ISU Bowl Projection
- Thread starter Chitowncy
- Start date
They do everything they possibly can to make the best surface possible for every game. Same as always.
We are only 11%-22% of the way into the conference season and 10 of the 16 teams already have 1 or more conference losses. I will be shocked if both of the B12 Conference Championship participants go 9-0 or 8-1. That means there will likely be 3 or 4 teams who are tied at 7-2 and we get another look at the Big 12's crappy tiebreaker rules.
First things first. Beat Baylor.
First things first. Beat Baylor.
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You'd be surprised by several posters on here claiming most 2 star guys are diamonds in the rough and don't flame out like 4 star guys. Wait for recruiting season...
There are a few posters on here that make that argument from time to time. It's how we, as ISU fans, have to reconcile the fact we're still in the bottom half of recruiting in this iteration of the Big XII. They'll throw out exceptions to the rule like Mike Rose (and now Cael Brezina) or Greg Gaines not working out, but nobody ever argued individual players can't out/under perform.
As a whole there's an extremely high correlation between team recruiting rank and on-field success. Which is why the playoff is so damn stupid. We aren't all playing even close to the same level.
More data. The listed teams are from the CFP Playoff Wiki Page. First four L to R were selected and the others on the outside looking in. Based simply on the numbers it looks like in 2015 Stan/OU, 2016 Penn St/Washington, and 2017 UCF/Bama were 'outliers' in CFP score, but 2017 especially because Bama had an extra L over UCF, whereas in 2015/2016 the team with fewer losses got the nod.
Thinking about this deeper, it might be a bit of the reasoning behind B1G and SEC pushing for four autobids. As has been discussed, there will likely be more L's in these conferences with the increased parity, which means fewer "Quality Wins" (i.e. >0.500 teams) - this would negatively affect those two conferences, especially in a scheduling "alliance" as they can't pick up free wins against lower quality teams to boost their record. Picture a solidly average Arkansas team going from 7-5 to 6-6 because they play a B1G team instead of a CUSA opponent, which would take a "quality win" away from an Alabama or Georgia.
I know there is not a formula, but it looks to me like there's a trend...
If they said four and only four it wouldn’t be quite as bad. But they only see one side of the argument. If the big two break away I don’t think they really see the backlash from the rest of college football. I and many would never watch one of their games again. Don’t think that’s going to justify the contract they’re seeking
When you take the power conference v. Cupcakes out that number is much less impressive
I posted the CBS projection in a separate thread, figure it and ESPN’s appropriate for this thread.
www.cbssports.com
ESPN (paywall “+” so you’re aware)
www.espn.com
College Football Playoff Rankings projection: Alabama tumbles down bracket, Miami slips six spots
Major changes in this week's updated College Football Playoff projections -- and we think we'll be saying that every week at this point
www.cbssports.com
ESPN (paywall “+” so you’re aware)
College Football Playoff 2024: Week 7 bubble watch
Heading into a critical Week 7, Heather Dinich picks the CFP field of 12 and the eight teams on the bubble, then ranks the best of the Group of 5.
Much bigger things ahead but still feels pretty good for it only being Oct. 13th.
CMC once said that ******** programs care about 6-6. I'm happy to finally say, this is the first season that I haven't been excited at all by reaching our 6th win. There are so many things much more exciting than bowl eligibility that are well within our grasp. Great time for ISU football
There’s one single outcome that we as fans can already plan around: if ISU wins the Big 12, even with losses, we’ll be seeded #3 or #4 and very likely in the Fiesta bowl in Phoenix on New Years Eve. The other quarterfinal bowls are: Peach, Rose, Sugar
Reminder that CFP selection is entirely subjective, it's all just based on rankings and votes of committee members. There's no element based on wins, SOS/SOR, or metrics/analytics etc., and no absolute certainty that being champ of a particular conference means a Top X CFP ranking.
With the current rules, the Big 12 champion or any particular conference champion is not guaranteed to be in the Top 4, nor necessarily guaranteed to be in the playoffs at all. It's the five highest-rated conference champions (which will include the Big 12 champ with near-certainty, I'm just saying that within the rules it's hypothetically possible).
With the current rules, the Big 12 champion or any particular conference champion is not guaranteed to be in the Top 4, nor necessarily guaranteed to be in the playoffs at all. It's the five highest-rated conference champions (which will include the Big 12 champ with near-certainty, I'm just saying that within the rules it's hypothetically possible).
My lay of the land after this week is the same as I thought last week. Big 10 is pretty locked in at 3 bids (OSU, PSU, Oregon) but unlikely for 4 (unless Michigan, Nebraska, or Indiana run the table).
SEC locked in at 4 (Texas, Georgia, Bama, Tennessee) and legit shot at 5 (LSU, Mizzou, A&M). Ole Miss is eliminated unless they run the table.
So that leaves 1 or 2 at-large bids between ACC/B12/ND. Need Miami, Clemson, and Pitt to start dropping some games. Notre Dame and those fringe B10 and SEC teams to lose again too
SEC locked in at 4 (Texas, Georgia, Bama, Tennessee) and legit shot at 5 (LSU, Mizzou, A&M). Ole Miss is eliminated unless they run the table.
So that leaves 1 or 2 at-large bids between ACC/B12/ND. Need Miami, Clemson, and Pitt to start dropping some games. Notre Dame and those fringe B10 and SEC teams to lose again too
Jerry Palm this week has moved ISU up to the automatic bye position and listed us as the 4 seed matching up with the winner of Boise State / Oregon in the 12/5 first round match-up in the Peach Bowl. Sign me up for that.
www.cbssports.com
Bowl projections: Ohio State remains No. 2 in College Football Playoff field as Iowa State joins top four
The Buckeyes still project to win the Big Ten title down the road and earn a first-round bye in the CFP field
www.cbssports.com
