Interesting Insight on Big 12 Expansion

[JCloned]

Several interesting elements here. First, while still unlikely UCLA is on the table and there is a way for it to happen and it would make the TV networks much more supportive. The much discussed Arizona and ASU pairing is not viable. Reason is two fold. With PAC 12 Grant of Rights, adding a Pac 12 school would add no revenue to the league until the GOR expired. For example, if Texas plays conference game at UCLA Pac 12 could air it or it would not be televised. If you add 1 Pac 1m2 school and 3 other schools, it would only trigger 3 $20 million annual payments for the networks as they would not have to pay for UCLA until their rights were available. To keep UCLA "whole" from their existing deal you would have to use the money not paid to the other three schools as they are phased in to pay to UCLA. In this scenario there would be incremental dollars to the existing Big 12 schools but you would be positioned for a much bigger payday down the road and would significantly strengthen league.

Adding two Pac 12 schools (the two AZ schools for example) would not work because there wouldn't be enough phase in money from the other two schools added to keep them whole. The other reason is the TV pull of UCLA is so much stronger it would have a bigger impact on future TV deals than adding AZ.

The other insights I learned, include:

Because this is not about a TV network, ratings are far far more important than market size. As TV looks at schools in a future negotiation, two schools that stand out are western schools that would fit with UCLA. Based upon ratings in similar opponents, excluding UCLA, Texas v. Oklahoma projects as highest national ratings. (TX UCLA) would project higher with common records coming into the game. TX or OK vs BYU projects higher than any other of the teams talked about as possible adds. It also projects higher than TX/OU vs any current Big 12 team except Baylor although with what has gone down in Waco that probably has fallen.

The second highest is Boise State. Boise v. TX/OU projects higher than all except BYU and if TX v OU is 1, TX v. BYU is 2 and OK BYU is 3, TX v. Boise is 4 and against OK is 5.

Colorado State projects lower than any existing Big 12 team vs. TX /OU including KS and ISU. TV networks would be strongly opposed to CSU and it would harm future TV negotiations.

If and this is still a mighty big if, UCLA chose to join, the most likely scenario and this is the scenario that the TV networks would actually be excited about is UCLA, BYU, Boise State, and Houston.

TV networks won't get to decide, but their desire will be a reflection of what the would value future Big 12 in TV negotiations so will have an influence. If a UCLA can't be pulled in, the networks will see this as a dilution and may agree to an extension of current deal at higher rates to avoid what in their eyes is paying more for less. Any deal that was a combination of Cinci, Uconn, Memphis, or UCF, or USF would be perceived very bad by networks and could trigger court battle or simply lack of interest in increasing their bid at renegotiation time as the current deal expires

It is all speculation unless you are in the room, but I thought this insight was fresh and gave good perspective.

 

[ISUAgronomist]

There will be no expansion.

My insight for the day. YWIA

 

[bluestarcyclone]

My question about boise:

Can their past ratings really forecast to them in a future contest.

They had a following due to being the scrappy minor conference team that challenged the majors and was damn near having perfect seasons. A few years after they get into a major conference and that novelty wears off (it already is somewhat), they'll have to rely just on their own fanbase (plus that of existing teams) for ratings. What will that be? That seems like a huge negative for them.

 

[boone7247]

There will be no expansion.

My insight for the day. YWIA

I think this is most likely. The threat of paying $20+ m a year for Memphis in the B12 is enough for Fox and ESPN to say okay we will raise our current fees to get rid of that part of the contract.

Give something to get something. Leverage play by UT and OU to be sure they don't fall behind in TV revenue.

Maybe toward the end of the current deals and GOR there maybe some form of a Pac12/B12 merger. Just don't see anything now.

 

[ArgentCy]

Puke, I really don't want a move to either coast. They just don't fit culturally and they would receive abnormal coverage from the national media. The media projections are also worth very little in my book as they are far too simplistic. We need strong passonite fans that are somewhat near the conference. F Disney.

 

[Cyclonetrombone]

Small comment.

"The other insights I learned, include:"

The use of insights and learned in this way feels awkward.
Are these things that you learned from someone else? If so, citing at least the specter of someone else would solve the conflict "an insight from someone in the that I have learned"

Or are these things that are your thoughts on the matter which would be an insight.

An insight that is learned feels Buddist or spiritual and based around deep reflection or a vision quest with a lot of drugs.

Anyway. Interesting commentary. A good thought exercise.

 

[JCloned]

My question about boise:

Can their past ratings really forecast to them in a future contest.

They had a following due to being the scrappy minor conference team that challenged the majors and was damn near having perfect seasons. A few years after they get into a major conference and that novelty wears off (it already is somewhat), they'll have to rely just on their own fanbase (plus that of existing teams) for ratings. What will that be? That seems like a huge negative for them.

Their success against Power 5 in both non conference over last 5 years and in Bowl games gives networks confidence. They look at them as much more likely to got the TCU route and become a national legit threat with an even larger following. No one thinks that any of the other teams listed has any real chance in the next 5-10 years of becoming a TCU. No one expects Cinci or Memphis to become ratings powers. Remember TV networks it is built into their DNA to look at past results. They base their rates off sweeps, they renew shows that have worn out their story line because of prior results. In TV business no one is going to fire because you bet on something to continue success, betting on a non entity to become a success that will cost you a job.

 

[JCloned]

Small comment.

"The other insights I learned, include:"

The use of insights and learned in this way feels awkward.
Are these things that you learned from someone else? If so, citing at least the specter of someone else would solve the conflict "an insight from someone in the that I have learned"

Or are these things that are your thoughts on the matter which would be an insight.

An insight that is learned feels Buddist or spiritual and based around deep reflection or a vision quest with a lot of drugs.

Anyway. Interesting commentary. A good thought exercise.

You are right, it was on a out of state tv show with a guest that I didn't catch his name. He talked a lot about the differences in how BIG 12 network negotiations create a very different criteria because of the lack of a network. Seemed knowledgeable, can't personally vouch, just relaying what I heard and learned. TIFWIW

 

[JCloned]

I think this is most likely. The threat of paying $20+ m a year for Memphis in the B12 is enough for Fox and ESPN to say okay we will raise our current fees to get rid of that part of the contract.

Give something to get something. Leverage play by UT and OU to be sure they don't fall behind in TV revenue.

Maybe toward the end of the current deals and GOR there maybe some form of a Pac12/B12 merger. Just don't see anything now.

I think this is the most likely scenario as well. In the end networks pay up perhaps with an extension of deal and GOR to avoid dilution. All the teams fighting to get in will be left at the alter.

 

[3GenClone]

Small comment.

"The other insights I learned, include:"

The use of insights and learned in this way feels awkward.
Are these things that you learned from someone else? If so, citing at least the specter of someone else would solve the conflict "an insight from someone in the that I have learned"

Or are these things that are your thoughts on the matter which would be an insight.

An insight that is learned feels Buddist or spiritual and based around deep reflection or a vision quest with a lot of drugs.

Anyway. Interesting commentary. A good thought exercise.

I was just about to ask the same thing. The arguments and positing sounded very convincing until the last sentence where you stated that this is all speculation. So how much of this can you attribute- I'm sure the Boise State numbers are fairly accurate for example. I just think it would be interesting to see where some of these numbers are coming from.

But really, it is a very well thought out editorial - well done

 

[Beyerball]

The big 12 current contract is paying the conference as though it's a 12 team conference...With the sure Demise of Baylor that leaves TX/OU and TCU as the only real viable teams in our conference that are legit top 20 programs..This is not good folks. With Baylor we had 4 of 10 and that seemed barely enough. My concern with the conference doing nothing and staying at 10 is its really 9 at this point..Baylor is done folks. This conference needs to add content and take the risk that what they add will turn green. One thing is for absolute certainty and that is staying at 10 for next 8 years definitely means this conference is finished in 8 years. At least adding 4 teams allows a buffer in event TX and OU bolt. That would leave 12.prob 11 as KU would go to BIG which would utterly disgust me.

I truly believe this month will decide the future of ISU athletics.

 

[NWICY]

The big 12 current contract is paying the conference as though it's a 12 team conference...With the sure Demise of Baylor that leaves TX/OU and TCU as the only real viable teams in our conference that are legit top 20 programs..This is not good folks. With Baylor we had 4 of 10 and that seemed barely enough. My concern with the conference doing nothing and staying at 10 is its really 9 at this point..Baylor is done folks. This conference needs to add content and take the risk that what they add will turn green. One thing is for absolute certainty and that is staying at 10 for next 8 years definitely means this conference is finished in 8 years. At least adding 4 teams allows a buffer in event TX and OU bolt. That would leave 12.prob 11 as KU would go to BIG which would utterly disgust me.

I truly believe this month will decide the future of ISU athletics.

I feel that you are overestimating the death of Baylor. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Kendall takes over the team after this yr. They might keep the guy they brought in, but I'll be surprised if they do.

 

[scyclonekid]

This conference is toast. Texas really ****ed to many members and being the spoiled rich college brat in the conference to only crush it, **** u Texas.

 

[scyclonekid]

And Baylor has no ******* morals.

 

[Gorm]

Any conference that includes Oklahoma and Texas, the networks will pay for. They will pay to keep it whole, in order to avoid overpaying for those teams to join a bigger conference.

This can be said for almost all conferences. All power 5 conferences have 2-3 breadwinners. The rest are along for the ride. Is a Big 10 void of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn state worth what they are commanding in rights? Is the SEC void of Alabama, Florida, and LSU worth what they are commanding?

At the end of the day, as long as Texas and Oklahoma are part of this conference, the TV networks will negotiate.

Having said that, I trust that the presidents and Bob are doing their due diligence and will come up with the best decision for the future of the conference.

If next week the Big 12 comes out and says we are adding 4 teams and extending out GOR until 2040, the media narrative will change 180 degrees.

 

[Redman97]

Any conference that includes Oklahoma and Texas, the networks will pay for. They will pay to keep it whole, in order to avoid overpaying for those teams to join a bigger conference.

This can be said for almost all conferences. All power 5 conferences have 2-3 breadwinners. The rest are along for the ride. Is a Big 10 void of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn state worth what they are commanding in rights? Is the SEC void of Alabama, Florida, and LSU worth what they are commanding?

At the end of the day, as long as Texas and Oklahoma are part of this conference, the TV networks will negotiate.

Having said that, I trust that the presidents and Bob are doing their due diligence and will come up with the best decision for the future of the conference.

If next week the Big 12 comes out and says we are adding 4 teams and extending out GOR until 2040, the media narrative will change 180 degrees.

I believe Gorm's take up there...

"This conference is toast. Texas really ****** to many members and being the spoiled rich college brat in the conference to only crush it, **** u Texas." -scyclonekid

And scyclonekid's at the same time.

 

[cyclonestate]

Here is my insight for what it's worth (which isn't much). Not too far down the road, the government is going to intervene in all this madness.

Collegiate sports, football in particular, are no longer an amateur competition. Networks are now paying conferences billions (that's with a B), conferences are being realigned based one thing only - maximizing revenue, "student" athletes are being forced to fly half way across the country to compete, and power 5 conferences are breaking away from the NCAA general membership so they can make their own rules. It is no longer about the students' best interests. It's about the almighty dollar.

It's just a matter of time before the politicians threaten to remove the tax exempt status of the university athletic departments unless conferences reorganize based on sensible geographic boundaries and they bring some legitimacy to the term student-athlete.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Here is my insight for what it's worth (which isn't much). Not too far down the road, the government is going to intervene in all this madness.

Collegiate sports, football in particular, are no longer an amateur competition. Networks are now paying conferences billions (that's with a B), conferences are being realigned based one thing only - maximizing revenue, "student" athletes are being forced to fly half way across the country to compete, and power 5 conferences are breaking away from the NCAA general membership so they can make their own rules. It is no longer about the students' best interests. It's about the almighty dollar.

It's just a matter of time before the politicians threaten to remove the tax exempt status of the university athletic departments unless conferences reorganize based on sensible geographic boundaries and they bring some legitimacy to the term student-athlete.

I think the threat of this happening is what will keep every team that is currently in a P5 conference in a power conference long term.

 

[SNEDDS3]

Where was TCU when they joined?

 

[Mtowncyclone13]

Here is my insight for what it's worth (which isn't much). Not too far down the road, the government is going to intervene in all this madness.

Collegiate sports, football in particular, are no longer an amateur competition. Networks are now paying conferences billions (that's with a B), conferences are being realigned based one thing only - maximizing revenue, "student" athletes are being forced to fly half way across the country to compete, and power 5 conferences are breaking away from the NCAA general membership so they can make their own rules. It is no longer about the students' best interests. It's about the almighty dollar.

It's just a matter of time before the politicians threaten to remove the tax exempt status of the university athletic departments unless conferences reorganize based on sensible geographic boundaries and they bring some legitimacy to the term student-athlete.

As much as we don't want intervention im not opposed to it. Why are pro sports, with unlimited money, set up based on geography? Why isn't there a strict standard for rules enforcement that is uniform across all schools? UNC says their academic violations arent NCAA rules. So why even make students go to class-the ncaa can't enforce anything anyway.