed facing the winner of a play-in game between San Fran and Indiana.
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Dave’s Bracket
This is where you will find my bracket projections for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. At the time of publication, the bracket reflects an overview of where the NCAA landscape currently stands. Bra…
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