Illinois matchup

[RezClone]

And no lead will be safe if for some reason ISU gets one that's sizable.

People will be up in arms about it being a B1G team but Illinois is good no matter the conference.

I don't necessarily disagree, but what I will say is that's nothing new and firmly in our comfort zone. I don't think anything Illinois can do to us changes that unless we go down by 25 or more (sounds crazy but I think that's what it would realistically take to get doubt to creep in for this group and get us off our game.)

1)We are comfortable being uncomfortable. It's probably our biggest strength.
2)We'll be well-rested with plenty of recent shot making for all our guys to fall back on mentally.

For those two reasons I think we are going to win this game. Now Saturday, we will probably be very vulnerable on both fronts to a team like UConn. But cruise-control Illinois? Nah, I think we got this one.

 

[nrg4isu]

I haven't seen Illinois play, but the comp of Baylor scares me a bit. Baylor wasn't a excellent team this year, but they are the type of team when they're on, they're very hard to beat.

Similarly, it sounds to me like if we play our A to B+ game we have a very good chance of winning. If we're struggling to hit those midrange shots it could get ugly.

All that said, I really like our coaching staff to put together a very well thought out game plan and have our guys ready to go.

Friday is going to be a rough day. Gonna be tough to sleep after the game is over, regardless of outcome.

 

[madguy30]

I don't necessarily disagree, but what I will say is that's nothing new and firmly in our comfort zone. I don't think anything Illinois can do to us changes that unless we go down by 25 or more (sounds crazy but I think that's what it would realistically take to get doubt to creep in for this group and get us off our game.)

1)We are comfortable being uncomfortable. It's probably our biggest strength.
2)We'll be well-rested with plenty of recent shot making for all our guys to fall back on mentally.

For those two reasons I think we are going to win this game. Now Saturday, we will probably be very vulnerable on both fronts to a team like UConn. But cruise-control Illinois? Nah, I think we got this one.

I'm speaking more to the psyche of a few on CF that think ISU is the only team involved in games where big leads go away or that ISU should just keep up the same burst of energy for 40 minutes.

No worries about the team, haha.

 

[RezClone]

I haven't seen Illinois play, but the comp of Baylor scares me a bit. Baylor wasn't a excellent team this year, but they are the type of team when they're on, they're very hard to beat.

Similarly, it sounds to me like if we play our A to B+ game we have a very good chance of winning. If we're struggling to hit those midrange shots it could get ugly.

All that said, I really like our coaching staff to put together a very well thought out game plan and have our guys ready to go.

Friday is going to be a rough day. Gonna be tough to sleep after the game is over, regardless of outcome.

Illinois relies on getting more of their points at the rim. Baylor is much more of a jump shooting team except for lobs to their big guy.

It's not a bad comp, but it's not necessarily the best one either. Baylor and BYU can beat us pretty much exclusively from the perimeter. Illinois is a classic downhill isolation team. The one exception is the back you down cutter game they have used from Dumask, but we're going to double that and protect the paint like always.

They have very capable shooters, but that's never been their game. Everything works off of getting points in the paint. Stopping that is Kyle Green Otzball 101.

 

[RezClone]

I'm speaking more to the psyche of a few on CF that think ISU is the only team involved in games where big leads go away or that ISU should just keep up the same burst of energy for 40 minutes.

No worries about the team, haha.

Ah, I got you. I see that now.

 

[iastatefan1]

I went to the last 2 sweet 16 games in Chicago, but am not attending in boston: advantage iowa state. Everyone is talking about their offense vs our defense. To me it's simple, tamin, momcilovic, keyshon in that order. If tamin and momcilovic stay on the tear they are on we will get enough stops. Haven't watched much illinios, but can their big shoot?

 

[RezClone]

I went to the last 2 sweet 16 games in Chicago, but am not attending in boston: advantage iowa state. Everyone is talking about their offense vs our defense. To me it's simple, tamin, momcilovic, keyshon in that order. If tamin and momcilovic stay on the tear they are on we will get enough stops. Haven't watched much illinios, but can their big shoot?

Coleman Hawkins can, but he's more of a finesse skinny stretch 4. Long and athletic with some handle, but not the most physical guy.

Their best big right now is Dain Dainja, but no he's not a shooter. Very strong high energy player big, kind of a more skilled offensive Rob Jones, without the intangibles.

I've watched them quite a bit. Very familiar with their team. Feel free to ask away.

 

[cayin]

We can't get in one of those 4 plus minute scoring droughts that we seem to go through a lot. We got away with it a lot this year including WSU and still won the games. But Illinois seems to be the kind of team that could blow us out if go on another one of those.

 

[Yellow Snow]

Start at 20 min. Good insight.

 

[AuH2O]

The b12 has not done nearly as well as anticipated. The b10 has done much better than I expected. Will be interesting.

You didn’t expect Purdue and Illinois to be in the sweet 16?

The Big 12 has disappointed. The two Big 10 teams left have wins over Grambling, Morehead St, Duquesne, and Utah St. The rest of the Big 10 is out.

 

[madguy30]

You didn’t expect Purdue and Illinois to be in the sweet 16?

The Big 12 has disappointed. The two Big 10 teams left have wins over Grambling, Morehead St, Duquesne, and Utah St. The rest of the Big 10 is out.

And I'm not sure what the Big 12 was supposed to do. Get three teams instead of 2 this far if Baylor doesn't trip up?

 

[AuH2O]

Coleman Hawkins can, but he's more of a finesse skinny stretch 4. Long and athletic with some handle, but not the most physical guy.

Their best big right now is Dain Dainja, but no he's not a shooter. Very strong high energy player big, kind of a more skilled offensive Rob Jones, without the intangibles.

I've watched them quite a bit. Very familiar with their team. Feel free to ask away.

Hawkins seems to be a huge X Factor. He can make some great plays, but he seems to make a lot of bone-headed plays trying to do too much.

 

[Cyched]

And I'm not sure what the Big 12 was supposed to do. Get three teams instead of 2 this far if Baylor doesn't trip up?

Think BYU losing to Duquesne is the only “bad” loss I can come up with.

KU underwhelmed with a near miss to Samford and blown out by the Zags, but Zags are playing well.

Baylor loss wasn’t great, but Clemson isn’t bad.

Tech lost to a hot NCSt team. TCU didn’t look good but USU doesn’t seem to be a slouch despite the Purdue loss.

If you want to talk about letdowns, talk to the SEC about their performance.

 

[dahliaclone]

I seriously love all the experts fawning over Illinois. Are they good? Yep. Are they very good? Maybe. Can they beat Iowa State? Absolutely.

But the rhetoric of them playing their best ball (and they probably are) is a bit laughable to me. Yes, they are 9-1 in their last ten but those wins are:

• Iowa
• Minnesota
• Wisconsin
• Iowa
• Ohio State
• Nebraska
• Wisconsin
• Morehead State
• Duquense

NOTE: No ranked teams on that list

Meanwhile, Iowa State is also 9-1 in our last ten and the wins are:

• West Virginia
• Oklahoma
• UCF
• #20 BYU
• Kansas State by 19
• #14 Baylor by 14
• #1 Houston by 28
• SDSU by 17
• #25 Washington State by 11

Again, I am not saying we shouldn't be ready for a brawl with Illinois and should prepare for an L. But it's funny they're the 'hot' team when objectively Iowa State is substantially 'hotter'. People love offense...I get it.

 

[alarson]

Think BYU losing to Duquesne is the only “bad” loss I can come up with.

KU underwhelmed with a near miss to Samford and blown out by the Zags, but Zags are playing well.

Baylor loss wasn’t great, but Clemson isn’t bad.

Tech lost to a hot NCSt team. TCU didn’t look good but USU doesn’t seem to be a slouch despite the Purdue loss.

If you want to talk about letdowns, talk to the SEC about their performance.

Yeah, it kind of depends how you look at things collectively. Individually there was only really one 'bad' loss, BYU. Most of the other losses came in that 'coin flip' territory where 6/11 games and in between are mostly coin flips, but we only got Texas through those games.

That being said i think part of it is also because its the ACC that's been the beneficiary. They spent months whining about the big 12 and then suddenly it happened to work out where they benefitted from a couple big 12 losses in the tournament. Only 2 teams in the whole tournament are really overperforming their seed to make it to the sweet 16 (Clemson and NCST, though one could argue NCST losing is just as much about Kentucky shitting the bed in the first game) and they both did it on the backs of wins over big 12 teams.

 

[CyNews]

Kapono played in the McDonalds AA game in Hilton.

Yep.

 

[alarson]

I seriously love all the experts fawning over Illinois. Are they good? Yep. Are they very good? Maybe. Can they beat Iowa State? Absolutely.

But the rhetoric of them playing their best ball (and they probably are) is a bit laughable to me. Yes, they are 9-1 in their last ten but those wins are:

• Iowa
• Minnesota
• Wisconsin
• Iowa
• Ohio State
• Nebraska
• Wisconsin
• Morehead State
• Duquense

NOTE: No ranked teams on that list

Meanwhile, Iowa State is also 9-1 in our last ten and the wins are:

• West Virginia
• Oklahoma
• UCF
• #20 BYU
• Kansas State by 19
• #14 Baylor by 14
• #1 Houston by 28
• SDSU by 17
• #25 Washington State by 11

Again, I am not saying we shouldn't be ready for a brawl with Illinois and should prepare for an L. But it's funny they're the 'hot' team when objectively Iowa State is substantially 'hotter'. People love offense...I get it.

Yep. You pull the torvik stats from just since tournament week and we rate out as the #1 team in the country in that stretch. We've been red hot.

Hot enough that if the line were set based just on that performance we'd be favored by double digits.

Now, do i expect us to fully maintain that going from a basically home environment for those games to being in a true neutral environment? No. But as long as we don't revert significantly i'd feel pretty good about this one.

 

[legi]

If I am not mistaken our last 4 games our 3pt shooting is around 45% which has been incredible. We need to be in the 40% + range to win this.

 

[cal-cyclone]

I seriously love all the experts fawning over Illinois. Are they good? Yep. Are they very good? Maybe. Can they beat Iowa State? Absolutely.

But the rhetoric of them playing their best ball (and they probably are) is a bit laughable to me. Yes, they are 9-1 in their last ten but those wins are:

• Iowa
• Minnesota
• Wisconsin
• Iowa
• Ohio State
• Nebraska
• Wisconsin
• Morehead State
• Duquense

NOTE: No ranked teams on that list

Meanwhile, Iowa State is also 9-1 in our last ten and the wins are:

• West Virginia
• Oklahoma
• UCF
• #20 BYU
• Kansas State by 19
• #14 Baylor by 14
• #1 Houston by 28
• SDSU by 17
• #25 Washington State by 11

Again, I am not saying we shouldn't be ready for a brawl with Illinois and should prepare for an L. But it's funny they're the 'hot' team when objectively Iowa State is substantially 'hotter'. People love offense...I get it.

100% this post. Illinois is playing really well. But I don't the the insanity that goes along with people saying 'what a tough schedule they played'. Just look at those last 10 games. What a farce. Illinois fans think they are going to clock us because they pounded Duquense (who plays just like Iowas State according to those Illinois fans). If you think Duquense is anywhere near Iowa State you are an idiot.

 

[dahliaclone]

Yep. You pull the torvik stats from just since tournament week and we rate out as the #1 team in the country in that stretch. We've been red hot.

Hot enough that if the line were set based just on that performance we'd be favored by double digits.

Now, do i expect us to fully maintain that going from a basically home environment for those games to being in a true neutral environment? No. But as long as we don't revert significantly i'd feel pretty good about this one.

It actually makes more sense to NOT use polls but NET and KenPom and the point is proven even more...

Iowa 62 NET 55 KenPom x2
Minnesota 89 NET 78 KenPom
Wisconsin 21 NET #18 KenPom x2
Ohio State 49 NET 48 KenPom
Nebraska 33 NET 30 KenPom
Morehead State 106 NET 116 KenPom
Duquense 80 NET 87 KenPom

West Virginia 156 NET 144 KenPom
Oklahoma 46 NET 45 KenPom
UCF 61 NET 68 KenPom
BYU 12 NET 19 KenPom
Kansas State 70 NET 71 KenPom
Baylor 15 NET 15 KenPom
Houston 1 NET 2 KenPom
SDSU 135 NET 136 KenPom
Washington State 44 NET 39 KenPom

The best wins they have are 2 over a good not great Wisconsin team and Nebraska who is in the 30 range in the metrics. Meanwhile we have 3 double digit wins over top 20 teams