Illinois matchup

[dahliaclone]

Two ESPN writers pick Iowa State. The bolded part is something I hadn't seen yet...

Gasaway: The Cyclones are excellent on D in part because they force an astounding number of turnovers. The Fighting Illini value the ball -- until they don't. An early-season loss to Marquette and one in February at Penn State both suggest the Illini can on occasion be pressured into coughing up the ball. ISU wins a close one.

Prediction: Iowa State 80, Illinois 78

Medcalf: We all know these two teams are excellent in contrasting ways. But what about the other elements of this matchup? Illinois has been a sub-100 team (163rd to be exact) in adjusted defensive efficiency since Feb. 1, per barttorvik.com. Teams with those numbers don't usually advance deep into the tournament. And the Illini now have to stop an Iowa State squad that has made 47% of its 3-point attempts over the last four games. I'll take the Cyclones' elite defense and improved shooting here.

Prediction: Iowa State 73, Illinois 70

 

[Skyh13]

ISU is often able to make up lesser offensive efficiency by way of generating turnovers, and then not turning it over themselves. A +10 turnover margin provides leeway in case of some below average shooting. Then if ISU is having a decent shooting night, it can truly put teams away, lest the other team be wildly efficient on offense.

Thats why, to me, winning the turnover battle, and winning it big, is super important.

 

[cayin]

Yeah, it kind of depends how you look at things collectively. Individually there was only really one 'bad' loss, BYU. Most of the other losses came in that 'coin flip' territory where 6/11 games and in between are mostly coin flips, but we only got Texas through those games.

That being said i think part of it is also because its the ACC that's been the beneficiary. They spent months whining about the big 12 and then suddenly it happened to work out where they benefitted from a couple big 12 losses in the tournament. Only 2 teams in the whole tournament are really overperforming their seed to make it to the sweet 16 (Clemson and NCST, though one could argue NCST losing is just as much about Kentucky shitting the bed in the first game) and they both did it on the backs of wins over big 12 teams.

The ACC played a 12 seed and a 14 seed in the second round. On top of that, Baylor was without Langston Love, Clemson caught a huge break there. KU at full strength, can beat anyone. They killed Houston, beat Tennessee, Kentucky, and they BEAT UCONN.

 

[mjhavlo76]

Second time. We put forth an effort like that, we could beat probably anyone in the country..

Which time, the first time we beat them or the second time we beat them?

 

[cytor]

So Shannon played at Texas Tech before transferring to Illinois..... I'm assuming TJ has seen him enough to know how to guard him.

 

[CY9008]

 

[RedlineSi]

I have dread in my heart for this game. Maybe its just because I'm a Cyclone fan and we're always waiting for the other shoe to drop, but some of the things Blum has said, as well as Medcalf have calmed my soul a bit.

I still think we're going to need to shoot lights out to win.

 

[RezClone]

I seriously love all the experts fawning over Illinois. Are they good? Yep. Are they very good? Maybe. Can they beat Iowa State? Absolutely....

It's ridiculous. I've watched about 15 or so videos. I'm not exaggerating when the only ISU pick I've seen is one guy in a betting video who said he's taking Iowa State to cover the spread.... IN THE THE FIRST HALF!

His partner said we can't score and Illinois will win the game by 9. Lol.

 

[cayin]

I have dread in my heart for this game. Maybe its just because I'm a Cyclone fan and we're always waiting for the other shoe to drop, but some of the things Blum has said, as well as Medcalf have calmed my soul a bit.

I still think we're going to need to shoot lights out to win.

This is our 4th Sweet 16 in the last 9 years. Just based on the law of averages, we are due to win one.

 

[RezClone]

Yep. You pull the torvik stats from just since tournament week and we rate out as the #1 team in the country in that stretch. We've been red hot.

Hot enough that if the line were set based just on that performance we'd be favored by double digits.

Now, do i expect us to fully maintain that going from a basically home environment for those games to being in a true neutral environment? No. But as long as we don't revert significantly i'd feel pretty good about this one.

Yup if you pull from any point in time Feb 3rd or later (our last 15 games), we are consistently in the top 5. Ahead of everyone other than UConn and Houston more often than not.

Meanwhile, Illinois during that time has consistently been around #14. Never higher than 9th.

 

[cayin]

It's ridiculous. I've watched about 15 or so videos. I'm not exaggerating when the only ISU pick I've seen is one guy in a betting video who said he's taking Iowa State to cover the spread.... IN THE THE FIRST HALF!

His partner said we can't score and Illinois will win the game by 9. Lol.

I saw that one too. I think we were scoring fine until we played Houston, that game took a lot out of us and hurt our scoring in the games after that. Plus coaches got to know us better. Yes we didn't score that much against WSU and had a terrible first half drought, but WSU also happens to play at a slow pace, they play good D, so it was never going to be a high scoring game anyway.

 

[Cyrocks]

I have dread in my heart for this game.

Good thing you are not a player on the squad.

Iowa State may lose the game, but it won't be because they are dreading the match up or are afraid of Illinois.

 

[RedlineSi]

Good thing you are not a player on the squad.

Iowa State may lose the game, but it won't be because they are dreading the match up or are afraid of Illinois.

Umm, where did I say the players were lol. Jesus, we're f'ing fans not players.

 

[madguy30]

Umm, where did I say the players were lol. Jesus, we're f'ing fans not players.

If the players had the nerves that I do during games they'd lose by 40 often haha.

 

[RezClone]

I will say, Illinois fans are by far the easiest to troll I've ever encountered. They really fancy themselves as some juggernaut program that's just caught a few bad breaks here and there. 19 years of disappointment hasn't diminished their confidence one bit.

Now the whole world is telling them how great they are. I think we have to factor in that that this is setting up nicely for a massive letdown. This Illinois team doesn't strike me as a group that keeps itself insulated and immune from the noise.

 

[ISU_Guy]

I have dread in my heart for this game. Maybe its just because I'm a Cyclone fan and we're always waiting for the other shoe to drop, but some of the things Blum has said, as well as Medcalf have calmed my soul a bit.

I still think we're going to need to shoot lights out to win.

When you are a top 4 seed in the tournament I kind of look at it like this:
1st game: need your C+/B- game to get past round one. (doesn't always happen that way but generally)
2nd game: Need your B game or better

In the remaining games, you basically need your A game and sometimes some help from the team you're playing.

So, I think it's safe to say that shooting the ball well will be a requirement of any game from now on.

 

[ISU_Guy]

I will say, Illinois fans are by far the easiest to troll I've ever encountered. They really fancy themselves as some juggernaut program that's just caught a few bad breaks here and there. 19 years of disappointment hasn't diminished their confidence one bit.

Now the whole world is telling them how great they are. I think we have to factor in that that this is setting up nicely for a massive letdown. This Illinois team doesn't strike me as a group that keeps itself insulated and immune from the noise.

Purdue getting beat by Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tourney really enabled them to inflate their ego

 

[NYCBFan]

Illinois' length worries me a lot more than Wazzu's. They are basically all 6'6" or 6'7" except Hawkins who is a skinny 6'10" and Dainja who is a robust 6'9"

They don't have more length than Washington State but they are way more athletic. From an athleticism standpoint, this might be the toughest matchup Iowa State has faced this season but Illinois hasn't faced a defense like Iowa State's either.

It's the most fascinating matchup of the Sweet 16 and I don't think that's a homer statement, some would say Houston-Duke but I think Houston will handle them.

 

[illinifan2023]

hey y’all. I respect the hell out of your program and your site. I think TJ is a hell of a coach and don’t know why the fans on our sites are just looking past y’all. I’m looking forward to our game tomorrow, and let me know if you have any questions about Illinois and I’ll be happy to try and answer them! Good luck!

 

[cayin]

hey y’all. I respect the hell out of your program and your site. I think TJ is a hell of a coach and don’t know why the fans on our sites are just looking past y’all. I’m looking forward to our game tomorrow, and let me know if you have any questions about Illinois and I’ll be happy to try and answer them! Good luck!

well, as long as you are a hawk hater, you are welcome here.