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Housing market

SCNCY said:
All of the Boomers are beginning to retire now. They will probably hold on to their current houses for maybe a decade or so after retirement. After that, they will probably be downsizing to smaller houses or retirement communities. When that happens, I think you will begin to see more supply on the market and leveling off of housing prices.

I said this in another thread a couple months back, but fear that housing prices will level off or fall once Boomers begin to move in to retirement communities and/or passing away. When that happens, supply will increase and with the lack of population growth in our country, there will be less demand to purchase that supply. I think this will begin come in to play in 15-20 years from now. Will this actually happen, I don't know, but it's something I keeping an eye out for.
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I'm really not sure about that. I've said it before that just looking out my front door I see multiple homes with empty nest parents and retired folks.

Homes that would've already been back on the market are not and only housing 1 or 2 people. One neighbor is retired and a snowbird. So they're taking up two homes.

I guess they'll die at some point....
 
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Boomers started retiring years ago, the oldest are pushing 80. While any migration they do should help, this market is so ****** up for a lot of other reasons that it may not be as big a deal as you'd hope. Plus they own more than one place more often than previous gens. I'm selfishly open to whatever market correction it takes! :p
 
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KnappShack said:
I'm really not sure about that. I've said it before that just looking out my front door I see multiple homes with empty nest parents and retired folks.

Homes that would've already been back on the market are not and only housing 1 or 2 people. One neighbor is retired and a snowbird. So they're taking up two homes.

I guess they'll die at some point....
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What kind of homes are in your area? If they're ranch style homes, I could see said people staying longer. I am referring to the 4-5 bedroom two story houses that boomers are living in. But at some point, I see these people downsizing or moving in to retirement homes. Bottom line, Boomers own a lot of real estate, once they no longer need it, its going to hit the market.

And I'm not making some big Nostradamus prediction here. This is something that worries me and I am keeping an eye on. I may be wrong, and that'll be fine.
 
SCNCY said:
What kind of homes are in your area? If they're ranch style homes, I could see said people staying longer. I am referring to the 4-5 bedroom two story houses that boomers are living in. But at some point, I see these people downsizing or moving in to retirement homes. Bottom line, Boomers own a lot of real estate, once they no longer need it, its going to hit the market.

And I'm not making some big Nostradamus prediction here. This is something that worries me and I am keeping an eye on. I may be wrong, and that'll be fine.
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This worries you why?
 
drmwevr08 said:
This worries you why?
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Because as a 34 year old homeowner, I foresee myself operating in a high value housing market when in potentially 20 years, the value of the house I am living in at the time flat lines or declines. Maybe I'll be fine, but I'm just worried about the value of houses decreasing due to high supply and low demand for reasons I listed above.
 
wxman1 said:
I think there are a lot of tire kickers out there but significantly fewer serious people. Our home is move-in ready with no updates needed. Plenty of interest but a month in and no offers mostly because there is a hill in the back yard.
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What's the online presence?
Could that potentially be scaring folks off?
 
SCNCY said:
Because as a 34 year old homeowner, I foresee myself operating in a high value housing market when in potentially 20 years, the value of the house I am living in at the time flat lines or declines. Maybe I'll be fine, but I'm just worried about the value of houses decreasing due to high supply and low demand for reasons I listed above.
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Don't.
a) whatever decline may occur won't make you worse off than you are now, or were when you bought. Unless you buy and sell more before then.
b) in the extremely unlikely event that you aren't making good money when you do sell, you still had a nice stable place for your fam for 20 years.
c)if somehow in 20 years your sale is a financial problem for you its likely that the world is in such shape that it's low on your list of things to give a crap about.
 
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drmwevr08 said:
Don't.
a) whatever decline may occur won't make you worse off than you are now, or were when you bought. Unless you buy and sell more before then.
b) in the extremely unlikely event that you aren't making good money when you do sell, you still had a nice stable place for your fam for 20 years.
c)if somehow in 20 years your sale is a financial problem for you its likely that the world is in such shape that it's low on your list of things to give a crap about.
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I am planning on upgrading from our starter home to a long term family home in 5-10 years. But after that, I don't plan on buying/selling again until retirement.
 
SCNCY said:
Because as a 34 year old homeowner, I foresee myself operating in a high value housing market when in potentially 20 years, the value of the house I am living in at the time flat lines or declines. Maybe I'll be fine, but I'm just worried about the value of houses decreasing due to high supply and low demand for reasons I listed above.
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My crystal ball doesn't go out 20 years. America could be 5 different countries by then.

My neighborhood is mostly those 4-5 bed homes. The older folks are aging in place. If you're in a marketable place then I'd guess you'll be fine.

If you live in Illinois you're pretty much ******
 
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SCNCY said:
All of the Boomers are beginning to retire now. They will probably hold on to their current houses for maybe a decade or so after retirement. After that, they will probably be downsizing to smaller houses or retirement communities. When that happens, I think you will begin to see more supply on the market and leveling off of housing prices.

I said this in another thread a couple months back, but fear that housing prices will level off or fall once Boomers begin to move in to retirement communities and/or passing away. When that happens, supply will increase and with the lack of population growth in our country, there will be less demand to purchase that supply. I think this will begin come in to play in 15-20 years from now. Will this actually happen, I don't know, but it's something I keeping an eye out for.
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https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...-baby-boomers-as-americas-largest-generation/

I think this concern of a void left by baby Boomers is a little over done. There are already more Millenials alive today than Boomers, and Gen X will outnumber them in a few years as well. The population is here to replace them. Now you could talk about the younger generations not having the purchasing power to fill that gap, but that potential gap in the market is being created by dying Boomers. And when Boomers die their wealth and assets don't vanish, they will be inherited by Gen X and Millenials. So I can see bumps along the way with the transition, but notassive corrections.
 
aeroclone said:
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...-baby-boomers-as-americas-largest-generation/

I think this concern of a void left by baby Boomers is a little over done. There are already more Millenials alive today than Boomers, and Gen X will outnumber them in a few years as well. The population is here to replace them. Now you could talk about the younger generations not having the purchasing power to fill that gap, but that potential gap in the market is being created by dying Boomers. And when Boomers die their wealth and assets don't vanish, they will be inherited by Gen X and Millenials. So I can see bumps along the way with the transition, but notassive corrections.
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I'm just skeptical that wealth will be passed down as we assume. It's already ad hominem within the finance world that old white dudes hate the younger investors and their preferences. That's only a microcasm of what permeates the rest of people's sentiment.
 
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BWRhasnoAC said:
I'm just skeptical that wealth will be passed down as we assume. It's already ad hominem within the finance world that old white dudes hate the younger investors and their preferences. That's only a microcasm of what permeates the rest of people's sentiment.
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It has to go somewhere. I have to think if tasked with giving it away or leaving it to children and grandchildren, most Boomers are going to pass it on. They may hate the generation as a whole, but that doesn't mean that view extends to their own family tree.
 
aeroclone said:
It has to go somewhere. I have to think if tasked with giving it away or leaving it to children and grandchildren, most Boomers are going to pass it on. They may hate the generation as a whole, but that doesn't mean that view extends to their own family tree.
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Agree, like most things, people only care about things until it affects them. So most parents are going to make sure their children are taken care of, it’s all the other kids that are the problem.
 
BWRhasnoAC said:
I'm just skeptical that wealth will be passed down as we assume. It's already ad hominem within the finance world that old white dudes hate the younger investors and their preferences. That's only a microcasm of what permeates the rest of people's sentiment.
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I'm hoping pyramids make a comeback.
 
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